Bucks vs. Suns Odds, Game 2 Preview, Picks, & Prediction

by Andy Means (meansy53) Last Updated 2021-07-07 14:44:31

Bucks vs. Suns Game 2 Odds

Bucks vs. Suns Game 2 odds — spreads, moneylines, and totals — are out! NBA analyst Andy Means is here to break things down for bettors. Make sure to get your basketball picks in for the 2021 NBA Finals before Game 2 tips off in Phoenix on Thursday night.

After a relatively smooth 118-105 Suns victory Tuesday night, oddsmakers have made the Suns -5.5 favorites for Game 2. Sportsbooks have increased the over/under ever so slightly from Game 1, opening the Game 2 total at 220.5 or 221 across the industry.

Phoenix Suns Preview

Considering they are coming off of a 13-point win, NBA bettors shouldn’t expect many adjustments from the Phoenix Suns and head coach Monty Williams in Game 2.

From an offensive perspective, the Suns got a huge boon from their ability to get to the free throw line a bunch and, to their credit, knocked almost all of them down (25/26, 96.2%). Those 25 made free throws accounted for 21.2% of their points in Game 1. However, according to NBA Advanced Stats, made free throws accounted for just 13.5% of their points during the regular season.

Throw in the fact that the Bucks allowed the fewest free throw attempts in the league during the regular season, I’m not sure the Suns can count on getting so much of their production at the line going forward in the NBA Finals. So yes, it is certainly promising that the Suns were able to put up 118 points against the Bucks, but I think their halfcourt offense didn’t perform quite as well as some might think.

Obviously, that doesn’t include Chris Paul who, along with Deandre Ayton, was extremely efficient on the offensive end. Devin Booker did finish with 27 points, but it was aided quite a bit by him going 10-for-10 from the line. Booker was just 8-for-21 from the floor, including 1-for-8 from three-point range.

Defensively, I don’t think we see Phoenix change much, either. I mean, they only gave up 105 points to a Bucks team that averaged 120.1 points per game during the regular season. The Suns will likely continue to take their chances with Deandre Ayton guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis made his return to the playoffs a lot sooner than most expected. On Monday the Bucks listed him as doubtful, then upgraded him to questionable Tuesday afternoon. He suited up and was ready to play at tip-off. And despite him looking like his normal self from an athletic perspective, he wasn’t exactly that aggressive offensively.

Suns Injury Report

The last thing to note here regarding the Suns is that they might be without Dario Saric for Game 2 (and much longer than that). Saric left the game just a few minutes into his first rotation after suffering what looked like a non-contact knee injury. Even if he escaped suffering a serious injury (which would be quite fortunate based on how it looked), I’d be shocked if he is able to suit up for Game 2.

While a likely Saric absence may not seem like a big deal on the surface, he is certainly better than the alternative, which is Frank Kaminsky. The Bucks involved Kaminsky in as many actions as possible in the few minutes he was out on the court, and it did not go well for him (or the Suns, obviously). In fact, Monty Williams completely removed him from the rotation in the second half.

If that is Monty’s plan going forward, then Ayton is likely looking at even more minutes in this series. And while that is theoretically a good thing if you are a Suns fan, it could end up limiting Ayton’s effectiveness in the final stretches of these games.

Milwaukee Bucks Preview

I am curious to see what adjustments Milwaukee Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer makes for Game 2 on the defensive end. I’m guessing everyone will be calling for him to ditch the switching scheme that they relied on in the series opener, as all everyone has in their mind from that game is Brook Lopez standing on an island up top trying to guard Devin Booker and Chris Paul in isolation.

And while I certainly wouldn’t fault them for going back to more of a drop coverage (as long as it is not an extremely heavy drop coverage in which Lopez is WAY back) since they have had so much success with it for so long, I think the more important adjustment for Milwaukee is to simply not foul so much. I mentioned up in the Suns preview how little the Bucks put opposing teams on the free throw line, and I think we are having a different discussion today (even if the Suns still won) if Milwaukee kept Phoenix away from the stripe.

Offensively, the Bucks need to get to the line more themselves (only 16 free throw attempts in Game 1) and do a much better job finishing in the paint. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Bucks shot just 13-for-24 (54.2%) within five feet of the rim in Game 1. During the regular season, they averaged 19.3 field goal makes on 29.3 field goal attempts, for 66.1%.

Obviously, getting to (and finishing around) the rim is much harder in the playoffs, especially the deeper you get. Deandre Ayton has quickly turned himself into one of the better big man defenders in the NBA, both out on the perimeter and around the rim. But to the naked eye, it sure seemed like Milwaukee missed a lot of bunnies last night. I expect that to normalize a little bit in Games 2 and 3.

Bucks vs. Suns Game 2 Predictions & Picks

Based on what I have already written, you can probably tell that I don’t think Milwaukee played that bad in Game 1. So for me, I will happily pick Bucks +5.5 against the spread. Giannis looked about as good as one could have hoped based on how nasty that injury initially appeared, and now he gets another 48 hours to recuperate. And whether or not Milwaukee makes any drastic changes to their defensive coverages, I assume they will do a much better job of keeping the Suns off of the line in Game 2.

Where I am really torn though is picking the over/under for Game 2. Game 1 played a hair faster (101.50 pace) than I would have predicted, but games also have a tendency to slow down a little more as a series progresses. That being said, I expect Milwaukee to have a much better offensive showing than they did in Game 1 (just a 104.0 Offensive Rating). But since I am taking the points and betting on the Bucks spread, I might as well ride with their team total too.

NBA Finals Game 2 Picks

• Bucks +5.5
• Bucks Team Total, Over 108.5 points

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