Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +155 |
| Brewers Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Tue, Oct. 3 |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN2 |
The first evening game of the 2023 MLB Postseason will feature the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers. The Diamondbacks finished the regular season 84-78 to earn an NL Wild Card spot. The Brewers finished 92-70 en route to winning the NL Central division. Arizona will hand the ball to Brandon Pfaadt in Game 1, with Corbin Burnes opposing him for Milwaukee. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET from American Family Field.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Brewers as -180 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pfaadt toeing the rubber for Arizona in series opener
To put it bluntly, Brandon Pfaadt was not effective during the regular season, finishing with a 5.72 ERA, 4.58 xERA, 5.18 FIP, and a 1.41 WHIP across 96.0 innings of work. Across his final six turns in the rotation, he was only marginally better, with a 4.98 ERA, 4.71 FIP, and a 1.40 WHIP. Even those numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, considering the fact that he faced only one playoff team in that stretch.
Pfaadt struggled against both right- and left-handed batters this summer, with a 4.76 FIP against right-handed hitters and a 5.67 FIP across the platoon. He was at his worst on the road, where he delivered a 5.90 FIP in 2023. Milwaukee was close to a league-average offense against right-handed pitching during the month of September, but there is no such thing as a favorable matchup for Pfaadt.
Diamondbacks lineup facing a tough test in Game 1
Across the final month of the regular season, the Arizona offense ranked 28th in OPS, 28th in ISO, 11th in walk percentage, and 12th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. During that stretch, they ranked 20th in line-drive rate and hit the 10th-most ground balls of any team in the league. Facing one of the league’s premier pitchers in Game 1, the Diamondbacks are likely to find runs difficult to produce.
Can Arizona’s bullpen compete in October?
The Arizona bullpen had the third-best ERA of any relief unit in baseball during September, but there was a large discrepancy between their 2.31 ERA and 4.00 FIP. The Diamondbacks benefited tremendously from a league-low .227 BABIP in that stretch, which made their WHIP look much better than it should have. Arizona’s relievers generated only a 22.3% strikeout rate during the last month of the regular season, which further supports the notion that this group has overperformed of late. Regression is likely sooner rather than later, and perhaps as soon as the Wild Card round.
Milwaukee Brewers
Burnes peaking at the right time
Corbin Burnes struggled during the early portion of the regular season but seemed to figure things out during the second half of the year. From July 1 to the end of September, Burnes posted a 2.72 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, and held opponents to a .176 batting average. During that run, Burnes did an excellent job suppressing quality contact, allowing a 3.7% barrel rate. The net result was him allowing two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his final 16 outings. Following an abbreviated outing on September 28, Burnes is plenty rested going into today’s matchup, which should lead to a strong performance on the mound.
What to expect from Milwaukee offense
During September, only the San Diego Padres had a higher ground ball rate against right-handed pitching than Milwaukee. The Brewers also ranked dead-last in line-drive rate in that span, which led to mediocre offensive numbers overall – ranking 12th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 9th in walk percentage, and 18th in strikeout rate. The Brewers have a favorable matchup in this one against an inferior starting pitcher, Pfaadt, but there are obvious concerns here related to quality of contact.
Brew Crew relief unit ready for playoffs
Josh Hader is no longer at the backend of this bullpen, but there is still plenty to like about the relievers that manager Craig Counsell has at his disposal going into these playoffs. Across the last month of the regular season, Milwaukee’s arm barn ranked 5th in FIP, 7th in WHIP, 9th in strikeout rate, and 25th in walk percentage. If this unit can limit free passes against an aggressive Arizona offense, they should be able to keep run scoring to a minimum in the latter frames.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers – Picks & Predictions
Though Brandon Pfaadt struggled mightily during the regular season, he gets a favorable matchup here against a Milwaukee offense that was far from elite down the stretch of the regular season. On the other side, Corbin Burnes has been dominant since the beginning of July and gets to face an anemic Arizona offense at home in Game 1. Avoid the Diamondbacks bullpen in this spot and take the under for the first five innings.
PICK: Under 4.5 – First Five Innings (-120, Fanatics Sportsbook)