Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds, Prediction & Pick
Browns vs. Ravens Odds
| Browns Odds | +6.5 |
| Ravens Odds | -6.5 |
| Over/Under | 38 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 12 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday afternoon, the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens will meet for an important AFC North divisional matchup at M&T Bank Stadium. Entering play, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens lead the division with a 7-2 record, followed closely behind by Cleveland at 5-3.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Ravens as 6.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 38 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cleveland Browns
Injury-plagued Cleveland offense facing tough test against Baltimore
In Week 10, Cleveland will be without their top three offensive tackles. Starting right tackle Jack Conklin was injured during the opening week of the season and is still out for Sunday’s matchup against Baltimore. Conklin’s backup at right tackle, Dawand Jones, had done a serviceable job in pass protection after taking over the starting responsibilities at the position, but he has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against Baltimore. In his place, James Hudson III is likely to start. Hudson is a significant downgrade at the position from Jones, who was already a downgrade from Conklin. On the other side of the offensive line, the Browns will be without starting left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr., who was placed on injured reserve earlier this week.
Having two undeniable vulnerabilities on the offensive line is far from ideal for Cleveland in any matchup, but especially against a Baltimore pass rush that generated the second-highest defensive pressure rate of any team in the NFL in Week 9. Deshaun Watson has completed only 42.9% of his pass attempts for an average of 4.8 yards per attempt this season when under pressure, according to PFF. His 55.9 passer rating when under pressure ranks 26th out of 37 qualified quarterbacks in 2023.
Can the Browns defense keep this game competitive?
Through eight games this season, Cleveland’s defense leads the NFL in EPA/play and success rate by a wide margin. Last weekend, the Browns pitched a shutout, holding the Cardinals to 48 yards of total offense for the afternoon.
This group will face a much tougher task this weekend against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens – a team that scored 28 points against them earlier this season. Nevertheless, the scoreboard paints an uglier picture than is accurate from the first meeting between these two teams in 2023. Cleveland’s defense still held Baltimore’s offense to under 300 yards of total offense in the loss. The primary issue was the fact that Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw three interceptions, which gave the Ravens multiple short fields.
In Week 10, the Browns are likely to do a better job limiting points by the Ravens, assuming cornerback Greg Newsome is able to take the field.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level
Following a sluggish season opener against the Texans, Lamar Jackson has been excellent as the leader of the Baltimore offense. Overall, the Ravens rank seventh in offensive EPA/play and fourth in offensive success rate through their first nine games of the season.
Jackson has led Baltimore to at least 24 points in each of the team’s last three games, including three consecutive games with at least 30 points. During that stretch, Jackson has combined for five touchdowns through the air and on the ground without throwing an interception.
Even in a tough matchup against an elite Cleveland defense on Sunday, Jackson is likely to perform well.
Baltimore defense wreaking havoc on opponents
Though Cleveland’s defense is getting all of the hype in this intra-division affair, Baltimore’s defense has been nearly as productive during the first half of 2023. Entering play on Sunday, the Ravens rank second in defensive EPA/play and second in defensive success rate this year, trailing only the Browns.
Cornerback Marlon Humphrey is officially listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest after being limited at practice this week, but he is expected to play. The Ravens have elite talent at all three levels of their defense, and they project well again in Week 10 against an injury-plagued Browns offensive attack.
Browns vs. Ravens – Picks & Predictions
According to Brandon Anderson of The Action Network, games with a total of 38 points or below are 9-2-1 to the under this season (82%). On Sunday, the low market total between the Browns and Ravens is certainly warranted. Cleveland and Baltimore enter play ranked first and second in both defensive EPA/play and defensive success rate in 2023 and have minimal injuries on the defensive side of the ball heading into Week 10. Further, Cleveland will be without both of their starting offensive tackles, which is a recipe for disaster against a strong Baltimore pass rush that figures to make life uncomfortable for Deshaun Watson all afternoon. Do not expect a shootout between these two teams on Sunday.
PICK: Under 38 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)