Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Bills vs. Dolphins Odds
| Bills Odds | -4.5 |
| Dolphins Odds | +4.5 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 25 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills will travel to South Beach to take on the new-look Miami Dolphins in an important Week 3 intra-divisional AFC East matchup. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two undefeated teams, pricing Buffalo as 4.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Buffalo Bills
After two weeks, many pundits have already written the Bills into the Super Bowl. However, there are more than a few reasons to believe that their early season success is not sustainable – or at least, that we should hold final judgements until we see this group against better competition. In Week 1, Buffalo had the benefit of playing a Los Angeles Rams team that had not played together during the preseason, was featuring a number of new pieces on the offensive line, and also had the emotional distraction of celebrating last year’s championship on opening night. Still, that game was 10-10 at the half before Buffalo managed to pull-away in the latter portion of the contest. In Week 2, Buffalo ostensibly dominated once again – but a 41-7 final score caused many fans to forget that the Tennessee Titans trailed only 10-7 with 1:01 remaining in the second quarter. Josh Allen has been sensational through two games, but neither the Rams nor the Titans managed to get much pressure on him. Part of that should be attributed to the excellent play-calling of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who is helping Allen to get the ball out of his hands extremely quickly this year. Still, Buffalo ranks 30th in rush EPA/play so far in 2022, which could be a major concern when they face more talented secondary units. The offensive line still has question marks at every position except left tackle. Do not let a quick start to the year and a flurry of positive media attention gloss over those weaknesses.
Defensively, Buffalo could find it even more difficult to sustain their early season success. Safety Micah Hyde, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, defensive tackle Ed Oliver, and cornerback Dane Jackson have already been ruled out for Sunday’s affair against the Dolphins. These absences could cause major issues for a defense that had ranked second in EPA/play to begin the year. Rookies Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam will be thrust into expanded roles at cornerback, with Jaquan Johnson expected to start at safety in place of Hyde. Safety Jordan Poyer is also listed as questionable for Sunday after being limited in practice on Friday. If he is unable to go, it likely means that Damar Hamlin will be forced to start. Hamlin has played only 78 defensive snaps across the last two years, per The Athletic. Buffalo has been a zone-heavy defense in their first two matchups of 2022 – expect them to continue that trend on Sunday, but with much less success if they are forced to rely on two rookies and two back-ups against one of the most dynamic receiving corps in football.
Miami Dolphins
Four days after I degraded Tua Tagovailoa on my weekly podcast, he exploded for 469 passing yards and six passing touchdowns in a Week 2 come-from-behind victory against the Baltimore Ravens. However, a review of the film revealed that Tagovailoa does not deserve all of the credit for his gaudy stat-line. Head Coach Mike McDaniels is scheming-open receivers better than any coach in the NFL right now, which is admittedly an easier task to accomplish with 4.3 speed from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal. McDaniels has been using pre-snap motion and elite speed to create an abundance of easy throws for Tagovailoa, which he has executed at a high-level through the first two weeks of 2022. As of this writing, only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have a higher EPA/play this season than Tagovailoa. Facing an injury-depleted Buffalo secondary in Week 3, bettors could be treated to even more fireworks from this offense.
Defensively, there are fewer compliments to hand out for the Dolphins after two games. Lamar Jackson gashed this group for 318 passing yards and 119 rushing yards by himself in Week 2. Baltimore put 28 points on the board before the half, despite getting stuffed at the goal line and turning the ball over on downs in the first quarter. Heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Bills, cornerback Xavien Howard and defensive tackle Raekwon Davis are both listed as questionable. If either player is absent on gameday, Miami could have an extremely difficult time trying to contain Josh Allen and company.
*Bills vs. Dolphins Picks & Predictions
Sometimes the obvious play is the best play. Through two weeks this fall, the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills are the only two teams in the league with more than two plays of 40-plus yards through the air. Buffalo is far more interested in moving the football down-the-field than trying to win the time of possession battle, evident by the fact that they only barely won the time of possession battle in each of their first two matchups, despite outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 72-17. The Bills’ secondary played extremely well against the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans, but this unit could be missing all four of their starters on Sunday – trusting two rookies and two role players to fill massive roles against one of the most dynamic wide receiver rooms in the NFL. Expect a fast pace in this one and for both teams to put up points – take the over.
PICK: Over 52.5 (-105) via FanDuel