Browns vs. Broncos Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Browns vs. Broncos Odds
| Browns Odds | +6.5 |
| Broncos Odds | -6.5 |
| Over/Under | 41.5 |
| Date | Monday, December 2, 2024 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 13 of the NFL regular season will wrap up with a Monday Night Football matchup featuring the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on ESPN.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Broncos as 6.5-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 41.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, rookie quarterbacks are 23-32-1 SU since the merger on Monday Night Football. Sean Payton is 18-9 SU but only 12-15 ATS in his coaching career on Monday Night Football, including 4-10 ATS across the last decade. The trends aren’t great for Jameis Winston and the Browns either though. Winston is only 1-8 ATS in his last 9 games on extended rest.
Cleveland Browns Preview
What to expect from Winston, Browns offense
There is no snow to eat this week in Denver, but one would assume that the horse (Jameis Winston) is still going to be prepared for battle. Though Winston is one of the most erratic players in the entire NFL, there is little doubt that he has given new life to this Cleveland offense since taking over as the team’s starter in Week 8.
From Week 1 to Week 7, Cleveland’s offense ranked 30th in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate, winning only 1 game during that stretch. From Week 8 to Week 12 with Winston under center, the Browns’ offense has improved to a more respectable 22nd in EPA/play and 19th in success rate. Winston has led the team to a pair of signature wins over likely playoff teams, the 8-5 Ravens and 9-3 Steelers, as well.
There is always a tremendous amount of volatility when trying to predict which version of Winston we will see on the field in any given matchup, but there is little doubt that he at least gives the Browns a chance to be competitive on a weekly basis, regardless of opponent.
Cleveland defense poised for big night
Cleveland’s defense hasn’t been able to replicate last season’s historic numbers this season, but they have still been plenty disruptive at times. Since Week 2, the Browns’ pass rush has generated north of a 40% pass rush in 8 of their 10 games, making them one of the best units in the entire NFL.
EDGE Myles Garrett has been the primary catalyst for those impressive results, totaling 10 sacks and 13 tackles for loss this season, including a 3-sack performance last week against the Steelers.
Since LB Jordan Hicks returned from injury in Week 7, Cleveland’s defense ranks 5th in success rate overall and in the top 8 against both the run and the pass. This group is likely underrated heading into this Monday Night Football matchup against the Broncos.
Denver Broncos Preview
Can Nix handle the pressure?
Bo Nix has elevated himself into Offensive Rookie of the Year conversations thanks to a strong October and November. However, his stock could take a hit if Cleveland’s strong pass rush is able to get consistent pressure on him.
This season, Nix ranks 32nd in completion%, 35th in passer rating, and 38th in yards per attempt when under pressure (out of 41 qualified quarterbacks). Though some Denver fans might be quick to remind people that Nix had a tough strength of schedule during the first month of the season, it’s worth noting that Nix still ranks only 27th in completion%, 16th in passer rating, and 33rd in yards per attempt when under pressure since Week 5.
Despite the numerous injuries Cleveland has dealt with this season, they have still managed to field one of the league’s best pass rushes. This could be a tough spot for Nix.
Moss ruled OUT for Denver defense
CB Riley Moss has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Moss, a 3rd round draft pick out of Iowa in 2023, has performed well in a starter’s role this season for Denver. Entering Week 13, he ranked 31st out of 97 cornerbacks in run defense grade and 54th in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus. He ranks 3rd on Denver’s defense in tackles this season and is tied with star CB Pat Surtain II for the team lead in passes defensed. This is a notable loss for the Broncos secondary unit.
Browns vs. Broncos Prediction
If things go south for the Browns tonight, it’s not unreasonable to think that they get blown out. Sean Payton hasn’t been shy about running up the score on his opponents this season, with 5 of their 7 wins coming by 14+ points. However, it’s worth noting that Denver enters play with consecutive wins over two teams that were decimated by injury in those games – Atlanta in Week 11 and Las Vegas in Week 12. Prior to that, Nix and company scored only 14 points against the Chiefs and lost by 31 points to the Ravens. The Browns certainly aren’t Super Bowl contenders, but they could put up more of a fight than the market is currently expecting.
PICK: Browns +6 (-108, DraftKings)
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