Bucs vs. Chiefs Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bucs vs. Chiefs Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | +9 |
| Chiefs Odds | -9 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Date | Monday, November 4 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 9 of the NFL regular season will wrap up with a Monday Night Football affair between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs from Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 9.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 45.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Monday Night Football overs are sitting at 8-3. Through 8 weeks, this is the best season for overs on Monday Night Football since the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
Tampa Bay Bucs Preview
What to expect from shorthanded Tampa Bay offense
Tampa Bay will be without their top-two wideouts for the 2nd consecutive week when they kickoff against Kansas City. Chris Godwin, the team’s top possession receiver, suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 7, leaving the Buccaneers without their most reliable pass catcher in short yardage situations. Mike Evans, the team’s most consistent deep threat and red-zone target, has been ruled out again after not practicing at all this week.
In Tampa Bay’s first game, missing both Godwin and Evans, they faced a negative game script for most of the afternoon against Atlanta, which forced Baker Mayfield to throw the ball 50 times. Tight end Cade Otton led the way with 9 receptions for 81 yards on 10 targets. Running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White also combined for 12 receptions on 13 targets. Jalen McMillan led all wide receivers with 35 receiving yards and served as the offense’s primary deep threat, with a 14.6 aDOT in Week 8.
Though the absence of Godwin and Evans will presumably be felt at some point, Mayfield and company managed 24 first downs and 432 yards of total offense against the Falcons last week, converting 9-of-14 3rd downs. It remains to be seen if they can replicate that performance in a tougher matchup against the Chiefs.
Winfield Jr. listed as QUESTIONABLE
Antoine Winfield Jr. is officially listed as questionable on the team’s final injury report of the week but is expected to play. Winfield Jr. is one of the league’s premier safeties and finished 2023 ranked 1st out of 95 players at his position in PFF grading.
Winfield Jr. missed Weeks 2-5 this fall due to injury, during which Tampa Bay’s defense ranked 22nd in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. Since he returned in Week 6, the Buccaneers’ have improved marginally to 19th in EPA/play and 23rd in success rate, but it’s also worth noting that they have faced the Ravens and Falcons the past two weeks – both teams that rank in the top-5 in DVOA in 2024.
Tampa Bay’s defense should be able to compete well in this spot against a Kansas City offense that is still missing a significant amount of offensive talent due to injury.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Mahomes, elite “game manager”
The term “game manager” often gets thrown around as an insult when discussing quarterbacks, but the 2024 version of Patrick Mahomes is simply further proof that elite “game managers” are an asset, not a liability. Among 32 quarterbacks with 150+ dropbacks this season, Mahomes ranks 32nd with a league-low 6.4 aDOT. Yet, he leads the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL as of this writing.
Playing without their top two running backs and top two receivers, Mahomes and the Chiefs have been forced to play a different brand of football than we have seen in prior years. This offense is a far cry from the one that saw Mahomes average a 9.7 aDOT in 2018, but it’s an offense that can win.
Kansas City’s offense ranks only 16th in yards per play this fall, but they are converting 3rd downs at the 2nd-best rate in the entire NFL and lead the league in success rate. Their ability to consistently move the chains has allowed them to dominate the time of possession, effectively manage field position, and put their defense in a good spot to perform at a high level.
Kansas City defense trending up heading into Monday Night Football
Kansas City’s defense didn’t get off to a great start this fall, allowing 772 yards of total offense and 45 points combined to the Ravens and Bengals in the first 2 weeks of the season. However, they have turned things around in a big way since that point.
Since Week 3, the Chiefs defense ranks 3rd in EPA/play and 6th in success rate. They have held the Falcons, Chargers, Saints, 49ers, and Raiders each to 20 points or fewer in that span. This unit has been particularly good against the run during that stretch, leading the league in EPA/play and success rate against opposing ground attacks.
EDGE Mike Danna will miss his 3rd consecutive game, but the rest of this group is healthy and ready to go as they look to continue their recent run of dominance.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Prediction
Entering tonight’s game, Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes rank 31st and 32nd in aDOT, respectively, out of 32 quarterbacks with 150+ dropbacks this season. The Chiefs are heavily favored, which means the air will likely be taken out of the ball late in the game if they have a lead. Only the Chargers, Bills, and 49ers have played at a slower 2nd-half pace this season. The absence of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans wasn’t felt too acutely last week for the Buccaneers offense, but they face a much tougher test in this spot against a Chiefs’ defense that has been among the best in the NFL since Week 3. It would be surprising to see a shootout between these two teams on Monday Night Football.
PICK: Under 45.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Getty Images