CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 13
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with increased coverage of the sport from multiple platforms. My goal is to give you a weekly advantage on underrated players and roster flexibility
The last week of the regular season is here. It’s been fun it’s shocking that the end is here. Much like last week, a lot of injuries are going to make a large impact on lineup construction. This is an unfortunate byproduct of the game we enjoy so much.
Let’s get into it.
Bart Houston/Joel Stave – (QB) Wisconsin – DraftKings: $4,100/$4,400 / FanDuel: $4,900/$5,000
Minnesota is a team that played very well early in the season, but has slowly regressed into a below average team as things have pushed along. They started out winning three of their first four games, with the only loss coming to a fully healthy TCU team. Since that run and since entering conference play, they’ve lost five of their last seven games, giving up 27 or more points in all of those losses.
Going in this direction is a super punt play at the quarterback position. Not only will they (whoever starts) be the cheapest quarterback on the slate, but they’re cheaper than five backup quarterbacks on DraftKings. Clearly you aren’t looking for a high ceiling with this duo, but you’ll only need a passing touchdown and 250 passing yards to hit value, which is reasonable against Minnesota’s defense.
In Houston’s only other start this year he threw for 232 passing yards and two touchdowns. Stave still isn’t practicing, and while it appears like he has a chance to play, it’s far from a sure thing. Teams are forced to be transparent with concussions, so this situation (Stave’s status) should resolve itself before kickoff.
Wisconsin has an implied team total of 23 and are favored by three points on the road. Rarely do you find cheap quarterback options where their teams are favored.
Joe Williams – (RB) Utah – DraftKings: $5,300 / FanDuel: $6,000
Williams had played sparingly throughout the season, but with Devontae Booker going down with injury, he’s been given the keys to the Utah running game. Last week he performed very well against a tough UCLA team, accounting for 152 total yards and 30 touches. He did lose a fumble, so that’s something to be aware of, but based on post game interviews and reports from the team, it doesn’t appear it will affect his role in future weeks.
Utah is favored by 16 at home and has an implied team total of 33. Travis Wilson has thrown three touchdowns in his last four games and has thrown for under 200 passing yards six times this year. To complicate matters even more, Britain Covey, their top receiving option, will not play this weekend. Utah isn’t subtle about the running game being the focal point of their offense, and as mentioned above, that trend has continued even after their star running back is out of the equation.
Wilson is priced very cheaply as well, so he’s a solid stacking option in cash games if you do play Williams. He has six rushing touchdowns on the year, so he’s not afraid to be a goal line vulture. After taking the implied team total and salaries into account, both have a good shot at reaching value.
Dare Ogunbowale – (RB) – Wisconsin – DraftKings: $4,300 / FanDuel: $5,400
Corey Clement is once again out, which leaves the versatile Ogunbowale in the lead running back role. Before last week, a game that Clement played, Ogunbowale had gone nine straight games with 15 touches. While he didn’t provide a huge ceiling, he had over 14 DraftKings points in eight of those games. He has 33 receptions on the year, so even if the offense can’t get much going, his usage in the passing game raises his floor.
As mentioned, Wisconsin is projected for around three touchdowns. If he can get one of those and add in a few receptions, you’re looking at really nice return on his price for both sites.
It’s tougher to fit him in on FanDuel, especially in tournaments because of the high ceiling needed per position. He’s a nice fit in all formats on DraftKings, especially with the value difference for receptions.
Chris Moore – (WR) Cincinnati – DraftKings: $5,800 / FanDuel N/A
Moore has emerged as a high ceiling/high floor player in the recent weeks. In fact, he’s gone over 70 yards and had a receiving touchdown in each of his last four games, including two games with over 130 receiving yards.
Moore has always displayed big play ability throughout his career. He’s averaged over 20 yards per reception in three of his four seasons, and scored a touchdown on over 20 percent of his receptions every year. Last week against South Florida, Moore’s starting quarterback Gunner Kiel got pulled after one quarter of play, and he still figured out a way to pull in six receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown.
Cincinnati is a two point underdog on the road and they have an implied team total of 33. East Carolina has lost three of their last four and four of their last six. East Carolina has had trouble defending the top receiving options in offenses. They’ve given up more than 90 receiving yards to a player six times this year.
I like Moore as a stand-alone value this week, and not someone you need to stack. He’s scored 23 or more DraftKings points in four of the last six weeks. The upside is there, and after a six week sample size, it appears the consistency is as well.
Rashard Higgins – (WR) Colorado State – DraftKings: $6,700 / FanDuel: $7,500
Higgins last two games have been reminiscent of what we got used to in 2014. Both game over seven receptions, above 100 yards and one game with three touchdowns. Injuries, losing his quarterback Garrett Grayson to the NFL and his head coach leaving have made 2015 a bumpy road. However, with him finally back to full health, Higgins is back to dominating the competition.
Higgins has an easy matchup this week, he faces a weak Fresno State defense that allows 38.5 points per game. They’ve allowed a player to go over 95 receiving yards in three straight games. Colorado State is favored by ten points and has an implied team total of 34.
Higgins price isn’t cheap, but he’s a nice contrarian play. Due to his inconsistent fantasy production this year and being priced next to Laquon Treadwell and Sterling Shepard, his ownership percentages are likely to be lower on both sites. He provides similar upside as those two, however, and arguably has the best matchup.
Fred Ross – (WR) Mississippi State – DraftKings: $5,100 / FanDuel: $6,200
Ross has really emerged recently. He’s gone over eight receptions and 110 receiving yards in each of the last three weeks. His quarterback, Dak Prescott, has been on fire the last five weeks, passing for over 300 yards in every game and throwing for three or more touchdowns in four of those games.
They matchup against a Mississippi team who beat LSU 38-to-17 a week ago and played in a game that provided 105 total points two weeks ago. Much like Prescott, Chad Kelly has been fantastic as a fantasy contributor of late. In his last six games he’s thrown 14 touchdown passes and ran in six more. Both offenses are peaking at the right time, and with the implied team totals set at 64, there’s good chance we see more fireworks this weekend.
Both teams pass over 52% of the time and neither has been able to find consistency in the running game this year. Those two things normally add up to a positive gameflow.
Ross is a great value in all formats on both sites, and doesn’t necessarily need to be stacked with Dak Prescott to make sense in your lineups.