NBA Finals Preview: Bucks vs. Suns Game 1 Odds, Picks, & Prediction

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-07-06 19:33:15

Bucks vs. Suns Game 1 Odds

NBA Picks: Bucks vs. Suns Game 1 Odds Update

• Injury Report: After being listed as doubtful on Monday, the Bucks upgraded Giannis Antetokounmpo to questionable around 2 pm ET Tuesday afternoon. The former MVP was expected to continue to miss time after hyperextending his knee against the Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals, but things might be trending in the right direction for the Greek Freak.

• GM 1 Moneyline: In light of the news, the Suns moneyline price has shortened, which was as steep as -250 not but 12 hours ago (bet $250 to win $100). You can bet on them -222 at William Hill as of 3 pm ET. 71% of the moneyline handle is currently being bet on Phoenix, per Scores and Odds.

• GM 1 Spread: The spread has been fluctuating between Suns -6.5 and -5.5, with stops at -6 since the Game 1 line opened early Saturday morning. If Giannis is available tonight, expect the spread to shorten even more. If he’s officially ruled out, I don’t see this moving beyond -6.5.

• GM 1 Over/Under: The Bucks and Suns are two of the faster-paced teams in the NBA, and bettors have taken notice. The total opened at 217 but has since increased to 219.5, with oddsmakers in agreement across all sportsbooks.

• Game 1 Prop Bets: Things will be interesting if Antetokounmpo plays tonight, and oddsmakers will certainly stay busy adjusting their player props if he does. Here are some Bucks-Suns prop picks made with the assumption that Milwaukee won’t have their superstar on the court in Game 1.

• NBA Finals MVP Betting: Chris Paul and Devin Booker are favorites, but this futures market is particularly interesting for this Finals matchup between the Suns and Bucks. Not only is Antetokoumpo’s status in question but Paul has a history of injuries and bad luck in the playoffs. Don’t miss out on 2021 NBA Finals MVP odds and best bets before the Suns-Bucks tip off tonight.

The wait is over, and the stage has been set for the 2021 NBA Finals. The Phoenix Suns, the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, will host the East’s No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks in Games 1 and 2, and if needed, Games 5 and 7. Game 1 will tip off at 9:05 eastern at Phoenix Arena, where the Suns have won 33 of their 44 games this season. Oddmakers list Phoenix as -6 favorites, with a -250 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

NBA Finals Preview: Bucks vs. Suns

The Suns will be competing for their first NBA title, making just their third total Finals appearance. They last made the championship round in 1993, when Charles Barkley led the franchise to 63 wins, but Michael Jordan had the last laugh. The Bucks are also competing in the Finals for the third time, but they won it all in 1971.

This championship matchup may not have been everybody’s top choice, but it should certainly deliver plenty of entertainment. It features an abundance of star power, featuring two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, perennial All-NBA point guard Chris Paul, and two-time All-Stars Khris Middleton and Devin Booker. Phoenix also has 2018 No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton, who this postseason has looked every bit worthy of that selection. Hell, even Milwaukee’s Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez have played like All-Stars lately, something they haven’t been since 2012-13.

These are also two of the best pace-and-space squads in today’s NBA, and they each have fantastic head coaches in Phoenix’s Monty Williams and Milwaukee’s Mike Budenholzer. These teams are both deep, both led by brilliant floor generals in Paul and Holiday, and both have elite—and downright dominant—scorers in Antetokounmpo and Booker. Both teams also have a plethora of two-way stars, capable of scoring in bunches on one end and shutting down their opponent on the defensive end of the floor.

NBA Finals Predictions: Suns in Seven?

Long story short, this is a great matchup, both for NBA betting purposes and as an everyday basketball fan, that should go six or seven games if all major rotational members play the majority of the best-of-seven. The biggest question mark in the injury department comes from Antetokounmpo, who hyper-extended his knee in the Eastern Conference Finals against Atlanta and hasn’t played since midway through Game 4 of that series on June 26.

Whether or not Greek Freak plays Tuesday evening, I like the Suns to win Game 1 of the NBA Finals at home. And if Giannis does indeed sit, I like the Suns to cover the six-point spread.

As I mentioned earlier, Phoenix has gone 33-11 at home this season. If you count the regular season and playoffs, the Suns also have the best overall record (63-25) as well as the best record against the spread (53-34-1). Their 28-16 home record ATS trails only the Utah Jazz, who finished the regular season as the only squad with more wins than Phoenix.

The Suns seem destined for the elusive NBA title banner this year, after GM James Jones brilliantly assembled a fantastic roster top to bottom and Williams made it all work. Of course, CP3 deserves high praise as well, considering this Suns team was a draft lottery team just two years ago.

With Paul playing the role of effortless floor general, Booker contributing elite-level scoring, and Ayton mastering his role of high screen-and-roller and dominant interior presence, Phoenix has a superb Big Three. It also has a fantastic three-and-D veteran in Jae Crowder, who has plenty of playoff experience. And Cam Johnson and Cameron Payne have contributed plenty in their roles as offensive role players.

Bucks vs. Suns Game 1 Picks

With Giannis out, Phoenix will have too much firepower for Milwaukee to slow down, never mind contend with in a scoring battle. The Suns are on a different level than the Hawks, who managed to extend the ECF to six games. Phoenix, meanwhile, has only lost four games the entire postseason.

The Suns have shot 47.8 percent from the floor during the playoffs, second-best in the NBA. They have also shot 37.3 percent from long distance (8th), and an incredible 86.2 percent from the free throw line (2nd). They have averaged 24.4 assists per game (3rd) and just 11.5 turnovers (5th). The Bucks have led the tournament in rebounds (49.9 per game), they rank third in steals per game (7.8) and sixth in blocks per game (4.5).

Don’t overthink this one, Grinders. The Suns are the better overall team, they have better health as currently constituted, and they are dominant at home. We may have some more difficult calls down the line when Giannis recovers from his knee injury, but for now Phoenix seems like a slam dunk pick. I obviously like them to win outright, but I also like picking them -6 against the spread if Giannis remains on the sideline, which, at this point, is the assumption at sportsbooks based on the Game 1 odds.

• NBA Finals Game 1 Pick: Suns -6

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