Corbin Burnes Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

An eight game Wednesday night slate includes one pitcher above $10K on both sites, one pitcher barely reaching that price point on DraftKings only and one more exceeding $9K on both. The 14 Giants Corbin Burnes struck out last time out not only represents a season high, but the first time he’d even punched out more than six in his last six starts. Pushing his strikeout rate back up to 31.3% (24.6 K-BB%) it was also his first Quality Start in five attempts. His 2.93 ERA is very much in line with a 2.94 SIERA and 2.94 xFIP. Burnes is in a tough spot tonight (Cardinals 120 wRC+ at home, 111 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP) in a great park with pitcher friendly weather expected. While he’s dominated the Cardinals twice this year, they have been the second best offense in the league against cutters since the break (1.77 wFC/C). Burnes throws his 56.2% of the time (-1.2 RV/100, 28.5 Whiff%). Burnes is your top projected pitcher on this slate, but only a middling projected value with a price tag of $10.5K or higher. Check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out if there are any other pitchers worth paying up for.

The Tuesday night slate includes the full 15 on DraftKings, while FanDuel wisely omits the second game of the St Louis/Chicago double-header to avoid running into lineup confirmation issues should the first game run long. It’s a season record seven $10K pitchers on the board with two more reaching the $9K mark on both sites. The most expensive pitcher on the board, Corbin Burnes hasn’t had a lot of ceiling games with just three Quality Starts in his last six and more than six strikeouts in just two of those starts, but still owns a tremendous 25.2 K-BB% and has allowed 5.5% Barrels/BBE on the season. He’s recorded sixth inning outs in 20 of his last 23 starts and all non-FIP estimators are below three. He runs into the top offense in the league tonight. Though the Dodgers were shut out by Eric Lauer and friends last night, their 126 wRC+ both at home and vs RHP (21.3 K%) tops the board in either category. With the most difficult matchup on a loaded pitching board, Burnes projects as just the sixth best arm tonight and a middle to bottom of the board value. On a positive note, this is likely the lowest ownership you’ll see Burnes at all season, which is probably worth taking a shot on in GPPs. All of tonight’s most expensive arms, from the most volatile to the potentially overpriced to the top projected pitcher on the board, are covered in Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Virtually everything on a chaotic 13 game slate deserves a disclaimer with the trade deadline pushed back to 6pm ET this year, but we can probably be fairly certain that none of the four $10K pitchers on tonight’s slate, nor the additional one costing more than $9K on either are going to be traded today. Many of them are also in great spots. Corbin Burnes has a 34.7 K% over his last 11 starts with at least eight in all but three of those starts and double digits in three of his last four. He has seven Quality Starts in his last eight and has allowed just four barrels over his last 12. While his 2.31 ERA is more than a quarter run below all estimators, all are below three. It’s a great matchup against the Pirates, who have an 84 wRC+ and board high split 25.5 K% vs RHP this year. They also have a 57 wRC+ over the last week that’s second lowest in the league. Burnes utilizes his cutter 55% of the time (-1.7 RV/100). The Pirates are the worst offense in the league against cutters (-1.56 wFC/C), although some of that is likely due to Burnes’s influence. Burnes is the most expensive pitcher on the board at $11.3K on FanDuel and is essentially tied for the top projection on the board. He is the sixth best DraftKings projected value, but merely a middle of the board one on FanDuel. For more on top of the board arms in great spots tonigh plus one potentially over-priced onet, check out Tuesday's PlateIQ Live Blog.

