Cardboard Calculus - A Week In Review
Card prices and population counts are not the only things in the hobby growing exponentially by the day. The amount of data being generated is astounding and much of it remains untapped. This is why I have created the Instagram account Cardboard.Calculus. Almost daily I uncover a new piece of information from the vast amount of data in the hobby and this is my platform to share it with the sports card world. In this series I will take a look back at each week’s most interesting posts and provide further explanation for what I think it means for the hobby and our decision making when buying and selling cards.
The modern card market has cooled quite a bit over the last couple of months. Prizm’s standing as the most popular brand and its high sales volumes make it a good proxy for how the market is doing. I for a long time had sung the praises of Select and I thought this would be a perfect time to compare the two to see if my theory on Select being safer was actually true. Lets get to it
Well first let me say this analysis would not have been possible without the amazing tools and data over at SportsCardInvestor.com. I completed this analysis entirely using the data extracts you can get in the Popular Chart tool. You can sign up for your own Market Movers Subscription to access the data on your own and by using the promo code GRINDERS you will get 20% off your first payment on any subscription. You will want to sign up for Market Movers specifically in order to access the great tools and data, and if you sign up for the annual Market Movers subscription, you will save you 20% on the entire year instead of just the first month.
Cardboard Calculus – A Week In Review
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Is Select Taking The Throne?
Using the Market Movers data I looked at average weekly sales price and total sales volume for Luka Doncic’s Base Prizm PSA 10 and Select Base Concourse PSA 10. Luka’s Prizm over this 90 day window has dropped from $1,936 to $1,334 which represents a loss of 31%. Volume remained pretty steady as well outside of a huge increase in volume as the card bottomed out from a huge fall. If you have followed my work at all you know I am one of the world’s biggest fans of the Select product as population counts are much lower leading to less volatility. Now is the time for me to put my money where my mouth is.
As you can see we get a much different picture when looking at Luka’s Base Concourse PSA 10 for the same 90 day period. This card has risen from $845 to $1,030 which is a 21% gain. I believe a big part of this is the lower volume of sales which helps prevent major panic and downturns when the market turns south. I think this also shows that Select has a pretty high floor when it comes to demand as it fell pretty hard from the week of 1/17 to 2/7 only to recover and hit new 90 day highs a few weeks later. We cannot get a conclusive picture from just one player so lets go ahead and take a look at a couple more.
Different Players, Same Story
As you can see we get the same story when looking at Jayson Tatum’s Prizm and Select rookie cards. Tatum’s Base Prizm PSA 10 fell 18% while his Select Concourse PSA 10 rose 9% over this time frame. One other thing that jumps out to me is the low volume and huge price spike in the Select chart for weeks 1/10 through 1/31. This may mean that during this time frame demand for Tatum’s Select card increased while the supply on Ebay was low leading to the price increase. This is just speculation on my part but with so much Prizm product there always seems to be the base cards available when you are looking for them.
To cover as many bases as possible let’s also look at a player who has a relatively low population count for both Prizm and Select. I am a little shocked by this but we can see the same exact story despite Giannis not suffering from modern Prizm print runs. The Greek Freak’s Prizm dropped 18% during this stretch while his Select rose 20%. That is a near 40% swing in returns in favor of the Select. If this is not all about pop counts then what is it?
My Conspiracy Theory
Before I get into conspiracy theories let me give you two more probable reasons why we are seeing this trend. My least favorite explanation, but one that is possible, is that Prizm is a leading indicator and that Select will soon turn into negative territory as well. I do not think that this is the case given how many indicators we have that this hobby is still very hot but want to make sure I remain as unbiased as possible. Another explanation is that many many more Prizm cards are returning from PSA and collectors are immediately listing them on Ebay to generate cash flow. This does jive with the population count argument but eventually new PSA returns will slow down and the pricing dynamic would level out. Select on the other hand has much less new PSA volume and therefore much better price stability.
Ok now let’s get to the fun part! It is my conspiracy theory that the hobby and collectors in general HATE Prizm. I believe the demand for Prizm is almost entirely made up of flippers, speculators, and people who entered the hobby not for a love of sports or cards but just making money. This leads to them hoarding multiples of the same card in hopes to sell them for more later. The problem is most true collectors and hobbyists that I know would rather only buy one of a card and spend any extra cash on another they do not already own. This means that as the investment upside of the Prizm cards die there is a flood of new listings on Ebay which are not met with enough demand to prevent price decreases. Another angle is that most people who want a Prizm card can have that card pretty easily and therefore the true market for the card dries up pretty quickly and the only price movements left are from the speculators I talked about earlier buying and selling in bulk.
I want to be clear that the word HATE was really just added for dramatics. I own some Prizm cards and I do think it will forever be an iconic brand in the hobby. I do however think that it is the currency of choice for day trading which will lead to more volatility. It is very possible and maybe even likely Prizm out performs Select if the modern hobby gets hot again. It is my hope that articles like this will help you understand the hobby better and give you the information you need to pick the best card for the right situation. I hope you enjoyed this and let me know what you think in the comments below!
| Sports Card | Description | Last Sale Price |
 | Luka Doncic Select Scope PSA 10 | Last Sale Price $4500 |
 | Luka Doncic Select Concourse Silver PSA 10 | Last Sale Price $3900 |
 | Luka Doncic Select Premier Silver PSA 10 | Last Sale Price $3300 |
 | Jayson Tatum Select Concourse PSA 10 | Last Sale Price $370 |
 | Ja Morant Select Concourse PSA 10 | Last Sale Price $339.40 |
 | Ja Morant Select Premier Level PSA 10 | Last Sale Price $520 |
 | Giannis Antetokounmpo Select Concourse Rookie PSA 10 | Last Sale Price $1500 |