Panthers vs. Buccaneers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Panthers Odds | +3 |
| Buccaneers Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 1 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday, the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet at Raymond James Stadium in a pivotal Week 17 divisional clash. Entering play, Tampa Bay leads the NFC South by one game over Carolina, but a win for the Panthers on Sunday would catapult them into first place as a result of sweeping the season series. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two teams, pricing the Buccaneers as 3-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Carolina Panthers
Offense
Sam Darnold has performed much better than most bettors realize in recent weeks. In four games since being named the starting signal caller, Darnold has posted a sterling 4-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In combination with a resurgent ground attack, the Panthers are 3-1 in that span, and rank second among all teams in offensive EPA after matchups against the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Detroit Lions. In their Week 16 victory over the Lions, the Panthers ran for 320 yards and three touchdowns on 43 carries (7.4 yards–per-carry).
Defense
Carolina’s defense remains a point of concern with two weeks remaining in the regular season. Recognizing their flaws, particularly in the passing game, the Panthers signed cornerback Josh Norman earlier this week, and he is expected to suit-up this Sunday. Though Norman no longer possesses the elite coverage skills that once made him an elite player in the NFL, he brings veteran experience to a youthful secondary unit that ranks 28th in Dropback EPA across the last four weeks. Outside of safety Xavier Woods, every starting member of Carolina’s coverage group was drafted in 2020 or later. Norman’s presence could be valued more for his presence as a teacher than a player, but it cannot be overstated how much he will be respected this week in the locker room, judging by comments made in the immediate aftermath of his signing.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offense
Having a seven-time Super Bowl winning quarterback has not stopped this group from being an embarrassment in 2022. Through 15 games, Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in offensive EPA. On Sunday, an already ineffectual offensive line could be in even worse shape, with Tristan Wirfs, their top pass-blocker, having aggravated an ankle injury during the team’s Week 16 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Backup left tackle Josh Wells suffered a season-ending injury in the win as well, leaving Brandon Walton as the new replacement. On 43 pass-blocking snaps after Wells left the contest, Walton allowed two quarterback pressures and two quarterback hits. Facing a strong Carolina pass-rush that features Brian Burns, Matt Ioannidis, and Derrick Brown, Walton and the rest of this group are likely to struggle tremendously with protection, which will once again limit the Tampa Bay offense to mostly screen passes and other dump-offs behind the line of scrimmage.
Defense
Logan Ryan’s return to the field in Week 13 has not been the elixir needed to fix a rapidly deteriorating Buccaneers’ secondary unit. In four games since his return, Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA play, having surrendered a 7-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that stretch of action against a list of quarterbacks that includes Andy Dalton, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, and Trace McSorely. If the Buccaneers have any hope of being competitive this weekend, they will need their run defense to play well. However, the potential absence of cornerback Jamel Dean and defensive tackle Vita Vea could complicate matters. Since edge defender Shaquil Barrett last played in Week 9, the Buccaneers rank 10th in defensive Rush EPA. Additional losses on this side of the ball could further hurt what has been the core strength of this defense unit – be sure to monitor the injury report throughout the week.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers – Picks & Predictions
Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers have been much better than most bettors realize. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in even worse shape than has been reported in mainstream media across the last month. The Buccaneers lack of healthy bodies on the offensive line is going to cause significant issues this weekend, which could be enough to result in a Carolina victory. At minimum, this is a game that is likely to go down to the final possession – take the Panthers to cover the spread in this spot. There are strong arguments to be made that the wrong team is favored.
PICK: Panthers +3 (-110, FanDuel)
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