CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 5
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with everyone increasing their coverage and attention to the sport. My goal is to provide you a weekly advantage on underrated plays and roster flexibility.
If you played last week’s slate, you saw fast-paced scoring throughout all of Saturday, and tournament lineups higher than any we’d seen in the previous three weeks. Expect more of the same this time around, especially in the early slate. Some of the highest projected point totals of the entire season are present, so keep an eye out, and be very careful with how you approach cash games.
Let’s get into it…
Dane Evans – (QB) Tulsa – DraftKings: $7,900 / FanDuel: $8,200
Evans has yet to disappoint as a fantasy asset this season, even against a tough opponent in Oklahoma last week. Evans has thrown for over 300 yards in all three of his games so far, and over 400 in two. The system Phil Montgomery brought from Baylor has clicked instantly, and the byproduct of that is consistent, high-end fantasy points.
The projected point total for this game is 81, so you can expect fireworks early and often. Houston has a high scoring and fast paced offense as well, so this is a great combination. Evans has a great floor, and I really like him in cash games.
If you do decide to play Evans in cash games, it’s a great idea to stack him with RB Zach Langer. Langer has 25 touches or more in every game, and he’s also had at least one touchdown in each. With teams worried about the pass, the running lanes have opened up quickly.
Tulsa is getting to 35 points in this game, minimum. So, getting good pieces of the offense is always a plus.
Matthew Dayes – (RB) North Carolina State – DraftKings: $5,300 / FanDuel: $5,100
We normally see one or two players a week with a big scoring pricing gap, but It appears Dayes has slipped through the system on both sites this week. It’s totally fair to question the quality of opponents North Carolina State has gone up against so far, but you can’t ignore the role Dayes has in the offense. In their first four games, Dayes has 87 total touches, nine rushing touchdowns and over 100 rushing yards in every game. Even if those numbers are inflated, that’s still a huge role in the offense.
The biggest news of the week is that the main competition for touches, Shadrach Thornton, was officially dismissed from the team. With that considered, I’m extremely confident in Dayes’ path to production.
North Carolina State’s team total is only 26, which would normally be terrifying on a slate like this, but with Dayes price so deflated, I’m comfortable slotting him into my cash game and tournament lineups. My main goal of the weekend is to stack the high-end QB/WR combos, so in order to do that, you need nice values at the RB spot.
Ke’aun Kinner – (RB) Kansas – DraftKings: $4,900 / FanDuel: N/A
This is DK-only play, so don’t spend the two minutes I did on FD looking for him.
Kinner is another solid, cheap option this week with reasonable upside. He’s had 100 rushing yards or two touchdowns in every game. Also, he’s had a play of at least 24 yards in each game, showing off nice burst. It’s extremely promising when a player can stand out and play well even when everyone else around them is struggling, and that’s just what Kinner has done
Kansas has a projected team total of 22, and if they’re going to reach that number, it’s going to come on the shoulders of the junior RB. Something else to monitor is the QB situation, which has been in flux the past few weeks with injuries. With that considered, the passing game is even less of a threat to steal production.
Kinner is a great play in all formats this week. He gives you a ton of flexibility and a high volume floor of 20 DK points. That’s something you’ll take every time from a RB priced under $5,000.
Shelton Gibson – (WR) West Virginia – DraftKings: $4,600 / FanDuel: $6,000
Gibson was a major hit last week, going for six receptions, 118 yards and two touchdowns. He was extremely cheap on both sites and made for one of the better plays of the week with how much salary cap he opened up at other positions. Surprisingly, his price didn’t jump much from last week, even after the big game.
West Virginia does face a tougher opponent in Oklahoma, but, Tulsa didn’t have much trouble moving the ball against them last week and they play a similar style. Gibson is a great player to stack with his also underpriced counterpart, Skyler Howard, West Virginia’s QB. With those two in your lineup (especially on DraftKings), it gives you a chance to team those two up with an elite receiving option, like Corey Coleman or Josh Doctson.
I prefer Gibson as a tournament play, though I won’t rule him out in cash either. If you’re going to risk the stack of Howard/Gibson, though, you’re going to need to hit on some punt plays to stay in it with the higher priced QBs.
Ed’Marques Batties – (WR) Middle Tennessee – DraftKings: $6,200 / FanDuel: N/A
Before the 2015 season began, Batties’ college career looked rather pedestrian. He had no statistics recorded his freshman and sophomore seasons, and only had 474 yards on 45 receptions (10.5 per reception) in 2014.
However, things changed in a big way in 2015, his senior season. In the three non-Alabama games Batties has played, he’s had over 120 yards and two touchdowns in all of them. He’s averaging 14.9 yards per reception, is second in the nation with seven receiving touchdowns, and most importantly, is averaging 31.2 DK points per game.
I’d be more worried about his price if they were going up against a tougher SEC school, but nothing about what Vanderbilt’s defense has done so far this season is scaring me off Batties at that price.
I prefer Batties in tournaments because of his upside, but he also sets up nicely in cash games.
Drew Morgan – (WR) Arkansas – DraftKings: $4,700 / FanDuel: $5,700
Arkansas was left scrambling last week with the season ending injury to Keon Hatcher. Thankfully, Drew Morgan filled in admirably. Not only did he rack up eight receptions, 155 receiving yards and a touchdown (32.5 DK points, not too shabby), but he also established himself as the main target in the passing game.
Arkansas has had the identity of being a run heavy team for quite a few years now, but with the extremely efficient play of QB Brandon Allen (completing 70.3 percent of his passes), there’s yards to be had every game.
Morgan is a “I need a cheap WR to make this lineup work” play this week. While he’s been efficient, Brandon Allen isn’t a stacking option. This is going to be the last week you’ll find Morgan in this price range, so figuring out a way to have a few shares is highly recommended.