Browns vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on Mayfield, Not Mahomes
Browns vs. Chiefs Odds
| Browns Odds | +5.5 |
| Chiefs Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 54.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 12 |
| Time | 4:25 pm |
| TV | CBS |
Odds accurate as of Sunday at Caesars. Click here to claim a $5,000 Risk-Free Bet!
The Cleveland Browns and the Kansas City Chiefs will begin their 2021 season on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy victory for the home favorites, pricing Kansas City as greater than a touchdown favorite on the spread in the rematch from last year’s AFC Divisional Round.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cleveland Browns +5.5 (-110)
Last year, the Browns made their first postseason appearance since 2002, defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in the opening round before losing 22-17 to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. A big reason they were able to take such a significant leap last fall was due to the genius of Head Coach Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski did an excellent job creating a system in which quarterback Baker Mayfield could thrive. While Mayfield struggled against pressure, he rarely dealt with defenders in his space. As a result, Mayfield had one of the most impressive campaigns of any signal caller in football. He had an above average QBR on throws within 10 yards of scrimmage, on throws between 10 and 19 yards from the line of scrimmage, and on balls thrown over 20 yards down field. The return of “(player-popup #odell-beckham)Odell Beckham Jr certainly won’t hurt those excellent numbers. Beckham is joined on the offensive side of the ball by Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, Austin Hooper, and arguably the best offensive line in the league. Cleveland should be one of the most dangerous offensive teams in football in 2021.
In the off-season, Cleveland made an obvious effort to improve their secondary, drafting Greg Newsome II in the first round, in addition to bringing in John Johnson III and Troy Hill, who combined for 18 pass deflections and four interceptions with the Los Angeles Rams in 2020. The Browns also aggressively traded-up in the draft to secure linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah out of Notre Dame. Bringing in Jadeveon Clowney and Takk McKinley garnered a lot of media attention, but it remains to be seen how impactful they will be on the field.
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (-110)
The Chiefs have the consensus top quarterback in football in Patrick Mahomes. This offensive also features some of the best catchers in the league with names such as Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Kansas City’s biggest vulnerability last fall was a porous offensive line. During the off-season, they traded for Orlando Brown Jr. and made a hefty financial commitment to Joe Thuney in hopes of giving their star quarterback more time to throw the football. An underrated addition is actually a return—getting Laurent Duvernay-Tardif back into the lineup after he took off the 2020 season. Scoring points should not be an issue for this talented group.
If Kansas City experiences any issues this fall, they are likely to be on the defensive side of the ball. In 2020, the Chiefs ranked 21st against the rush and 14th against the pass. They struggled to get much pressure on opposing quarterbacks—ranking only 20th in sacks per pass attempt. This could be an issue against a Cleveland offensive line that protects their quarterback arguably better than anyone else in the league. Other than Chris Jones, the Chiefs lack playmakers. Even Tyrann Mathieu was rather mediocre in 2020 and has not been truly elite since 2015.
Browns vs. Chiefs Pick
In last year’s playoff game, the Chiefs dominated the contest, leading 22-10 at the time when Mahomes exited due to a concussion. However, both teams have completely overhauled their roster since that point. Cleveland has improved at every level of their defense—most notably shoring up their secondary, which was victimized often last fall. Kansas City has significantly improved their offensive line, but questions remain for them defensively. Cleveland might not have enough to win this game outright, but they should be able to stay competitive down to the final whistle. If possible, buy-back a point to get Cleveland at +6.5, which opens up far more opportunities for your wager to cash. If feeling extra confident in the Browns, you can get them at plus-money by selling a couple of points to get them at +3.5 (+115).
PICK: Browns +6.5 (-125)
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