Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | -2.5 |
| Cowboys Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 50.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 11 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The first edition of Sunday Night Football in 2022 will feature Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. After retiring, and then unretiring this off-season, the 45-year-old Brady remains one of the most talented quarterbacks in the entire NFL and is surrounded by arguably the most elite combination of skills players of any team in the league. Prescott ranked 7th in passing yards and 4th in passing touchdowns in 2021, but the departure of Amari Cooper this past summer leaves him with one less weapon in the passin game. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two talented teams, pricing the Buccaneers as 2.5 point road favorites game on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At 44 years old, there was little doubt that Tom Brady was the best quarterback in the NFL in 2021, even if he did not win the Most Valuable Player award. Brady led the league in passing yards and touchdown passes, was elite against the blitz, sensational on 3rd down, and had an incredulous 110.3 passer rating in the red zone. His high interception total seems alarming at first glance, but he suffered from some poor luck on deflected balls in the air, evident by the fact that he had a lower turnover-worthy-play percentage than the league average quarterback on every type of throw. If there is any concern for Brady heading into 2022, it is an offensive line that looks much different than a season ago.
The Buccaneers led the league in pass block efficiency in 2021, but All-Pro Guard Ali Marpet retired during the offseason.and Ryan Jensen suffered a season-ending knee injury during training camp. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs was a full participant in practice on Friday, but has only recently recovered from an injury of his own that was suffered during the preseason. Wide receivers Chris Godwin and Russell Gage are each listed as questionable for this contest as well, with Gage dealing with a hamstring injury, and Godwin still recovering from a torn ACL. Tampa Bay’s offense has the potential to be elite again this fall, but there are far more question marks than we have seen in each of the prior two campaigns.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers have numerous standouts, such as star safety Antoine Winfield Jr., lockdown cornerback Carlton Davis, and one of the best linebackers in the league – Lavonte David. However, they also have more than a few concerns, with Sean Murphy-Bunting being tasked to handle slot responsibilities and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka seeing an expanded role in his sophomore season, despite failing to impress in any facet of the game as a rookie. Facing a strong Dallas offense in Week 1, this defense will be tested immediately.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL who is capable of executing throws anywhere on the field with tremendous precision. Nonetheless, Prescott could get off to a slow start in 2022 after losing his favorite 3rd down and red zone target, Amari Cooper, who was traded to the Cleveland Browns during the offseason. CeeDee Lamb returns, but is surrounded by very little pass-catching talent outside of tight end Dalton Schultz. The offensive line is also more vulnerable this fall than it has been in recent seasons, due to the loss of left tackle Tyron Smith, who suffered an avulsion fracture of the knee during practice leading up to Week 1. The loss of Smith also raises red flags for a run game that is relying on the aging Ezekiel Elliott for production on the ground. Since entering the league in 2016, Elliott has amassed 1,650 carries in the regular season, on top of a heavy workload during his college days in Columbus, Ohio. Bettors should temper their expectations for the Cowboys’ offense out of the gate this fall.
In 2021, Dallas finished 15th in sacks per pass attempt, per NFL GSIS. In the offseason, the defensive line lost Randy Gregory, who was second on the roster with six sacks. Any further inefficiencies getting after opposing quarterbacks could be extremely problematic for a Dallas defense that ranked 23rd in rush yards per play last year. The lone unambiguous star on this side of the ball for Dallas is Micah Parsons, who burst onto the scene as a rookie with 13 sacks. He figures to only get better as he enters his sophomore campaign.
The most pressing concern for the Dallas defense is a secondary unit that benefited from some of the best luck in the NFL last year – finishing with a league-leading 26 interceptions. Trevon Diggs led the league with 11 interceptions by himself, but graded as one of the worst players at his position, per Pro Football Focus’ grading system. Diggs has become a household name, but he is far from an elite talent. The rest of this unit remains relatively weak as well, with Anthony Brown offering the most upside of the starting cornerbacks – despite not producing much better than league average results in any of his first six seasons.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Pick & Prediction
Despite both defenses having question marks, bettors should expect a low-scoring primetime battle between these two teams. Though Brady and Prescott are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, missing weapons at the skill positions and a plethora of new faces on each offensive line figure to slow down these passing attacks during the early portion of the year. Expect a few offensive miscues to kill drives, resulting in the under cashing in this spot. We recommend buying a half-point at MGM to create push potential on the key number of 51 for this game.
- PICK: Under 51 (-125, BetMGM)
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