CBB Daily Plays: NIT Tuesday
While most people are going to be waiting until Thursday to get in their college hoops action, I figured I would go ahead and get something up for us junkies who will end up watching a lot of the NIT games. The NIT used to be a major joke, but with the emergence of the CBI and the CIT, it has somewhat gained steam as a more interesting tournament to follow.
This should be a fairly solid NIT this year, and because a lot of the conference champions were eliminated, we have some higher scoring teams. FanDuel has a solid slate of nine games and DraftKings has 11 with the two tournament games tonight.
No grind down or incentives style, but some solid plays coming at you. I will focus on the teams we have not used all season as well.
Stud Guards
Cameron Payne ($9,500 FD, $9,600 DK) – Finally we get to use Cam Payne in fantasy! Payne has been an absolute beast this year and you can clearly tell by his game logs he is great value, but let’s look at his tempo free stats. He takes 33% of Murray’s shots while on the floor with a 38% assist rate, which is close to the Kris Dunn level, while taking 20+ shots in every game. He does not rebound as well but is ranked in steals and is a fantastic play whenever you can use him. Usually I would be somewhat worried about using a high priced guard like this from a lower conference team against a bigger conference, especially with how good Julian Washburn is on defense, but Murray State is a better team than UTEP and is projected to win this game while scoring a decent amount of points. Get him and in watch him give UTEP a lot of Payne (okay, that was really bad).
Terry Tarpey ($7,200 FD, $6,800 DK) – This price seems like an egregious error by FanDuel on Tarpey, however I am not enamored with the matchup. Tulsa has a great defense and plays in a much better conference than William and Mary, so there is an extreme dropoff expected with production. That being said, Tarpey has averaged 31 fantasy points per contest on the season in FanDuel points and is priced to where he only needs 29 for value. Tarpey only takes 20% of his team’s shots, but he is one of the best at getting to the free throw line and making his free throws in addition to a 27% defensive rebounding rate and 20% assist rate. He really makes his value on FanDuel with blocks and steals, as he is 65th nationally in steals and 259th nationally in blocks per game. He is a true stat sheet stuffer, and while he is facing a much more athletic team in Tulsa, the price might be too good to pass up. On DraftKings it becomes a little bit more dicey. He does not have the scoring punch to appropriately make up for the blocks and steals and is only $300 cheaper. I love him on FD, but be very careful on DK.
E.C. Matthews ($6,700 FD, $7,600 DK) – The price on FD is a ridiculous steal for Matthews here, as he takes 30% of the Rams’ shots while rebounding and assisting at a decent rate. The steals and blocks are not there but he only needs 26 or so to make value. He has been consistent with hitting that lately, and Rhode Island has a tempo-up game and a game they are expected to win against Iona, who does not defend the perimeter well at all. This is a fantastic spot for Matthews to score a boatload of points, and while you usually get a mid-major player in these situations playing a giant, Matthews is getting a team who would likely finish middle of the pack in the A-10.
Other Stud Guards to Target: Chris Fowler (CMU, $8,600 FD, $8,500 DK), Corey Hawkins (UC-Davis, $8,900 FD, $8,500 DK), Kyle Collinsworth ($10,500 DK – doesn’t really matter the price. Collinsworth is in a great matchup and a triple double threat every time he takes the court)
Value Guards
Kelvin Amayo ($5,100 FD, $6,300 DK) – Amayo kind of goes as the forgotten man on this Iona team, but he plays a big role and is actually one of the best rebounders and assist men on the team. He is never going to wow you with a massive stat line, but plays big minutes and has the ability to make plays. This matchup against Rhode Island scares me a little bit, as they are a very good defensive team (9th in the nation), which scares me away from Laury and English, because English hates being pressured at the three point line and takes some awful looks out there when forced to. I like the price on Amayo and I like his ability to hit 20 points even in lower pace, tough game. Amayo’s ability to do all of the big 3 categories on DraftKings makes him a very solid play, and despite the matchup, I still like his $6,300 tag.
Jared Terrell ($4,500 FD, $4,300 DK) – Terrell is min-priced here on FanDuel and very cheap on DraftKings. and has been playing big minutes lately at shooting guard for the Rams. He has a great steal rate and a 24% shot percentage when he is on the court. He can score, and as I noted above with Matthews, it is hard to get a better matchup for the perimeter guys than the one we are getting today against Iona. Terrell will not do much more than shoot and steal on the perimeter, but he has been solid at hitting value at a min-priced price point in the last few games and gives you the ability to stack your roster with Payne and Breunig.
