Celtics vs. Mavericks: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Celtics vs. Mavericks Odds
| Celtics Odds | -3 |
| Mavericks Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 233 |
| Date | Thu, Jan. 5 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | TNT |
On Thursday evening, the Boston Celtics will travel to the American Airlines Center to play the Dallas Mavericks. Entering play, Boston has suffered back-to-back double-digit losses, including a 33-point defeat to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday. Dallas has won seven consecutive contests, including notable wins against the Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks in that span. Nonetheless, oddsmakers have the Celtics priced as 3-point road favorites on the spread tonight, expecting a bounce-back performance from one of the premier teams in the Eastern Conference.
Boston Celtics
Return of Robert Williams
Though Robert Williams is yet to graduate from a minutes restriction in his return from injury, his impact on the Celtics has been undeniable. In Boston’s last four games with Williams on the floor, the team is 3-1, including notable wins against the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers. The Celtics are a capable team even without Williams, but their offense improves to the 97th percentile when the talented big-man is on the floor this year. Last year, Boston ranked in the 61st percentile in offensive efficiency when he was on the sidelines compared to the 70th percentile when he was on the floor.
Strong away from home
Though Boston’s reputation is suffering due to a case of recency bias after back-to-back sizable losses, the Celtics remain one of the better teams in the NBA, particularly on the road. In 18 games away from TD Garden, Boston is 11-7 and owns the 4th-best Net Rating of any team in the league on the road. Jayson Tatum, the team’s leading scorer is averaging 28.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on the road this year.
Dallas Mavericks
Dominant Doncic
In December, Luka Doncic averaged 35.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game as he continued to build his case for the league’s MVP award. In his first action of 2023, Doncic delivered 39 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists in a win over the Houston Rockets. Entering play, the Mavericks’ young star leads the league in scoring and is fourth in assists – proving that he belongs in all conversations when talking about the best basketball players in the world.
Tough in Texas
In 20 home games during the first half of the campaign, Dallas is 15-5 straight up and owns the 8th-best Net Rating of any team in the league, outscoring their opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions. As good as Doncic has been overall, he has been at his best when playing in front of the home fans – averaging 35.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists.
Wood in line for a big game
Per CourtIQ, when both Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith are off of the floor at the same time this year, Christian Wood is averaging 25.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per 36 minutes of action. In his last five games, Wood has scored 30, 19, 21, 25, and 21 points, respectively. Facing a Boston defense that has struggled of late, he is likely to have another strong performance on Thursday.
Celtics vs. Mavericks – Picks & Predictions
On the season, the Boston Celtics are averaging 100.4 possessions per game on the road and the Dallas Mavericks are averaging 96.1 possessions at home. Realistically, bettors should expect no more than 100 possessions in regulation between these two teams on Thursday, which makes it difficult to envision this game being as high-scoring as the market is anticipating. Both teams are averaging 117.0 points or less per 100 possessions on the offensive end of the floor and holding opponents to fewer than 114.0 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end. Though there will be no shortage of offensive stars in action in this contest, the under is the smart lean.
PICK: Under 233 (-110, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Imagn