Broncos vs. Bills Player Props: Top NFL Picks for Allen and Williams
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday Night Football from Josh Allen and Javonte Williams? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Monday, November 13, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
Week 10 of the NFL regular season will conclude with a Monday Night Football affair between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. The Broncos will be playing with an extreme rest advantage in this contest after having their bye in Week 9. The Bills, 5-4, will be looking to get back in the win column after losing to the Bengals last weekend.
Ahead of kickoff, the Bills are favored by 7.5 points on the spread. The game total is set at over/under 47 points. If choosing to wager instead on the player prop market, we have three prop leans for tonight’s matchup!
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Broncos vs. Bills Player Props for MNF
- Josh Allen u280.5 Passing Yards
- Javonte Williams o13.5 Rushing Attempts
- Josh Allen Less Than 34.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen u280.5 Passing Yards (-115), PointsBet
Our friendly neighborhood meteorologist at RotoGrinder, Kevin Roth, is forecasting sustained winds of 10-15 miles per hour, with gusts approaching 30 miles per hour. Though the wind will not impact every single passing play in this contest, it is only icing on the cake for what is a subtly difficult matchup for Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. This market number is priced as though Denver’s defense is still the same unit that ostensibly had a restraining order against all opposing quarterbacks early this season, but that simply is not the case anymore. Prior to their bye week, Denver increased their defensive pressure rate in three consecutive games, culminating with an NFL-best 55.0% pressure rate in Week 8 against the Chiefs. The Broncos defense is unlikely to sustain elite pressure rates during the second half of the regular season. Still, they have at least proven themselves somewhat competent in this area of the game, which is a far cry from where they were a month ago. Allen has eclipsed this market number in only three of his nine games played in 2023 and in only five of his last 19 regular season games played overall. The under is an appealing look in this spot against a Denver defense that should be well prepared for tonight’s action.
Javonte Williams o13.5 Rushing Attempts (-122), FanDuel
Since Week 5, the Buffalo defense ranks 32nd in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. Their struggles without linebacker Matt Milano and defensive lineman DaQuan Jones have been well-documented. Though some people cannot help but shake the feeling that “eventually the Bills will look like the Bills,” there is little reason to expect Buffalo’s defense to experience much positive regression in the near future. Assuming Denver can keep this contest reasonably competitive on Monday, Javonte Williams, who had 27 carries in Week 8 against Kansas City, should find himself with plenty of opportunities on the ground this evening. This is worth at least a small stab.
NFL DFS Pick’em
Josh Allen Less Than 34.5 Rushing Yards, PrizePicks
Mobile quarterbacks have all had some level of success against the Denver defense this year, but none of them have truly “gone off” in these head-to-head matchups. Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Jordan Love each eclipsed their pregame market number for rushing yards, but none of them ended up with more than 31 rushing yards in their respective game. Josh Allen has been running more of late, with at least seven rush attempts in each of his last three games. It would not be surprising to see head coach Sean McDermott try to reign that in slightly in this matchup, with Buffalo facing a short week to prepare for the physical Jets defense in Week 11.
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