CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 1
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with everyone increasing their coverage and attention to the sport. My goal is to provide you a weekly advantage on underrated plays and roster flexibility.
These are my top picks, with a focus on DraftKings this week:
Matt Linehan – (QB) Idaho – DraftKings Price: $4,400
Linehan is the best QB value this week. He doesn’t have the name power, nor is he going to lead your team in scoring, even at his position. But, considering how cheap he is, the relatively high O/U (58), and the line only being -7 for Ohio, you don’t have to be a genius to figure out Vegas believes Idaho is going to score somewhere around 25 points. Linehan welcomes back a nice receiving weapon in Dezmon Epps ($3,900) for the 2015 season. Epps sat out 2014, but led the Vandals in receiving yards (980) in 2013. He’s a nice value as well. While there’s a chance Ohio could run away with this one, Linehan is game-flow agnostic, and may even benefit in a comeback situation.
Last year when these two teams squared off, Linehan scored 21.1 DK points. If he can manage to replicate that performance, you’re looking at a potentially huge advantage.
The real crux to using Linehan is how much it opens up everything else up.. With only $4,400 taken up by your first QB spot, this leaves you with the ability to comfortably fit one of the top plays like Brandon Doughty ($9,000) or Marquise Williams ($9,700) in at the second QB spot. With this being a nine-game Thursday slate, being able to fit guys like Pharoh Cooper ($8,100) or Nick Wilson ($9,000) into lineups becomes even more valuable.
Jaquez Johnson – (QB) Florida Atlantic – DraftKings Price: $6,200
Linehan was a play purely based on price, but Jaquez Johnson has both value in price and a high ceiling.
Johnson had four games of 32 or more DK points last year. He also averaged 22.9 per game. Already an appealing play, we haven’t accounted for his opponent yet. Tulsa was 115th in total yards allowed (487 per game) and 122nd (39.3) in points per game allowed in 2014. While they may have improved, it’s still a positive to see them on the schedule.
With the O/U set at 66.5, and a high paced Tulsa offense chomping at the bit, this game could get out of hand and become a shootout. It wouldn’t shock me if one, or both teams end up in the high 30s.
Another comforting thing about Johnson is that he had 9 or more carries in all but two games last year. That’s a big part of fantasy scoring for him, and the added rushing production gives you a heightened floor compared to a pocket QB.
AJ Ouellette – (RB) Ohio – DraftKings Price: $6,400
Plenty of factors are pointing towards success for AJ Ouellette this week. Not only is the Ohio quarterback position yet to fully be decided, but he’s facing an Idaho defense who was 116th last year in rushing yards allowed (245.9 per game).
Ouellette finished 2014 with 20 or more DK points in six of his final seven appearances. He is set to take a bellcow role in this offense, hopefully keeping pace with how he ended last season. With Ohio favored by seven points in this game, there’s also the realistic possibility that they’re trying to run out the clock in the fourth quarter, which would bring even more volume to Ouellette.
At his price, you’re not going to find a better deal at RB on this Thursday slate.
Jalen Hurd – (RB) Tennessee – DraftKings Price: $6,900
Hurd is primed and ready to face off in a matchup against Bowling Green, where the O/U is set at 69, one of the highest of the entire week. Bowling Green was 105th in rush yards allowed (207 per game) in 2014 and were 109th in points per game allowed (33.9).
Last year Hurd finished strong, accumulating 14 DK points or more in five of his last six games. He’s priced as the eighth RB in the slate, also, so you don’t have to rely on him for workhorse upside, but the potential is still there.
I’m also looking at Hurd as a nice hedge off of Joshua Dobbs, the third most expensive QB in the slate. While Dobbs obviously has the potential to steal some very important rushing production, I feel much more comfortable going to battle with Hurd, and bulking up in other spots.
Mack Hollins – (WR) North Carolina – DraftKings Price: $3,900
Hollins is purely a tournament play. The 6’4”, 210 pound receiver was named North Carolina’s breakthrough athlete of the year in 2014. He went from walk on his freshman year to starter last season. When the ball was in his hands, he was incredibly efficient, gaining 17.5 yards per reception, and scoring on 23 percent of his 35 receptions.
While he was hit or miss on a per game basis, I’m expecting him to grow into a borderline feature role in the high powered North Carolina offense in 2015. If he can increase in volume and stay efficient per catch, he may evolve into a more stabilized cash play as the season progresses.
He’s priced as the 22nd receiver on the Thursday slate, and will almost assuredly be extremely low owned. He is a great, cheap stacking option with Marquise Williams, averaging out the expensive QB cost.
Jordan Westerkamp – (WR) Nebraska – DraftKings Price: $3,900
Westerkamp was already someone to target with the departure of Kenny Bell and Ameer Abdullah, but now with the Demornay Pierson-El injury, you’re looking at a potential feature role. What Westerkamp lacks in speed, he makes up for with ball skills and strength after the catch. On just 44 receptions last year, he put up 747 receiving yards (17 yards per reception) and five touchdowns, as the third banana. Now he’s the only receiving option in the offense with actual experience.
This is as close as it gets to a must play in both cash and tournaments, It wouldn’t shock me to see him go over 20 DK points (100 yards and a TD). Vegas is predicting that Nebraska will score over 30 points on Saturday, and if that’s going to happen, there’s going to be passing yards to go around. Much like any cheap play, not only does he provide stand-alone value, but he opens things up for everything else. I especially like stacking him with Tommy Armstrong (also a cheap-ish play at $7,000).
Westerkamp was priced as the 45th receiver this week; I’ll go out on a (very short) limb and guarantee he out-produces that.