CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 10
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with increased coverage of the sport from multiple platforms. My goal is to give you a weekly advantage on underrated players and roster flexibility
Another fun week of college football is upon us. The college football playoff rankings are officially out and teams are beginning to jockey for position. This is all great news for us, the viewers, as teams will be putting out their best performances every week, especially in terms of offense. Either way, let’s jump into the value plays of Week 10
Patrick Mahomes – (QB) Texas Tech – DraftKings: $7,600 / FanDuel: $9,800
Mahomes is inexplicably priced on DraftKings (DK) after putting up his biggest fantasy performance of the year against Oklahoma State last week. His five touchdown (four passing, one rushing) performance netted him 47.8 DK points, and was a huge boost to lineups, even at $8,100.
Obviously every week is a different story, but he has some nice factors swinging in his direction. Texas Tech faces West Virginia this week. Both teams are up-tempo and high scoring, which is represented in their combined implied team total of 80, the highest of any game this weekend. Even after four straight losses to ranked opponents, West Virginia is still averaging 32.7 points per game (PPG). Texas Tech sits at 47.3 PPG, a team that’s also battled ranked teams in four of their last six games.
As you look deeper into those four straight games West Virginia lost, you quickly realize those teams (except Oklahoma State) exploited their secondary. They allowed 320 or more passing yards in three of their last four games, including two games (against Baylor and TCU) where they allowed over 380. They also allowed 11 passing touchdowns (3.67 per game) in those games.
After considering Mahomes salary, ceiling, floor, West Virginia’s recent struggles against top passing attacks and the implied team total of 36 for Texas Tech, It all adds up to Mahomes being a great play in both cash and tournaments.
Wendell Smallwood – (RB) West Virginia – DraftKings: $6,400 / FanDuel: $6,700
Flipping to the opposite side of the game, Smallwood has been one of the biggest surprises at the running back position this year. In his first two seasons at West Virginia, he accumulated 943 rushing yards. Through seven games in 2015, he has 791 rushing yards.
In terms of the week, as mentioned above, Texas Tech and West Virginia combine for the highest implied totals. West Virginia’s implied team total is 44, which boosts up any projection you would normally have for their players.
Smallwood has had at least 14 touches and 88 yards in every game this year. Even in West Virginia’s four game losing streak, his performances have stayed steady, putting up 460 rushing yards (115 per game) in that span.
It’s important to note that he performed well against tough competition, but, thankfully, things finally lighten up this week. Texas Tech allows 270.7 rushing yards per game, good for 125th nationally (out of 128). They also come into this game allowing 43.4 PPG, which puts them 123rd nationally.
Smallwood probably doesn’t have the ceiling at his price to win you a tournament, but considering his sky-high floor, he’s a great cash game play on both sites.
Jared Baker – (RB) Arizona – DraftKings: $4,800 / FanDuel: $6,500
Starting running back Nick Wilson is officially out for the week, so adjust your running back projections accordingly.
Unfortunately, in 2015, this has become an all-too-common theme for Wilson as he’s been battling a foot injury for what has now been half the season.
Baker has filled in admirably the last four games, scoring multiple touchdowns or having 120 or more rushing yards in three of those games. The good news for Baker as a fantasy asset is that he has no real competition for carries. Freshman Orlando Bradford is the only other running back on the team to have over 30 carries this year, and 19 of his came in a 44-7 blowout win against Oregon State. Bradford has four carries in the last three games.
USC appears to be a neutral opponent. They rank 53rd in rushing yards allowed per game and 51st in rushing touchdowns allowed. However, they’ve allowed a player to go over 100 rushing yards in four of their last six games.
While USC is heavily favored, the game still has the second highest implied total of the night at 67, and Arizona is still projected to score 24 points. With Anu Solomon and Jerrard Randall in flux at quarterback, expect them to lean on the run even more in this game.
Baker has nice upside at his price on both sites, as they priced the slates before Wilson was officially announced out. He’s mainly a tournament play, but he does represent a strong enough role to be an intriguing cash game play.
Deon Cain – (WR) Clemson – DraftKings: $3,400 / FanDuel $4,700
Cain is starting to emerge in his true freshman season. He’s gone over 90 receiving yards or had a receiving touchdown in three of his last four games. The Clemson offense has been lethal all season, but the last two games they’ve really started to separate themselves, scoring a combined 114 points (57 per game).
The interesting part about the offense is they lost their main outside receiver/deep threat Mike Williams in the first games of the season, and hadn’t really found a way to replace him. Artavis Scott is a great receiver, but he’s built for slot duties, and has had only two receptions go for over 30 yards in the last six games. No one beyond tight end Jordan Leggett and the aforementioned Scott have emerged as consistent producers in the pass game.
Cain has had a reception that’s gone for 38 yards or more in three of the last four games. Clemson is beginning to work Cain, the 17th rated player (per Rivals) in the 2015 freshman class, into the offense more and more each week, and at just above the minimum price on both sites, he’s a great punt option for tournaments.
Calvin Ridley – (WR) Alabama– DraftKings: $4,800 / FanDuel: $5,500
The injury to Robert Foster was extremely unfortunate, as he was beginning to take the form of the top receiver in the Alabama offense. However, this opened the door for Calvin Ridley to emerge in his true freshman season.
Most years you’d try to stay away from the LSU secondary, but they’ve allowed 11 receptions of 30 yards or more, including seven in the last three weeks. They’re still strong athletically, but they’ve been vulnerable to the big play this year, even against weaker opponents like Eastern Michigan and Syracuse.
Since Robert Foster went out with injury, Calvin Ridley has had a touchdown or seven receptions in every game. He’s become the clear second option on offense behind Derrick Henry, and the featured player in the pass game.
Ridley is the 14th priced wide receiver on DK and 19th on FanDuel (FD). He’s a great option in all formats, though I’d prefer him as a tournament option. Price, volume and LSU’s vulnerability to big pass plays all align nicely.
Kolby Listenbee – (WR) TCU – DraftKings: $4,800 / FanDuel: $5,600
Listenbee is finally back to being a productive part of the TCU offense after struggling with an injury to start the season. He’s gone over 80 receiving yards in each of the last two games. Of Listenbee’s 19 receptions this year, four of them have gone for 30 yards or more.
TCU comes into this game fourth in passing yards per game (389.4), second in points per game (48.9) and second in total yards per game (616). Simply put, they’ve been dominant and no team has figured out a way to stop them all year.
They go up against an Oklahoma State team that gave up 53 points to Texas Tech last week. Texas Tech scored 41 of those 53 in the first half, and while they didn’t come out with a victory, they provided a glance into the volatility of this Oklahoma State defense.
Listenbee is a really nice option in cash games, especially if you’re making lineups with other TCU players. Listenbee is the perfect hedge off of Josh Doctson, who is $3,700 more expensive on FD and $3,500 more expensive on DK. TCU has an implied team total of 43, so there’s quite a few ways that both players could provide positive returns in your lineups.