Primetime Parlay: Broncos vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-10-12 20:15:37

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same game parlay for the Denver Broncos versus the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.

Thursday night in the NFL features another divisional matchup. Heading to the AFC West, fans will be treated to the Chiefs playing the Denver Broncos in Kansas City. The hapless Broncos seem to be in full rebuild mode after their loss to the Jets. The Kansas City Chiefs look to be changing their image with a strong rushing attack and defense to start the football season. Sports betting sites don’t think much of Denver’s chances this evening. Prior to building a parlay ticket, we will look at statistics, betting odds, and some injuries.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay

At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook anticipates a rout in Kansas City. The Chief are 10.5-point home favorites on a short week after beating the Vikings in Week 5. The Broncos are coming off another tough loss to the Jets after building momentum with the win in Chicago the previous week.

Points are expected in abundance — mostly on the Kansas City side — as the O/U is 47.5 points. Per SAO, 87% of the betting handle fell with the under thus far throughout the betting week. 67% of the money was bet on the Denver points spread despite the Broncos looking like they are ready to pack it in for a big rebuild.

Speaking of the rebuild, the Broncos will not play Frank Clark tonight. Reports suggest Clark will either be released or traded. After trading Randy Gregory, the Broncos seem to be ready to revamp the team under Sean Payton. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton could also be on the trading block for Denver. Javonte Williams was removed from the injury report for tonight’s game while Greg Dulcich was designated to return but will need to be added to the active roster before tonight’s contest.

For the Chiefs, Travis Kelce suffered an injury in Minnesota but returned to perform very well in the road victory. Kelce practiced in a limited fashion on Tuesday and Wednesday and is expected to play tonight. The Chiefs otherwise come into the game with a healthy roster of young receivers. Despite the youth, the Chiefs continue to score points — averaging 25.6 points per game. The big shift this season for Kansas City? The defense.

The Chiefs’ defense is only allowing 16.0 points per game in 2023 with only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. The Kansas City defense continues to improve and the Chiefs seem more built for a playoff run than to set records on offense. The lack of a true number-one receiver has proven detrimental, but the Chiefs seem content to play better defense and run the football.

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Isiah Pacheco — the Rutgers product — continues to impress this season. Pacheco should be expected to perform well against the worst statistical rushing defense in the league. Denver is last in the league — allowing 4.5 yards per rushing attempt on defense. While I would presume we will see plenty of opportunities for the Chiefs’ backs, Patrick Mahomes will be able to move the ball through the air. The Broncos are also last in the league in yards per pass attempt. This defense is really, really bad. Now take away Frank Clark. The defense is even more bad. I am worried that the Broncos will struggle to keep this game even remotely close.

We anticipate a blowout. What does ParlayIQ think? Let’s see what we can glean from the thousands of simulations of this game through the betting tool.

Same Game Parlay Picks for TNF

Pacheco Over 77.5 Rushing Yards
Johnson Under 14.5 Receiving Yards
Mahomes Under 272.5 Passing Yards

Isiah Pacheco Over 77.5 Rushing Yards

For the first time this season, and not because of my poor results, I will defy ParlayIQ. Our simulations seem to think that Isiah Pacheco will stay below his 77.5 rushing-yard prop. I am not in favor of this prop despite its high percentage on ParlayIQ. Instead, I think Pacheco is going to eat tonight.

The Broncos offer no resistance to opposing running backs — ranking dead last in the league in yards per carry. After allowing about five yards per carry to Breece Hall through the first half in Week 5, Denver allowed a 70-plus yard carry to Hall for a long touchdown. Time and time again, we’ve seen players get loose against this defense. The Miami running backs eviscerated this defense.

Isiah Pacheco continues to impress this season as he continues to tear up the turf for the Chiefs. Pacheco runs like he hates the ground he stands on and should be given his normal allotment of carries. If he gets closer to 20, this over feels like a mortal lock.

That said, because ParlayIQ was so high on the under for this total, the likelihood that our ticket price resembles that which is suggested by ParlayIQ is very unlikely. So, for this game, we are going against the grain.

Brandon Johnson Under 14.5 Receiving Yards

The Broncos feature plenty of receivers that haven’t done anything spectacular on an individual basis. If the Broncos are truly considering rebuilding this team, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton need to become attractive options for teams in the hunt. Brandon Johnson, talented or not, is likely to take a back seat.

ParlayIQ doesn’t seem to think Johnson will see many opportunities this evening as this receiving number is very small. We are obviously hoping Johnson doesn’t get much work in dump time. Instead, we might hope this game is closer than the spread indicates to keep the Broncos’ better options in the game.

Patrick Mahomes Under 272.5 Passing Yards

Finally, Patrick Mahomes has made a habit of accumulating stats really quickly in games that get away from the opponent. This game is projected to be exactly that. However, will Mahomes need to throw for 300 yards?

My guess is that he won’t. I don’t think the Broncos pose a test for the Chiefs’ defense. Instead, I think the Chiefs will score and lean on the run game as the clock ticks away. While anything can become a game in the NFL, the Chiefs will not be motivated to put Mahomes at risk if this game is in hand.

If we like Pacheco to go over his rushing prop, it does correlate nicely with Patrick Mahomes passing for less than 273 yards. We will add this prop to close our SGP for the night. Even though ParlayIQ was high on this prop and that of Brandon Johnson, our stand on Isiah Pacheco is likely to give us an unwelcome discrepancy.