Primetime Parlay: Broncos vs. Bills Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Denver Broncos versus the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.
With so many offensive juggernauts on bye during Week 10, the Buffalo Bills are our last opportunity for fireworks on Monday Night Football. While the Chargers, Lions, Ravens, and Browns did their part, the Bills offensive potential, coupled with a weak defense in Denver, could be the perfect mix for a ton of points. The Broncos have looked more capable over the last couple of weeks — can they upset the Bills? Let’s build a same-game parlay ticket for tonight’s game on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Playing DFS tonight? Try out SimLabs, now in beta, to work on showdown lineups for tonight’s game.
Broncos vs. Bills Same Game Parlay
The Bills are seven-point home favorites in Buffalo against a Denver Broncos team that has won two consecutive matchups prior to their Week 9 bye.
Russell Wilson and company must have made an impression on the betting community, as the point spread moved a full point and half since opening. Per SAO, while 59% of tickets were bet on the Bills’ spread, 79% of actual dollars were bet on the Denver side of the point spread.
The over-under rests at 47.5 points at the time of this writing. An overwhelming majority of tickets and money are on the under, which seems to be a trend this season. Most of the primetime games, especially those overseas, tend to see most action bet below the totals. Someone way smarter than me should do some research on the impact of playing in primetime, shortened weeks, etc…
The Bills’ defense has continued to struggle with several key pieces lost for the season to brutal injuries. Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White left big holes that the Bills continue to try and plug. Over the last few weeks, the Bills are giving up a far greater volume of yards and points, and more pressure continues to mount for the offense. Tonight, what’s left of the healthy Bills’ roster is poised to go with Stefon Diggs clearing the injury report on Saturday.
The Broncos look to build off of better performances by the offense after a huge victory against the Chiefs. The Broncos were able to get just enough done to beat the Chiefs — mostly off the back of a big performance from Javonte Williams. Williams handled the plurality of opportunities for the Broncos’ backfield and caught a touchdown pass from Russell Wilson.
Here are the relevant offensive statistics on a per attempt/game basis for both teams.
Buffalo Offense
7th — 26.7 PPG
4th — 5.9 YPP
8th — 7.5 Passing YPA
11th — 4.3 Rushing YPA
Denver Offense
17th — 21.5 PPG
13th — 5.4 YPP
19th — 6.9 Passing YPA
2nd — 4.8 Rushing YPA
While the Bills’ offense remains elite, Denver continues to improve on the offensive side of the football. What caught my attention was the efficiency rushing the football. With Williams back healthy, Jaleel McLaughlin represents the lightning to Williams’ everything else. McLaughlin averages 7.1 yards per rush attempt and is an integral part of what appears to be a very efficient rushing offense. The Bills rank 30th in opposing yards per rush attempt.
Denver, for all of their recent improvement, continues to rank at the bottom of the league in most relevant defensive metrics. Denver is ranked 32nd in both rushing and passing yards per attempt — although the rushing number has drastically improved over the last few weeks.
Much has been made of the Bills’ issues in the red zone and turnovers. While Josh Allen corrected many of his turnover issues in recent years, the Bills are averaging 1.6 giveaways per game. The only way for Denver to upset the Bills will be carelessness with the football — a la the loss to the Jets the first week of the season. If Josh Allen and company protect the ball, they should score at will against a very porous Denver defense.
Let’s see what ParlayIQ makes of tonight’s game.
Same Game Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football
- Allen Over 272.5 Passing Yards
- Shakir Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
- Perine Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
Josh Allen Over 272.5 Passing Yards
We open with a humble-narrator-inspired pick with Allen’s passing over. ParlayIQ found 50% of simulations of this game where Allen goes over his passing total. So, we are not starting in the most profitable way. That said, Denver has given up 300 passing yards four times this season. All of those quarterbacks were not Josh Allen.
Instead, we witnessed Sam Howell throw for 300 yards. We even saw Mike White throw for over 50 passing yards in relief of Tua Tagovailoa who rang the Broncos up for 300 yards. The pass defense on a per-attempt basis for the Broncos is the worst in the league. Even with improvement, Josh Allen is more than capable of exceeding 300 yards, tonight.
The Bills do not have the luxury of leaving things up to their defense, either. Instead, the Bills will need to score and then score some more to make up for the deficiencies of the post-injured defense that suits up each week. Look for Allen and company to fly at home.
Khalil Shakir Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Now, if we open with Josh Allen exceeding his passing total, ParlayIQ loves matching him up with a pass-catcher. Dalton Kincaid was another recommendation and would serve as a nice add-on if you want to make this parlay a little extra spicy. That said, ParlayIQ prefers Khalil Shakir thanks to the recent workload he has seen over the past few weeks. Shakir has 4, 6, and 4 targets over his last three games and went over this number twice. With this matchup being that much juicier, a similar workload seems likely to score this prop as a winner.
ParlayIQ finds this prop bet in 69% of simulations that had Josh Allen going over his passing number.
Samaje Perine Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, I tend to like including a leg from the other side. This helps with preventing too much correlation in our parlays, which usually results in a far worse price. While a hit is a hit, the outcome becomes far less likely as we add events and FanDuel will never give us the proper parlay price when items are correlated.
That said, if we are booking our ticket for the Bills to throw the ball all night successfully, the Broncos will need to keep up. With the Broncos’ receiving corps, guessing who is going to collect most of the yardage is tricky. Sean Payton is even quoted as “kind of” saying that Marvin Mims will see more opportunities. The coachspeak doesn’t provide any level of comfort. Instead, I think we go for something with a bit more consistency.
While his volume was cut into by Jaleel McLaughlin and the returning Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine seems to receive 3-4 targets from Russell Wilson each week. Those targets are normally higher percentage passes as dump-offs or quick throws. If the Bills are winning or running up and don’t he field, expect a bit more of Samaje Perine in the backfield as a receiving option or an extra blocker.
Broncos vs. Bills Parlay Odds
- Josh Allen Over 272.5 Passing Yards
- Khalil Shakir Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
- Samaje Perine Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
ParlayIQ projects the following price for tonight’s ticket:
FanDuel Sportsbook offers the following odds:
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
PLACE THIS BET ON![](https://assets.scoresandodds.com/img/fanduel.png)
Parlay Odds: +438
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 2.19 units
Good luck with all of your wagers for this game. Share your parlays with me on X.