Cavaliers vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, and Preview - December 1st
Cavaliers vs. Heat Odds
| Cavaliers Odds | +3 (Open +6) |
| Heat Odds | -3 (Open -6) |
| Over/Under | 206 |
| Date | Wednesday, Dec. 1 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | BSOH |
Wednesday night, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Miami Heat will battle at FTX Arena. Cleveland has been one of the more surprising teams in the NBA to begin the new campaign, sitting above the .500 mark through the first quarter of the season. The addition of Kyle Lowry to Miami has been highly successful thus far, as the Heat enter play with the third best record in the Eastern Conference. Oddsmakers are expecting Miami to emerge victorious this evening, pricing them as six-point home favorites on the spread at online sportsbooks early Wednesday.
Let’s take a closer look at Cavs vs. Heat odds and picks.
Cavs
Arguably the biggest reason for Cleveland’s early season success is the play of their top draft selection from this past summer, Evan Mobley. The Cavaliers are 11-6 in games that Mobley has seen the floor this year, including 8-2 in his last 10 games. The last time that Cleveland lost a game by more than six points with Mobley in the lineup was on October 30, an 11-point loss in a road game against the formidable Phoenix Suns. Mobley has been sensational, averaging 14.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per night. His presence is especially notable on the defensive end of the floor, where Cleveland ranks in the 90th percentile with Mobley on the court.
Another component of Cleveland’s surprising success this season is attributable to their depth. The Cavaliers have seven active players averaging double-figures in scoring, and nine players averaging at least 20.3 minutes per contest. Even without Collin Sexton in the lineup, this is a team with an abundance of scoring options—which makes it difficult for a defense to key-in on stopping one or two primary scorers. Cleveland is a team that can stay competitive with any opponent in the NBA.
Heading into tonight’s action, the only new injury news to report involves Cedi Osman, who will be sidelined this evening with low back soreness. Osman is averaging 11.6 points in 22.2 minutes per game this season.
Heat
When Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler are on the floor together this year, the Heat rank in the 95th percentile in defensive efficiency, permitting only 99.4 points per 100 possessions. If there is any downside to this big-three, it is that they rank in only the 22nd percentile in offensive efficiency when sharing the court.
Still, mediocre offense is not a prohibitive factor to winning basketball games with the new officiating rules in the NBA. On the year, Miami owns the fourth best Net Rating in baseketball, outscoring their opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions. When playing at home, the Heat have been even better, outscoring their opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions.
Miami relies disproportionately on Butler, Adebayo, and Tyler Herro to put the ball in the basket. On the season, these three players are accounting for 58.9 percent of the Heat’s scoring output on a nightly basis. Having listed both Butler and Adebayo on the injury report ahead of this evening’s affair, bettors might be interested in confirming their status prior to placing a wager backing Miami.
Picks and Prediction
In Cleveland’s last six games with Mobley on the court, their game totals have hit 210, 197, 190, 180, 176, and 191. His presence should once again help the Cavaliers deliver a strong performance on the defensive end of the floor in this one. As mentioned above, Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA when they have Butler, Adebayo, and Lowry on the floor together. Bettors should consider a play on the under in this one.
If looking to play a side in this game, Cleveland has value at the current price, but could gain value on the moneyline if Butler or Adebayo end up on the sidelines. Be sure to monitor the injury reports prior to tip-off.
PICK: Under 206 (-110), Cavaliers +6 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn