Brewers vs. Braves Odds, Preview, Picks & Game 3 Prediction
Brewers vs. Braves Odds
| Brewers Odds | +106 |
| Braves Odds | -124 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 11 |
| Time | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Monday afternoon, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Atlanta Braves will battle in the National League Division Series at Truist Park. Entering play, Milwaukee has lost 11 of their last 16 contests. Atlanta has won 13 of their last 16 games. In Game 3, the Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the hill. He will be opposed by Ian Anderson. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Braves securing a commanding 2-1 series lead, pricing Atlanta as -124 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Milwaukee Brewers (+106)
Across 144.1 innings of work in 2021, Peralta posted a 2.81 ERA, 2.72 xERA, and a 3.12 FIP. He ranked in the 78th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout percentage and whiff-rate. Peralta’s command is an issue at times, but it is unlikely to be too problematic against an Atlanta offense that ranks only 13th in walk rate against right-handed pitching. On the road this season, Peralta posted a 3.00 FIP and a 1.07 WHIP. Bettors should expect a strong outing from him in Game 3.
Milwaukee ranked 15th in OPS, 16th in ISO, seventh in walk-rate, and 19th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching during the regular season. However, the Brewers struggled mightily at the plate in September, and those struggles have carried over into the postseason. In Game 1, this lineup produced only two runs on five hits. On Saturday, this group was even worse—totaling only six hits in a shutout loss. Anderson is the most hittable starting pitcher that Milwaukee has seen in this series, but it remains uncertain if this offense will be able to take advantage of the favorable matchup.
Over the final month of the regular season, Milwaukee’s relief corps ranked 27th in bullpen FIP. Devin Williams landing on the injured list prior to the postseason did nothing to help a unit that has been a liability in recent weeks. Outside of Josh Hader, there are few trustworthy options for Manager Craig Counsell to turn to in the latter frames. Milwaukee’s recipe for success relies precariously on Peralta’s ability to get deep into this ballgame, to minimize the exposure of this unit before Hader can get into the action.
Atlanta Braves (-124)
Anderson was outstanding as a rookie during the COVID-shortened campaign. However, he regressed significantly as a sophomore—posting a 3.58 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 4.12 FIP in 24 starts in 2021. He ranked below league average in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, and chase rate. Yet, Anderson was at his best when he was pitching at home, delivering a 3.66 FIP anda 1.13 WHIP across 61.1 innings of work. After returning from the injured list in late-August, Anderson had a 3.62 ERA and a 5.67 FIP in his final six trips to the mound in the regular season. He could be in for a rough afternoon on Monday.
Against right-handed pitching this year, Atlanta ranked sixth in OPS and fourth in ISO, but also ranked 23rd in strikeout percentage at the plate. This lineup does not profile well against a pitcher such as Peralta, who struck-out 33.6 percent of hitters who he faced this year. Though the Braves have the better offense on paper, they have scored only four runs on 11 hits in the first two games of this series. Expect another low-scoring output from this group in Game 3.
In September, Atlanta’s relief corps ranked ninth in bullpen FIP. Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, Will Smith, and A.J. Minter combine to form a formidable unit in the late innings. Manager Brian Snitker used both Matzek and Jackson in each of the first two games, putting their availability for Monday in question. If the Braves are forced to rely on other options in the latter frames, Milwaukee could capitalize offensively.
Brewers vs. Braves – Game 3 Picks
Sportsbooks have been uncharacteristically poor at identifying winners in the MLB in recent weeks. Underdogs dominated the final weeks of the regular season, and there have been a number of underdog winners already in the postseason. In this matchup, the wrong team is favored. Milwaukee has the better starting pitcher and the more rested bullpen. Atlanta has a better offense, but their bats are not particularly well-equipped to do damage against a high-strikeout pitcher such as Peralta. Milwaukee has a good opportunity to take a 2-1 series lead on Monday afternoon.
PICK: Brewers ML (+106)
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