Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | -4 |
| Cowboys Odds | +4 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Sunday, December 22 |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
This evening, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to AT&T Stadium to visit Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Buccaneers as 4-point road favorites on the spread. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Sunday Night Football unders are 40-19 (68%) since the beginning of 2022, including 37-14 during the regular season. In 2024, the under is 11-4 in these primetime matchups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
Evans chasing 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season to begin career
Despite missing 3 games earlier this season due to injury, WR Mike Evans still has a chance to extend his historic streak of 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career. Evans, in his 11th season, needs 251 receiving yards across the team’s final 3 regular season contests to reach the milestone.
Since returning to the field in Week 12, Evans has the 3rd-most receiving yards in the entire NFL, averaging 103.5 receiving yards per game. His 31 first-read targets in that time period are the 4th most in the league, trailing only Malik Nabers, Jakobi Meyers, and Jerry Jeudy.
Though Evans has tried to downplay the significance of his streak in comments to the media, QB Baker Mayfield said earlier this week that he’s “thinking about it (the streak) more than Mike is.” Winning is obviously Tampa Bay’s top priority, but they are clearly trying to get the ball into Evans’ hands as much as possible, and it’s obvious that the key decision-makers in this offense are aware of how far Evans is from getting to the 1,000-yard marker once again.
Winfield ruled OUT
Star S Antoine Winfield has been ruled out after not practicing at all during the week. Winfield has had a down season by his standards, but he still ranks 6th on the team in tackles despite playing in only 9 games so far in 2024. He also has a pair of sacks, 3 passes defensed, and a fumble recovery for a touchdown. He is a notable absence for this secondary unit. The good news for Tampa Bay tonight is that they are facing one of the league’s most inefficient passing attacks.
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Rush, Lamb looking to continue strong connection
Since Cooper Rush took over as the team’s starting quarterback in Week 10, he ranks 28th in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, and 28th in CPOE among 28 quarterbacks with 150+ plays. That being said, his extreme struggles haven’t slowed down the production of CeeDee Lamb much.
Across the team’s last 6 games, Lamb has 60 targets, the 3rd most in the entire NFL during that span. Lamb hasn’t been as efficient with his opportunities as some of his peers, ranking only 12th in receiving yards since Week 10, but he’s still been the primary option in this Dallas passing attack.
Lamb’s 60 targets are 37 more than any other Dallas pass catcher with Rush as the team’s starting quarterback. He has 23 receptions that have led to a first down, which is 16 more than any of his teammates. Expect Lamb to be a focal point in the Cowboys’ offense once again on Sunday Night Football.
Parsons expected to play
Star EDGE Micah Parsons didn’t practice on Friday due to an illness but is expected to suit up. From Week 5 to Week 9, with Parsons unavailable, Dallas’ defense ranked 31st in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. Since he returned to a full workload in Week 11, this unit has improved to 9th in EPA/play and 12th in success rate.
Since Week 11, Parsons leads the entire NFL in total pressures, with a sizable lead over the rest of the league in that category. His presence could have a major impact on this game, given Baker Mayfield’s recent struggles when under duress. In his last 4 games, Mayfield ranks 30th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in completion rate under pressure, 24th in yards per attempt, and 33rd in passer rating.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction
Tampa Bay’s offense has been playing at a high level since their bye week, ranking 4th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate. Yet it’s worth pointing out that they have played the Giants, Panthers, Raiders, and Chargers in that span, and 3 of those teams rank 22nd or worse in defensive DVOA in 2024.
Dallas’ offense has recently found success with their ground attack, which has propelled them to 27 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. However, they could find it tough to continue that success this evening facing a Tampa Bay run defense that ranks 2nd in EPA/play across their last 4 games.
Baker Mayfield has struggled when under pressure this season, which could be the case tonight with EDGE Micah Parsons leading a capable Dallas pass rush. Cooper Rush has been the league’s most inefficient starting quarterback since taking over for Dak Prescott in Week 10. If these defenses can limit the big plays tonight, we could see a relatively low-scoring affair.
PICK: Under 47.5 (-112, DraftKings)
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