CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 11
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with increased coverage of the sport from multiple platforms. My goal is to give you a weekly advantage on underrated players and roster flexibility
It seems every year around this time, things get chaotic, in both good and bad ways. Some teams are battling for playoff and bowl supremacy, others are firing their head coaches and swapping out their starting quarterbacks. While it’s important to stay up-to-date on news if you’re playing DFS throughout the year, it’s especially important to have a keen eye right now.
We’re getting sadly close to the end. Week 11, here we come.
Ikaika Woolsey – (QB) Hawaii – DraftKings: $4,700 / FanDuel: N/A
This will be Woolsey’s second consecutive start for Hawaii. The program is in disarray after firing their head coach Norm Chow, so they’re hoping a swap at quarterback will bring positive change. In a normal week, Hawaii would be a complete avoid offensively. Between Woolsey and Max Wittek, they haven’t gone over 300 passing yards in a game and haven’t thrown a touchdown in five of their seven games. However, this isn’t a normal week. The Rainbow Warriors are 4.5 point favorites at home against a Fresno State team that’s allowing 39.7 points per game.
Hawaii has an implied team total of 30.5, so the while the offense has been extremely limited so far, Vegas believes this is a good spot for them to finally get the ball rolling.
Woolsey was actually the starter over Wittek in 2014, but after a lackluster season, the team decided to go in a different direction.
Woolsey’s price is the most important factor in all of this. At $4,700, He doesn’t need that much production to hit and exceed value. The volume will be there, in a nice matchup. He’s strictly a tournament play for this week. As mentioned before, the track record for this Hawaii offense in 2015 doesn’t inspire confidence, so while he is a nice value and really good play, the wheels can still fly off the hinges.
Charles Jones – (RB) Kansas State – DraftKings: $4,100 / FanDuel: $4,700
Jones has been trending in the right direction over the last month. He’s had over 13 carries and over 75 rushing yards in three of his last four games, and has supplanted himself as Kansas State’s starting running back. Only one other running back has had over six carries in a game over the last month.
While his volume and fantasy statistics haven’t blown the doors off yet, this week’s matchup against Texas Tech has true breakout potential for Jones.
The Red Raiders have the second worst rush defense in college football. They come into this game allowing 273 rushing yards per game. Teams average 5.8 yards per carry against them, and they’ve given up 3.3 rushing touchdowns per game. Seven players have gone above 130 rushing yards against them, including two games over 200 (Mike Warren and Samaje Perine).
There is no better matchup for running backs. When you consider Jones role in the offense, production over the last month and his teams implied team total of 33, I’d feel comfortable having full exposure this weekend.
Jovon Robinson – (RB) – Auburn – DraftKings: $4,700 / FanDuel: $5,000
Robinson had high expectations attached to him entering the 2015 season. After four carries in the first seven games, most considered him a bust, at least for this year. Over the last two games, however, Auburn has finally decided to give the junior running back a solid share of the carries.
In those last two games, he’s gone over 18 carries and over 90 rushing yards in each. Peyton Barber, the other running back in the Auburn committee, has scored well in terms of fantasy because of the volume they gave him in the first seven games, but, hasn’t had a per carry average over 3.5 yards in his last four games.
Auburn is a favorite at home, has an implied team total of 27 and hasn’t been able to get the passing game going all season. Expect both Barber and Robinson to be substantial parts of the game plan, but with price considered, Robinson is the safer play with higher upside. He’s still more of a tournament play, but wouldn’t be against using him in cash games as well.
Malachi Dupre – (WR) LSU – DraftKings: $3,500 / FanDuel $5,000
Dupre was in the middle of breaking out statistically in his sophomore campaign before the Alabama game last week. He had at least 74 receiving yards and a touchdown in each of his previous three games.
LSU is at home this weekend, and favored by 7.5 points over Arkansas. They have an implied team total of 31 as well. There’s no confusion about Leonard Fournette being the main fantasy contributor on offense. He will dominate touches and score a majority of the touchdowns. However, at what is basically a minimum salary, Dupre should be strongly considered as a punt play at wide receiver.
Dominique Reed – (WR) Arkansas – DraftKings: $3,300 / FanDuel: $5,600
Reed is coming off his first 100 yard receiving game of his career. The six-foot-four, former three-star recruit has found his role in the offense. While he hadn’t gone over the century before last week, he’s been over 14 DK points in each of the last four weeks.
Arkansas is on the road against a tough LSU team. They’re getting 7.5 points in the matchup, but considering the teams records and results so far, that’s a close line. They have an implied team total of 23, so that’s not great either. We also know that Arkansas has a run-heavy offense. So why would Reed be a good option?
LSU is 7th in the nation in rush yards allowed, and that’s after they gave up over 200 to Derrick Henry and Alabama. On a normal week, they’re one of the best run-stopping teams in the country, so It’s most likely going to be a tough week on the ground for Alex Collins.
LSU has been vulnerable in the pass game. They’re ranked 60th in passing yards allowed per game and have given up 11 pass plays of 30 yards or more. They didn’t give up any last week, but had seven in the previous three weeks.
Reed is a nice punt option for tournaments, and presents a lot of upside and a reasonable floor for his price.
Chris Brown – (WR) Notre Dame – DraftKings: $3,600 / FanDuel: $4,500
Brown has been overshadowed by the boisterous season teammate Will Fuller is having, but the senior is quietly second on the team in receptions (34), yards (424) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (2).
Notre Dame takes on Wake Forest at home, where they’re 27 point favorites and have an implied team total of 40. Wake Forest’s seasonal defensive numbers look good on the outside, especially their 20th ranked 184.2 passing yards allowed per game. However, They’ve only faced one top 30 passing offense this year (North Carolina) and they gave up 50 points in that game. Based on these factors, I don’t expect much resistance in the passing game.
Brown is a nice secondary option in the pass game, and considering the opponent and implied team total this week, I’d feel comfortable using him in cash games.