A sizeable Thursday night 11 game slate features five pitchers above the $10K price point on FanDuel, though only one on DraftKings. While no other pitcher reaches $9K on both sites, several are in the $8K range with some upside as well. Corbin Burnes is the most expensive pitcher on the board, costing more than $11K on FanDuel and $10.6K on DraftKings, nearly $1K more than any other pitcher. He owns the top strikeout rate on the board (32.4%) and has at least eight in six of his last eight starts. He’s thrown five straight Quality Starts and has walked just 6.3%, allowing 5.7% Barrels/BBE on the season. With 12 of his 14 barrels leaving the yard, a 2.68 xERA is his second lowest estimator, while a 2.99 FIP is his highest. All run a bit above his 2.20 ERA with a .243 BABIP and 85.7 LOB%, but nobody’s complaining about estimators below three. Also, with the Milwaukee bullpen heavily used yesterday, he could be pushed even further in a close game in San Francisco (103 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP). Burnes is your top projected pitcher on Thursday night, but the high price point makes him just the sixth best projected value. For more on tonight’s loaded pitching board, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A moderate sized 10 game slate on Friday offers two pitchers above $10K on both sites with another exceeding that mark only on DraftKings. A 32.4 K% for Corbin Burnes tops the slate. He’s failed to produce a Quality Start only three times since his first of the season, completing seven innings in half (seven) of those starts. Home runs are up a bit this year with 12 (14.3 HR/FB), but he’s only registered two barrels that haven’t left the yard with just 34.8% of his contact at 95 mph EV or above. A 26.7 K-BB% produces non-FIP estimators that are all above, but within half a run of his 2.41 ERA. Despite the single batter barrage a few Pirates have gone on over the last few weeks (three players with three homer games), this is still an offense with just an 88 wRC+ and 25.0 K% vs RHP. The latter number, the second highest split on the board. This combination of factors gives him the top pitcher projection tonight as well as the second best point per dollar projection on either site. Expect Burnes to be quite popular tonight. Burnes is the most expensive pitcher on the board on FanDuel, but only second most expensive on DraftKings. For more on possible pivots, as well as a potential slate breaker, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Corbin Burnes is the only $10K pitcher on both sites on a fairly large 12 game slate, though Zac Gallen is more expensive than him on FanDuel with a $1.6K difference in price between sites. Chris Bassitt is also exactly $10K on FanDuel, but $400 less on DraftKings. Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Max Fried and Walker Buehler are all also $9K or above on both sites. Needless to say, this is a very healthy pitching board. Burnes is the top projected pitcher (PlateIQ) on either site tonight. While his 31.5 K% is five points behind Dylan Cease, his 17.9 SwStr% tops the board and he’s walked just five batters over his last seven starts. He’s also completed six innings in seven straight (six Quality Starts) with at least 95 pitches in all seven. All estimators are above his 2.26 ERA, but only his FIP (3.41) more than a run so with a 17.4 HR/FB that’s bound to regress. Eight of his 12 barrels (9.8%) have left the yard. The Padres have just an 89 wRC+ with a 22.5 K% vs RHP and San Diego is certainly a park upgrade for Burnes. This is a decent spot for a great pitcher on a board that might split ownership enough so that he won’t be overwhelmingly popular. For a lengthy analysis of all of tonight’s top arms, including the pitcher who tops the board with a strikeout rate five points higher than anyone else, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Weather may again be the headliner of Tuesday night’s slate, but not in the same way as last night. Thankfully, no games seem to be at risk of cancellation, but cold temperatures and strong winds throughout the country could play a large part in results before the night is done. FanDuel is offering 10 games tonight, while DraftKings will additionally offer the second game in Washington for a total of 11. Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher to reach the $10K mark on both sites, but is the most expensive on neither. He then dominated the Orioles in Baltimore last time out, striking out eight of 25 with a walk in three hits after struggling with his command at Wrigley (three walks) on Opening Day. His 16.1 SwStr% is within half a point of last year’s rate. Burnes has a 2.79 SIERA over the last two calendar years. The projected lineup for the Pirates includes just two batters below a 22.5 K% vs RHP since last year. Burnes is the top projected pitcher on both sites and potentially the top value on DraftKings as well, though may have some competition when it comes to ownership rates.

Joe Musgrove costs $11K on FanDuel, but just $8.6K on DraftKings at home against the Reds (48 wRC+ vs RHP, 50 wRC+ last seven days). Picking up right up where he left off last year, he’s struck out 14 of 45 batters with an 86.5 mph EV and just two barrels (6.5%) through two starts. He hasn’t walked a batter yet and has a 21.1 K% since the start of the 2020 season, over which all estimators have been below four. Musgrove is the number three pitcher overall in terms of projections (PlateIQ) and a great value on DraftKings.

Walker Buehler is DraftKings’ most expensive arm ($10.7K) and exactly $1K less on FanDuel. He’s struck out just nine of 45 with five walks and four barrels, but just one has left the yard and half his contact has been on the ground. His strikeout rate is more good than elite (26% last year) and his swinging strike rate has never exceeded 12.3%. Since the start of last season, he has a .248 BABIP, 80.8 LOB% and 10 HR/FB. These things shouldn’t be sustainable as estimators run nearly a run above his 2.51 ERA over this span. That’s not to say he’s not a good or even very good pitcher, but that he may be a tad over-valued, though there’s something to say for a guy who gave his team at least six innings in all but four starts last year. He’s failed to do so yet this year though. However, only two batters in the projected Atlanta lineup exceed a .325 wOBA vs RHP since last season with five batters above a 25 K%. This may be a better matchup than we suspect, but as a top five overall point total projection, Buehler is not nearly a top projected value on either site, which could keep ownership low.

