CBB Daily Plays: NIT Wednesday

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We have one more day to build the bankroll and make some money before the tournament rolls around and brings the huge prize pools that it is going to offer. The two dollar tournaments are incredibly large, and multi-entering those could be extremely fun. It should be noted that both sites have included the play-in games, which are played with a 30 second shot clock and not a 35 second one. This should only affect teams with extremely slow tempos and will not play a huge role, but likely I will be avoiding most of the playoff games unless there is a big pricing error.

Stud Guards

Trey Freeman (Old Dominion, $8,200 FanDuel, $8,800 DraftKings) – Freeman does it all for the Monarchs with a 32% shot percentage and a 26.5 assist rate. He is underpriced here at $8,200 on FanDuel because he has 50-point upside in the right situation and is one of my favorite guards today against an overmatched Charleston Southern team. There are not as many big upside games with huge scores tonight, but there are certainly situations like this to exploit.

Will Cummings (Temple, $8,200 FD, $8,000 DK) – I did not want to profile a player we have been using all year, but Cummings’ matchup is so great because he is playing a team in Bucknell who Temple should destroy if their mind is in the right spot. Chris Hass (Ryan Hass on FanDuel? Kind of confused about that) cannot guard Cummings, who has been great playing in the AAC this season. If Cummings’ mind is right and not on their NCAA tournament snub, he will go off and prove to the nation that he should have been in the tournament.

Kiefer Sykes (Green Bay, $8,800 FD, $9,200 DK) – Basically the most expensive guard on the board, Sykes has one of the biggest upsides. I like Freeman better because of price and matchup, but Sykes has nearly the same tempo-free stats and has a great upside. The matchup against Illinois State is going to be difficult, and I would look to the matchups with Valpo to get a barometer on how Sykes will perform, but he is still the leader of the team and does everything for them.

Value Guards

Daniel Bejarano (Colorado State, $6,900 FD, $7,400 DK) – I guess he is not really a value guard, but the $6,900 price point on FanDuel makes him a great value either way. Avila is probable against South Dakota State, but who knows how effective the ankle will be and a lot of the scoring will revolve around Bejarano creating the offense. Colorado State is one of the highest scoring teams on the slate and Bejarano has a 25% shot rate, a 20% rebounding rate and a 20% assist rate to boot.

John Gillon (Colorado State, $3,000 FD, $4,900 DK) – I am not sure I would take him up on his DK salary, but the FanDuel salary is definitely something to behold. With new teams, it always seems that there is some sort of algorithm issue, and the Sixth Man of the Year in the MWC is currently priced at $3,000, under minimum. Gillon gets 25+ minutes per game, shoots 40% from three and is an awesome price here for $3,000 as he only needs 12 points to hit value on FanDuel.

George Marshall (South Dakota State, $4,500 FD, $5,700 DK) – Marshall is the starting PG for SDSU, and even in a tough matchup against Colorado State, should produce considering it is an uptempo game for SDSU. I like the price on DK, although I am not crazy about it, but Marshall is min-priced on FD and gives you an incredible chance at stacking your roster with studs tonight. He plays almost the entire game, shoots around 10 shots per game and will hit you around 25 points tonight.

Stud Forwards

Jalen Cannon (St. Francis-NY, $8,600 FD, $8,700 DK) – I am worried this could be like a Bruenig situation where the other team essentially dominates the game and does not allow Cannon to do his work. That being said, Cannon is a beast in the paint and is nearly a lock for double digit rebounds. He should be able to take the interior of Richmond in this game and post a very nice stat line despite it being a lower scoring game. This is a game where the 30 second shot clock may give us a few extra possessions.

JJ Avila (Colorado State, $9,000 FD, $8,800 DK) – This pick is based on Avila’s health. If he is healthy, he becomes the best forward play on the board with his all round ability and role as the go-to scorer on the team. If he is not healthy, we will then have to revert back to Bejarano as the close to $9,000 price is not great. Ankle injuries are fickle matters and I do not think we will really know until he takes the court to play. Risky play, but with the lack of good forward options on this slate, he is an interesting gamble.

Terry Allen (Richmond, $7,600 FD, $6,600 DK) – An unassuming name here should keep his ownership low but I love his potential today. This Richmond/St. Francis game is projected at 61 possessions and a prime candidate for the 30 second shot clock to have an effect. The problem is, I did not really see it having too much of an effect in the previous games yesterday. That being said, his price is just too low for the main rebounder on the Spiders, and after playing a gauntlet of teams down the stretch, the Spiders should be able to dispatch St. Francis fairly easily.

Value Forwards

Reggie Lynch (Illinois State, $6,200 FD, $4,800 DK) – I am a fan of Lynch here, who has been playing great down the stretch for Illinois State, and now gets a better matchup than Wichita or Northern Iowa in Green Bay. The Phoenix are a solid team but most of their strength is in their guard play. Mays and Fouse are solid, but Lynch is at the top of his game rebounding and blocking shots. The value is here on a slate with not a lot of forward value.

Nick Duncan (Boise State, $5,900 FD, $5,100 DK) – I like his price on DK a lot more than I do on FD, because his game is all about draining 3’s. He plays almost the entire game and takes nearly 10 shots a game, but a few of the DK game log scores are wrong and have not added in his point totals making him underpriced here. He gets the bonus for 3’s and is a big part of this offense. I like him as a GPP play.

Alonzo Nelson-Odoba (Richmond, $5,300 FD, $3,300 DK) – Odoba’s value somewhat ties into Terry Allen’s as if Odoba gets big minutes here, Allen’s value is likely to decrease. Odoba has missed a good chunk of time with a concussion this year dropping his price to levels where it is under his season average of points, but he came back and played 11 minutes in the game against VCU. I am having issues finding anything about his status for this game, but he is a 25 PPG type of guy and I love his price on DK coupled with his block upside on FD. If we can get an all clear on him that he is back in the starting lineup, this should be a great play.

About the Author

Varncass
Jon Schiller (Varncass)

Jon Schiller (aka Varncass) has been providing college sports content for the fantasy industry since 2012 and the sports betting industry since 2022. He’s an analytics junkie who uses any and all predictive stats and game theory to discover edges for the RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds community. Follow Jon on Twitter – @Bronzesword