Kenneth (Speedy) Smith ($4,500 FD, $5,900 DK) – Speedy has been playing extremely well lately with multiple steals in the last few games, and at $4,500 seems to be a total lock to hit value today. There are a ton of solid guards, and with how many three-pointers Central Michigan shoots, I would expect Smith to get a few rebounds in this game as well. Louisiana Tech has one of the higher over unders and are a very good team, led by Smith. It is hard to get a guy averaging 35 minutes in every game with a 38% assist rate as the point guard and leader of a team for $4,500, so I would jump on this opportunity. He only has an 11% shot percentage, but I would not worry about that. He is a much riskier play on DraftKings because of the inflated salary, and I may look elsewhere there, however I felt like I needed to profile him on FD as I think he is as close to a must play as you will get there.
Other Cheap Guards to Target: T.J. Sapp (Murray St. $6,100 FD, $6,300 DK), Mario Dunn ($5,800 FD, $5,100 DK)
Stud Forwards
Martin Breunig ($7,600 FD, $7,700 DK) – Breunig is a boss. If you have not had a chance to see him play, tune into this Montana/Texas A&M game tonight and watch for a little bit. He is one of the best big men in the country and the big German should guide Montana to an NCAA tournament berth next year, assuming that Eastern Washington does not win again. He has almost a 30% shot percentage, a 20% defensive rebound percentage, and an 11% offensive rebound percentage with a 16% assist rate, and he is nationally ranked in blocks too. His weakness is fouls, as he commits 4.7 fouls per 40, but when he is on the court, he produces. The matchup against Texas A&M leaves a lot to be desired, however Breunig should have no problem hitting value at that price.
Hassan Martin ($6,400 FD, $4,900 DK) – I am not sure I would consider Martin a stud forward, but he falls into that category on FanDuel, as not a lot of the top guys for me are top-tier options today. Martin plays 30 MPG for Rhode Island at the five, and should be involved in a lot of the play against Laury today. He has a massive block rate, which allows him to get to 30 fantasy points easily in FanDuel, and his price on DraftKings reflects the fact that they do not have blocks. He is not involved in the offense a lot, but this is an uptempo matchup against an Iona team who does not like to play a lot of defense, so feel free to ride with Martin. I also somewhat like Biruta, but his minutes are just too inconsistent for me.
Vince Hunter ($8,700 FD, $8,500 FD) – I have been touting Hunter all year, and after a small blip two weeks ago, Hunter has gotten back to the 40 PPG type Hunter he has the ability to be. He is an absolute stud when on the court and can score from anywhere, even against top defenses. Murray State and Jarvis Williams have not faced a stud like Hunter throughout the OVC conference season and will struggle to contain his strength in the post. I love Hunter today, and if you can afford him, I think he is going to have a monster game, that is if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Other Stud Forwards to Target: Julian Washburn (UTEP, $6,100 FD, $6,200 DK), John Simons (CMU $6,800 FD, $6,400 DK)
Value Forwards
Rosco Allen ($4,500 FD, $5,200 DK) – I do not love his price on DraftKings, and would probably stray away from him there, but for min price on FanDuel he makes a great play. He is going to get 30+ minutes and I would not worry about the single digit performance against Utah, as we can essentially throw that out. I did not want to profile any of the major conference guys, but Allen’s price is just a mistake and there should be room for him in your lineup to be able to use a lot of the other studs that we talked about.
Jonathan Fairell ($5,300 FD, $4,400 DK) – Fairell is a riskier pick, as he has the tendency to disappear from games, but he still makes a really solid play. When he’s playing well and not fouling, he is getting minutes on the court and picking up points and rebounds. UTEP is a solid interior team and Murray is going to need their 6’7 senior, with one of the best offensive rebound rates and a 20% defensive rebounding rate, on the floor to make some momentum changing plays. There is not anything definite in the forward spots today except for maybe Breunig, so finding the right ones will be key.
Jimmie Taylor ($5,500 FD, $5,300) DK) – There really is a total lack of forwards on this slate. I wish that we could use all guards because that would make it much easier, especially on FanDuel. Anyway, Taylor has been great lately for Alabama and should be able to have a solid game against Egwu of Illinois. This is going to be a low scoring game and not one that we want to target, but when Taylor’s price is at $5,500, a price he has made value at in four straight, we have to consider him. He has improved so much lately and has block upside on FanDuel.
Others Value Forwards to Target: Erik McCree (La Tech, $5,400 FD, $5,400 DK), Cedrick Lang ($6,000 FD, $5,900 DK)
I also should note that for the BYU/Ole Miss game on DraftKings, basically any of the major usage guys like Summers, Moody, Collinsworth, Haws and Fischer are going to be solid plays. That game is going to have a huge over/under and should be an incredible game to watch tonight with a very high score. I am expecting Andujar to have a monster game for Manhattan as well in a blowout win, and he should go nuts against Hampton.