Primetime Parlay: Buccaneers vs. Bills Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:12:39

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football.

Coming off of a loss, the Buffalo Bills look to right the ship at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers look to rebound, as well, after suffering a tough division loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Will Josh Allen and the offense get things rolling against a solid Bucs’ defense? Will Baker Mayfield and company be able to move the ball in Buffalo? Those questions will be answered on Thursday night. Let’s build a same-game parlay on FanDuel Sportsbook to sweat throughout the game.

Buccaneers vs. Bills Same Game Parlay

At the time of this writing, all signs point toward a Bills’ victory. The Bills are 9.5-point home favorites with a 43.5 implied game total. Despite losing key pieces on defense, sports betting sites clearly project tough sledding for the Buccaneers. Opening up at -8.5, the line shifted throughout the week to reach the most current spread as of early Thursday afternoon. Per SAO, better than 70% of betting tickets and handle have been placed on the Bills’ side of the spread.

On the injury front, the Bills will be down two tight ends for Thursday’s game as Dawson Knox and Quintin Morris will not suit up. Knox is staring at an IR stint while Dalton Kincaid is likely staring down the barrel of a larger workload. DT Ed Oliver is questionable for the game. For the Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin will likely play while Chase Edmonds was reactivated from the IR. Edmonds took some of the workload on passing downs early in the season. Rachaad White will lose a few opportunities on third down.

While the Bills rate as the third-highest-scoring offense in the league, Buffalo only averaged 19.7 points per game over the last few weeks. The Bills struggled mightily to move the ball against the Patriots in a shocking loss. Tampa Bay is the sixth-rated scoring defense in the NFL. If Josh Allen and company cannot find their rhythm, the Bills could struggle again.

Speaking of the Buccaneers, while Baker Mayfield is not known for high passing outputs, Mike Evans is putting together a strong campaign. Evans averages 78.0 yards per game on 30 catches. Evans has always been a big play receiver and continues to fill that role for Mayfield and the Bucs.

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The rest of the Tampa Bay offense? Let’s just say that Tom Brady took the efficiency and explosion in the Tampa Bay offense with him when he retired. Baker Mayfield and company only average 4.9 yards per play on offense. The Bills’ defense is not that imposing, though, allowing 5.6 yards per play — a bottom-ten ranking for the Super Bowl hopefuls. Will Baker Mayfield and company be able to move the ball?

Similarly, the Bucs’ defense ranks in the bottom third of the league with respect to yards per play. The rush defense for Tampa Bay is pretty good, but the Bucs continue to allow plenty of yardage through the air. Look for Josh Allen and the Bills to throw the ball at home.

So, what does all of this mean? Do we believe the Bills should be favored by this much? Will this be a one-sided affair? Let’s see what ParlayIQ thinks about tonight’s game through nearly 5,000 simulations.

Same Game Parlay Picks for TNF

Diggs Over 86.5 Receiving Yards
Allen Over 257.5 Passing Yards
Evans Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs Over 86.5 Receiving Yards

ParlayIQ finds Stefon Diggs gaining more than 86 receiving yards in 54% of simulations. Diggs had a middling week in Week 7 and should figure to rebound as the top target in the Bills’ offense. While much of the tight end work could funnel to Dalton Kincaid, some of the short-yardage work could also funnel to Diggs, who will move around the formation throughout the contest.

The Buccaneers funnel offense away from the ground game. Teams are forced to throw the ball — like Atlanta in Week 7 — to find success. The Bills will be happy to oblige if the Buccaneers sell out to stuff the run. I expect plenty of pass attempts for Josh Allen as the Bills need to get back on track. A big play or two to Stefon Diggs, and we will be well on our way in tonight’s game.

If we like the over on Stefon Diggs, maybe we should correlate.

Josh Allen Over 257.5 Passing Yards

And correlate we will! The Bucs’ run funnel will play right into the Bills’ desire to throw the ball downfield. Normally, the Bills do not place a great emphasis on the rushing attack and should be content to throw the ball downfield.

After a rocky game against the Patriots, I would anticipate Josh Allen looking to hoist himself back up in the MVP discussion with a big performance at home. If we build a ticket around Stefon Diggs, ParlayIQ finds 70% of those simulations with Josh Allen exceeding his passing total. This makes so much sense that FanDuel is likely to suppress our betting odds slightly because of the correlation.

We are going to stick with the passing game and look for a third prop to close out our SGP.

Mike Evans Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

I mentioned that Mike Evans averaged 78.0 receiving yards per game in 2023. Let’s hope that continues tonight in Buffalo.

Admittedly, I am always irrationally worried about Mike Evans getting hurt in a game. However, he is healthy to start the contest and should be Mayfield’s primary target. If the Bills get out to a lead, the Bucs will be forced to throw the ball. If Evans and Mayfield can connect on one deep shot, we should be in business.

I think that a script with the Bills passing to get ahead will lead to the Buccaneers reciprocating throughout the second half. If so, let’s hope Mike Evans is the primary target.