CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 6
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with everyone increasing their coverage and attention to the sport. My goal is to provide you a weekly advantage on underrated plays and roster flexibility.
Week 6 will be defined by who plays well in ‘next man up’ roles for injured players. There’s quite a few pivot spots this week where we know there’s going to be production, but the fantasy scoring distribution remains a ‘mystery’.
Anyhow, another week of college football goodness is upon us! Let’s dig in.
Baker Mayfield – (QB) Oklahoma – DraftKings: $8,000 / FanDuel: $8,900
Normally you wouldn’t see a player so highly priced make this list, but Mayfield’s price tag on DraftKings is a serious bargain compared to his contemporaries. I like him on FanDuel as well, but he’s accurately priced.
Mayfield comes into this game averaging 37.8 DK points per game, including a 58.98 performance just two weeks ago. The upside is there for tournaments, and the floor is also there, especially with price considered.
This week he’s going up against a Texas defense that’s given up 28 points or more in each of their five games in 2015, including; 38 points to Notre Dame, 45 points to California and 50 points to TCU (47 of which came in three quarters). Charlie Strong hasn’t had nearly the impact Texas fans have hopes and this is a defense you should be targeting every week.
While I love Mayfield, I’m not trusting any of the receivers as anything more than tournament stacking options. Sterling shepard is a great college player, and a likely NFL player in 2016, but his production has been anything but consistent this year. With two games under 12 DK points and only one 100 receiving yard game under his belt, Shepard is far from a sure thing at his price.
I’m also not worried about the running game. They’ve really toned down Samaje Perine’s role this year, as compared to 2014 where they used him as a workhorse. Joe Mixon has been a constant thorn in Perine’s side, they have mixed him in from the start, and consistently. Without workhorse carries, Perine’s numbers have fallen off. He’s only had one game with a per carry average over 4.1.
Joe Mixon is actually an intriguing value on both sites because of the way Oklahoma mixes up his touch distribution. He’s been a part of both the run and pass game, and has a touchdown (one rushing, two receiving) in three of the last four games.
Kent Myers – (QB) Utah State – DraftKings: $5,700 / FanDuel: N/A
We only have a one game sample size, but it’s a spectacular! It’s a shame this is only a DK play, because he would’ve been underpriced on both sites had he been added to the slate
Myers looked great in spot-start duty for oft-injured Chuckie Keeton, and with Keeton about to miss the next four-to-six weeks with a knee injury, Myers has a real chance to emerge. It’s fairly clear that the 191 rushing yards isn’t sustainable, but that fact that he showed the ability to reach those heights is important.
In last game there was nice rapport with senior wide receiver Hunter Sharp. I love them as cheap stacking options in all formats. It’s very rare that you can find THAT much upside for that cheap ($10,600 total).
White there’s enough to get excited on the Utah State side on its own, their opponent is what really makes Myers an awesome play.
Fresno State has lost all four of it’s division one games this year, and has given up 45 or more in three of them. They only gave up 21 last week to San Diego State, but that’s because Donnel Pumphrey (their best player and workhorse running back) left the game in the early third quarter. Pumphrey had 123 rushing yards and a touchdown before he left.
Strangely, the biggest reason why Fresno State has given up so many points is because the offense consistently leaves them in bad positions. They simply can’t move the ball. Marteze Waller is a good running back, but teams have clamped down on him this year because they know Fresno can’t throw the ball. He has zero rushing touchdowns in 96 rushes so far in 2015. Zach Greenlee completed less than 50 percent of his passes last week, and only threw for 77 yards. His three passing touchdowns against Utah came in the fourth quarter, when they were already down by 28 points. His other three touchdowns came against Abilene Christian.
The line is only 11, but there’s real blowout potential here. Unless Marteze Waller can carry the offense and keep the offense from constantly going three and out, Utah State could run away with this one quickly.
Mike Warren – (RB) Iowa State – DraftKings: $6,000 / FanDuel: $6,200
Warren is just a freshman, but that hasn’t stopped him from rushing for 301 yards in the last two weeks. Iowa State has a projected team total of 32 and their quarterback hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards in any of their four games. If they’re going to keep up with Texas Tech, at all, they’re going to do with with Warren having a huge game.
We know Patrick Mahomes and company are going to score furiously, so the pace of this game is going to set up nicely. The average combined team point totals in Texas Tech games this year has been 88.25, that’s an enormous number. While Iowa State’s offense isn’t the same breed as Baylor and TCU’s, over the last two weeks, Texas Tech has allowed 118 points.
Warren is a great play in all formats, and is a darkhorse to finish the day as a top five scorer at running back. His price, skill and matchup are aligned and barring injury, will bring positive returns.
Demario Richard – (RB) Arizona State – DraftKings: $7,400 / FanDuel: $7,300
Richard gets a break after facing two really tough defenses (UCLA and USC) in back-to-back weeks. He performed well, but after two weeks with less than 30 fantasy points, his price has steadily dropped.
Colorado faced its first tough test of the season last week, and promptly gave up 41 points to an Oregon Team that lost it’s best receiver (Byron Marshall) for the season and who doesn’t have a real option at quarterback.
Royce Freeman ran for over 163 yards and had two touchdowns, I could see a similar performance for Richard. The advantage Richard has, however, and why I think he could score even more than Freeman did, is that he’s used in the pass game. Richard has had four or more receptions in three of Arizona State’s five games this year, and had eight last week against UCLA.
He may not fit into every lineup, but If you’re playing the late slate, I would highly suggest putting Richard in at least 50 percent of your lineups, especially tournaments. No running back has higher upside with price considered.
Aaron Burbridge – (WR) Michigan State – DraftKings: $5,500 / FanDuel: $6,100
Unlike Richard, Burbridge is someone you should be fitting into every lineup, in all formats.
It’s been a swift fall from grace for Burbridge, after accumulating 22 receptions for 374 receiving yards and four touchdowns, he’s had five catches for 40 yards in the last two weeks. The drop appears strange, but quite frankly, Michigan State hasn’t been challenged in these recent games, and the passing game as a whole, has suffered.
The talent is there, and while the risk of a third down game in a row is there, the price negates any of the risk. The other part of this is that he will be low owned after two down weeks. Most will not feel comfortable playing him after back to back down performances.
Rutgers doesn’t have a bad defense, but against non-Kansas opponents, they’ve given up an average of 32.5 points per game. The longer Rutgers can stay in the game, the better for Burbridge.
Rodney Mills – (TE) Massachusetts – DraftKings: $3,000 / FanDuel: $3,100
WARNING: Mills is a players that you’re going to have to keep an eye on, as he just returned to practice this week. They are confident he will play, but with the shotty coverage of injuries in college football, you need to be aware and be able to swap him out of something changes.
If there’s one thing I can absolutely guarantee this weekend, it’s that Massachusetts vs Bowling Green is going to be a shootout, and you want as many shares of this game as you can. The O/U is 79 and Umass has a projected team total of 33.
Mills is a min play on DK and is the always troublesome tight end designation on FD. This is the type of player that can give you a huge leg up in cash games on FanDuel, and opens up a TON of room for higher upside players in other spots on DraftKings.
In Mills only other game this year, against an extremely tough Temple defense, he went off for five receptions, 104 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Surely you can’t expect that type of performance, but you don’t need anything close to that for him to still exceed value.
Mills is also a really nice hedge on star receiver Tajae Sharpe, who is priced as the third highest wide receiver on DK and seventh on FD.
Stacking Blake Frohnapfel, Tajae Sharpe, Markel Michel and Mills only costs $21,900 and would leave you $28,100 for your final five spots in cash games. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.