Framber Valdez costs $10.2K on DK, $700 less on FD. He generated a ridiculous 70.3 GB% over 22 starts last year and has improved on that with a 73.9% rate over two starts this year. He did walk five Diamondbacks last time out and struggled with control last season (10.1 BB%). His sinker velocity is up nearly a mile per hour with a slight increase on the whiff rate (17.2%) so far. He’s struck out nine of 39 batters overall and generally goes pretty deep into games. He’s also a top five overall projected pitcher on either site, but the matchup could be a bit tricky tonight. While there are five batters in the projected Angels’ lineup with at least a 24.5 K% vs LHP since last season, if Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon remain out, it could end up being a great spot for Valdez. Lastly, Robbie Ray is the only other pitcher to reach $9K on both sites and he’s within $200 of $10K on DK and FD. It’s a pitcher’s park and there are just three in the projected Texas lineup below a 22 K% vs LHP since last season, but so far, he’s struck out just nine of 56 batters (10.9 SwStr%) with six walks and four home runs (six barrels). Statcast has his velocity down nearly three mph. Just about every fear anyone could have had about Ray regressing back to his former self has been realized through two starts. It’s coming back at him (94.5 mph EV) much harder than he’s sending it in (91.7 mph). We can’t proclaim a disaster after just two starts, but there’s been nothing encouraging other than his 90.3% strand rate, which can’t last.

Charlie Morton not only bounced back and proved that he could be something more than the twice through the order guy the Rays treated him like for most of the last two years, he emphasized it. Morton authored 19 quality starts this year, completing seven innings seven times with a 21.9 K-BB% and above average ground ball rate (47.8%), allowing just 4.9% Barrels/BBE. A 2.93 DRA was his only estimator more than one-quarter of a run removed from a 3.34 ERA. A neutral run environment in Milwaukee is a park upgrade and while the Brewers had just a 92 wRC+ vs RHP, this was a lineup with quite a bit of turnover this year and most of it for the better. However, half the projected lineup (four) exceed a 23 K% vs RHP this season. With a normal workload expectation in a controlled, neutral run environment with a potentially pitcher friendly umpire (Mike Estabrook), Morton may be one of the top values on the board, especially at less than $8K on DraftKings, assuming a near standard workload.

Batters from either side of the plate were below a .285 wOBA and xwOBA against Morton this season with less than a 20 point split, though RHBs were slightly better (.271, .281). Willy Adames is the top batter in the projected lineup by wRC+ (124) or ISO (.221) vs RHP this year. The Astros are fourth on the board with a 3.85 run team total.

If number of innings pitched weren’t a factor, Corbin Burnes would be your runaway Cy Young winner. He finished the season with a 30.4 K-BB%, nearly half his contact on the ground (48.8%), 85.5 mph EV and just 3.1% Barrels/BBE. His 2.43 ERA was within half a run of all non-FIP estimators. His FIP (1.63) was actually much lower. Burnes actually competed seven innings seven times this year and fewer than six eight times in 28 starts. He faces an average offense (100 wRC+ vs RHP) with power (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but five batters in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP this year. This is your highest upside spot on the board. Craig Counsel will pull a pitcher quickly if he needs to, but that shouldn’t be the case here. Corbin Burns is the most expensive pitcher on the board, but may still be the top value.

While LHBs had a .248 wOBA against Burnes this year, batters from either side were below a .220 xwOBA against him. Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) and Austin Riley (146 wRC+, .248 ISO) may be the only bats worth considering here, though everyone in the projected lineup had at least a .165 ISO vs RHP this season.

A nine game slate on Monday night includes two pitchers who reach the $10K price point on both sites, one more above $10K on FanDuel only and then only one more above $9K on both sites. Corbin Burnes has struck out five or fewer in three of his last four starts, but 15 Cubs in the remaining one. His 34.4 K% and 29.4 K-BB% tops the board with a 49.8 GB%, 85.5 mph EV and 2.6% Barrels/BBE a giant cherry on top. A 2.67 SIERA and 2.42 xFIP are his only estimators above a 2.30 ERA. Burnes is the most expensive pitcher on the board and gets a significant park upgrade in San Francisco, but faces an offense with a 118 wRC+ at home and 16 HR/FB vs RHP. Strikeout rates for the projected lineup are marginal with four above a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year, but only one above 25.3%. Burnes is still talented enough and has been dominant enough that he should still probably be considered the top arm on the board, even in this tough matchup.

Zack Wheeler did have seven runs (five earned) charged to his ledger last time out, but several of them were in the ninth inning. He has allowed at least four runs in six of his last nine starts (4.45 ERA), but is still carrying an ERA and estimators below three this season because his workload is so heavy. He’s completed seven innings in five of his last seven starts. For the season, he has a 24 K-BB% and 50.7 GB% resulting in a 2.90 ERA that’s within one-third of a run of all estimators. While Washington is a positive run environment that may get an additional weather boost, the Nationals have just a 93 wRC+ vs RHP, while three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 28 K% vs RHP this year. Wheeler is a solid bet for a quality start here and a strong value for exactly $10K on DraftKings.

Robbie Ray costs $10.9K on FanDuel, but $1.2K less on DraftKings. Not only has he struck out 33 of his last 82 batters, but he’s thrown 14 quality starts over his last 16 attempts and has allowed just one home run on four barrels (4.3%) with an 87.7 mph EV over his last 40 innings. With a 25.3 K-BB% and near league average 8.8% Barrels/BBE, it’s all finally come together for Robbie Ray with a 2.78 ERA that’s below estimators, all above three, but below three and a half. The Orioles have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP this season, but four of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs LHP. With three strong arms like this up top, let ownership projections be your guide tonight. If a tough matchup with the highest price tag turns players off Burnes tonight, he’d make a great leverage play, but it’s hard to go wrong with any of these three.

Julio Urias is the only other pitcher on the board exceeding $9K on both sites. For most the season, he has had excellent control (5.5 BB%), which has occasionally let him pitch deeper into games on a low pitch count. More recently, he’s walked seven of his last 61 batters and hasn’t gone beyond five innings in four straight starts. The 20.8 K-BB% and 86.1 mph EV (5.9% Barrels/BBE) have resulted in estimators no higher than 3.69 xFIP, but he has just four quality starts since the end of May due to the limited workload. In a somewhat neutral run environment, Urias has a somewhat neutral matchup (Braves 97 wRC+), though the Braves have added key RHBs over the last month. Only three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 22 K% vs LHP this season. Urias is a difficult pay up considering workload expectations.

Strikeout totals for Corbin Burns over his last three starts are three, 15 and five. The 89 pitches he threw last time out against the Cardinals were a six start low as well. Burnes easily tops the board with a 35.1 K%, in addition to a 4.6 BB%, 50.5 GB% and 85.2 mph EV (2.7% Barrels/BBE). He’s thrown a quality start in seven of his last nine attempts and has just a single estimators (2.57 SIERA) above two and a half this season. As the only pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites (or even reach it on DraftKings), Burnes is easily the top pitcher on the board in a vacuum. The one thing we need to keep in the back of our minds is that Craig Counsel has been randomly pulling starters early on occasion without advanced notice, in order to preserve them for a post-season run. It hasn’t happened often, but it has happened. He’ll be facing a powerful offense (Reds 109 wRC+, 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but in a neutral park (Reds 97 wRC+, 14.2 HR/FB on the road). Five of eight projected Reds sit between a 22 and 25% strikeout rate vs RHP this season. If your only concern is raw point total, Burnes is probably your man and maybe even one of the better values on the board too.

Jack Flaherty is the only other pitcher to reach $10K on either site, doing so on FanDuel and missing by $400 on DK. While Jack Flaherty has struck out 13 of 42 batters since returning from the IL, he’s done so with just an 8.7 SwStr% and slightly reduced velocity. The Brewers took him deep twice last time out, the only two runs he’s allowed in 12 innings since returning. On the season, all estimators are more than a run above his 2.68 ERA, ranging from a 3.69 FIP to a 4.18 xERA. That said, the Tigers have an 89 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP with only three in the projected lineup below a 22 K%. Detroit is missing key bats and lose the DH tonight in one of the more negative run environments in the league. All of which puts Flaherty in the usable category, though he’s probably efficiently priced.

A few more pitchers exceed $9K on both sites, starting with one of the more interesting arms on the board in Charlie Morton. Over his last 12 starts, Charlie Morton has a 30.6 K%, 2.55 ERA, 2.78 FIP and 3.19 xFIP. He also has 10 quality starts over that span. His overall estimators are very similar to his first season in Tampa Bay. In terms of matchup and environment, problematically, a powerful Yankee lineup receives a park upgrade. Optimistically, they lose the DH and six of eight projected starters exceed a 26 K% vs RHP this year. Consider Morton a slightly risky, high reward option tonight.

Julio Urias hit the IL 10 days ago with a calf issue. He has completed five innings and only five innings in each of his last three starts and has exactly five strikeouts in four of his last five. Efficiency (21.1 K-BB%) and just 5.8% Barrels/BBE (86.1 mph EV) have led Urias to 10 quality starts this season. His 3.29 ERA is slightly below estimators tightly packed between 3.37 (FIP) and 3.64 (xFIP). The projected San Diego lineup includes just one batter above a 22.5 K% vs LHP this year. Lastly, coming off two great starts against the Phillies and Pirates (14 IP – 2R – 17 K), Tyler Mahle surrendered two home runs and five runs overall to the Cubs last time out. He’s had some long ball issues since the sticky stuff ban (12 in 11 starts) with other facets of his game remaining similar, though a small drop in his strikeout rate to 26.2%. He has a post-ban 4.26 ERA, 4.80 FIP and 4.15 xFIP. His cost would seem slightly excessive against a revamped Milwaukee lineup that does feature five projected batters with at least a 24 K% vs RHP, but nobody else above 19.1%.