CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 7
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with everyone increasing their coverage and attention to the sport. My goal is to provide you a weekly advantage on underrated plays and roster flexibility.
It’s hard to believe we’re half way through the regular season. Just six weeks remain, and things are coming into focus. Teams and players are starting to reveal themselves, and trends are setting in. Luckily for us, there’s still quite a few players flying under the radar that have very reasonable prices this week.
Chad Kelly – (QB) Mississippi – DraftKings: $7,400 / FanDuel: $8,400
Kelly is halfway through redeeming himself with his new team. A year after getting kicked off the Clemson football team, Kelly is 11th in the nation in passing touchdowns and ninth in passing yards. In terms of fantasy, he already has three games with three or more touchdowns, and four games with 300 yards passing. Combine that with the fact that he also had four rushing touchdowns, and you have an extremely high-floored quarterback with the potential to be a top three option in any slate.
Kelly is the ninth-highest priced quarterback in the early Saturday slate on DK, and while $7,400 normally isn’t cheap, it is an extreme bargain here.
Not only is there stand-alone value, but he’s going against a team in Memphis that pushes the pace and has allowed 307 passing yards per game, which puts them 122 out of 128 division one programs.
While I love Kelly, unfortunately there isn’t much in terms of stacking options. Laquon Treadwell finally had the breakout performance we’ve been looking for last week, but based on the other five games this year, It’s very random who gets the bulk of the production from game-to-game.
Feel confident putting Kelly in any lineup, He’s the safest production on the slate with price considered. Jaylen Walton is a nice hedge in tournaments.
Brenden Motley/Michael Brewer- (QB) Virginia Tech – DraftKings: $5,500/$5,300 / FanDuel: $7,000/$6,100
These two are listed as co-starters this week, as we’re still waiting for Michael Brewer will be medically cleared. Either way, whoever does end up starting has a nice matchup, and is a great tournament play. Because of the uncertainty around them, their price has been completely surprised, and they are among the cheapest starting quarterbacks on both sites.
In Motley’s five starts, he’s gone over 20 DK and FD points in four of them. This includes last week, against a really solid NC State Defense.
We’re really not sure what Michael Brewer can bring to the table, but because of emerging, talented sophomores Isaiah Ford and Bucky Hodges, I feel comfortable knowing they can make big plays, even if throws aren’t perfect.
Travon McMilllian got his first shot at a real workload in his freshman season. It was a relatively quiet evening for him, until he made the game clinching 59 yard touchdown run. No coincedence he was officially named the starting running back this week. He’s worth a flier in tournaments this week, not only as a hedge if you’re playing the quarterback or wide receivers, but because we’ve never seen him with a starting workload. There could be some untapped potential here.
Miami’s seasonal defensive numbers don’t reflect how weak they’ve actually been. In non Bethune-Cookman and Florida Atlantic games, Miami is giving up 32 points per game, and have looked terrible in the process.
You don’t need miracles for the Virginia Tech quarterbacks to make a good lineup. As long as you can get 20 points, you’ve given yourself enough of a window because of the cap space you opened up for the rest of your lineup.
Elijah Hood – (RB) North Carolina – DraftKings: $5,400 / FanDuel: $5,800
From Marquise Williams to Quinshad Davis to Bug Howard, there’s almost no way to know who’s going to get the production each week in the passing game. Even backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky has gotten in and had some nice performances. And then there’s Elijah Hood, who each week gets his 12-15 carries, and either runs for 100 yards or gets a touchdown.
Hood is a cash game only play, as he simply doesn’t get the volume of touches to win you a tournament. But, I love his floor in cash games. He’s gone over 100 rushing yards or had two rushing touchdowns in every game against division one opponents this year.
His role is secured as the featured running back, and you can’t do better than that for how cheaply he’s priced.
Wake Forest’s defense has held up relatively well against some weak offenses, but they were let off the hook against Florida State a few weeks ago. Cook had two carries for 94 yards and a touchdown before leaving with an injury, who knows what punishment he would’ve put them through. They also allowed Indiana running back Jordan Howard to run for 168 yards and a touchdown, so they’re susceptible to good running backs.
Derrick Henry (RB) Alabama – DraftKings: $7,300 / FanDuel: $7,300
This game could go any number of directions, but a constant will be Derrick Henry. Henry has scored a touchdown in every game this season, including two games where he had three. Texas A&M has given up 90 or more rushing yards to a player in four of their five games this year, including a 151 yards to Alex Collins.
Jake Coker finally got the passing game going last week against Arkansas, passing for over 250 yards for the first time in 2015. This can only mean good things for Henry, as teams will not be able to stack the box on every play.
Henry has 23 or more carries in three of the last four games, and the only reason he had 13 against Louisiana-Monroe was because he didn’t play in the second half.
His workload carries immense potential, even if they haven’t used him in the passing game this year. I’d feel very comfortable using him in cash games this week, and while he doesn’t have the same upside as the top end running backs, 100 yards and two or three touchdowns is a likely outcome. The good news is, with his price, Henry doesn’t need to reach the highest end upside, which is something you had to deal with early on in the season.
KaVontae Turpin – (WR) TCU – DraftKings: $4,400 / FanDuel: $4,900
Turpin is a very unique player in the high-powered TCU offense. He’s listed as a wide receiver, but most of his work is done out of the backfield or in motion. His role has slowly emerged as the season went on, gaining extra steam after his six catch, 138 yard and four touchdown game against Texas.
Turpin’s role came to be because of injuries to Deante’ Gray and Kolby Listenbee, but with each week those two sit out with injury, Turpin’s role solidifies. Do keep an eye on Listenbee, as he should be returning within the next few weeks.
Iowa State has a strong defense, but TCU is matchup-proof at this juncture. It would be a major upset if they don’t score over 45 points.
Isaiah Jones – (WR) East Carolina – DraftKings: $5,800 FanDuel: $5,900
Jones has had a strong start to the 2015 season. He’s had six or more receptions in all but one of his games, and he’s been over 10 receptions three times already. Justin Hardy left a lot of production behind as he headed to the NFL, and Jones has grasped the main receiver role.
In a game with an O/U of 77, There should be a ton of points to go around. As we all know, Tulsa is a high-powered, fast-paced team who moves the ball up and down the field quickly. They also have one of the weakest defenses in the country. They rank 123rd in yards allowed per game (554) and 109th in points allowed per game (35.8).
I like the idea of quarterback Blake Kemp as a stacking option, but I would keep that to tournaments. Wide receiver Trevon Brown has scored a touchdown in three straight games and is a nice hedging option off of Jones.