CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 8
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with increased coverage of the sport from multiple platforms. My goal is to give you a weekly advantage on underrated players and roster flexibility
Holy early slate! It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize where your bread will be buttered early this Saturday. The quarterback(s) you chose will define your upside (and downside). There will be no quarterbacks written about this week, as I think you should be paying up at that position.
Let’s get into it!
Kareem Hunt – (RB) Toledo – DraftKings: $6,400 / FanDuel: $7,100
After a mind-boggling 2014 season where he ran for 1600 yards and 16 touchdowns, Hunt has gotten off to a rocky start in 2015. Not only was he suspended for the first two games of the year, but he compounded that with a hamstring injury that made him miss an additional two games. It seems Toledo has been careful with him the past two games, limiting his workload to 25 total carries in back-to-back blowout performances. The moral of this story is that Hunt has been a shell of his fantasy-self from a season ago, but the talent remains intact.
The bruising and well-balanced runner goes up against a UMass defense that has allowed 231 rush yards per game (118th nationally) and given up 37.7 points per game (115th nationally). The good news in this game is that UMass’ offense should be strong enough to keep this game close. This is more important for Hunt than usual, as they’re still limiting his role.
When he’s healthy, he has a hold on the feature running back role. While we haven’t fully seen his ceiling yet in 2015, you don’t have to look far back into history to see a 30 or 40 fantasy point performance isn’t far-fetched. In 2014, Hunt had six games of 140 rushing yards or more.
He’s a tournament play this week, as there’s some volatility to his opponent and how his workload is going to figure itself out, but he has tremendous upside.
Saquon Barkley – (RB) Penn State – DraftKings: $5,600 / FanDuel: $7,300
With the gluttony of breakout running back stars we’ve been provided with the past few seasons, you’d expect regression to take it’s course eventually. We’re only seven weeks into the season, and this is looking like another big year for the position. Even with some stiff competition, Saquon Barkley is leading the charge as the shining star for freshman.
Barkley has two games with over 20 rushes, he had over 190 rushing yards in both. Other than the first game of the season (one carry, one yard against Temple), Barkley has yet to have a game where he averaged less than 7.5 yards per carry. Simply put, he’s been dominant whenever they’ve handed him the ball.
I view Barkley as a matchup-proof player; his talent is immense and he’s displayed it enough time for me to feel comfortable saying this. Christian Hackenberg is a game manager at this stage in his college career, and the team seems very content to have him hand it off 25 or more times a game. Penn State is favored by 6.5 in this game; if they can gain control early, don’t be surprised if Barkley runs for over 200 yards.
Even after his 194 rushing yard performance at ohio state, Barkley’s cost on DK is criminal. He’s a must-play in all formats on that site. He has a nice price on FD as well, but with the skyrocketing prices of the top quarterbacks in that slate, it makes it tough to fit in anything other than really cheap pieces. It’s finally time to pay the piper on the Seth Russell/Corey Coleman stack.
Myles Gaskin – (RB) Washington – DraftKings: $5,000 / FanDuel: $6,800
I was a big fan of Dwayne Washington heading into the year. It seemed like a combination of solid fantasy situation and a skilled player who showed well in a small sample size had collided. I was a little shocked to track Washington’s progress and see he was doing the opposite of seizing the feature role. While the role was squandered early on, It opened things up to get Gaskin a real opportunity at touches in his freshman season.
Gaskin got to display his skills early in the season against Sacramento state, rushing for 146 yards and three touchdowns on 14 carries, but those were more a byproduct of the opponent. The last two weeks, against Oregon and USC, he’s stolen the show. Averaging 21 touches in those two games, he ran for 289 yards and had two touchdowns. Importantly for us, he went over 20 fantasy points (any site or format) in both contests.
Washington’s status is up in the air for this week, but you shouldn’t shy away from Gaskin even if he does play. He played in the USC game, and that didn’t change anything.
Stanford is a tough defense to go up against, but just a week ago, they gave up 100 rushing yards to Paul Perkins on only 14 carries. There’s also a chance that starting quarterback Jake Browning could miss this week, so if that does happen, it’s even more of a reason to like Gaskin.
All in all, Gaskin is a great tournament play. He’s slightly too risky for cash games until we get further information on Jake Browning and Dwayne Washington, but depending on how the news on them falls, I wouldn’t be afraid of him in cash, either. He’s carved out a role, regardless, so touches are a sure thing.
Drew Morgan – (WR) Arkansas – DraftKings: $4,600 / FanDuel $5,700
Morgan is once again undervalued on both sites. Since Keon Hatcher’s extremely unfortunate major injury, Morgan has grabbed the featured receiver role and thrived. This is a bit shocking considering what is a run-heavy gameplan by Arkansas, but the results have been there. Morgan struggled to gain yards against a strong Alabama defense last week, but he’d been over 100 receiving yards in his two previous games, against Tennessee and Texas A&M. In those two games, Arkansas didn’t pass for a lot of yards. In fact, Morgan had a 50 percent or more market share of the receiving yards in both weeks.
Morgan has had four or more receptions in every game since week two. Arkansas is favored by six at home against Auburn. Auburn has a respectable defense(70th in passing yards allowed, 61st in points per game allowed), but are far from a ‘shut down’ or ‘avoid the player because they’re playing them’ type.
I like Morgan as a tournament play, but really, he’s extremely easy to fit in and feel good about in most lineups. His consistency within the offense, target-share and ability to make big plays would make me feel comfortable using him in cash games as well.
Malachi Dupre – (WR) LSU – DraftKings: $4,100 / FanDuel: $5,800
We’re finally starting to see one of the best sophomore receivers in the nation get targets. Dupre has never REALLY been a secret. He was the 15th rated prospect in the high school class of 2014, and second overall wide receiver prospect (per Rivals). He went to a school that has put out some of the best NFL talent of the past decade, and has played a solid amount of snaps since his true freshman season. The huge elephant in the room keeping Dupre from a statistical breakout has been his quarterback play.
While Brandon Harris has been the main culprit at quarterback early in the early season, he’s gotten much better the past two weeks, throwing for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. The hulking presence of Leonard Fournette getting all the attention from opposing defenses is likely a reason, but nonetheless, the passing yards, and production for Dupre are trending in the right direction.
Dupre has had over 70 receiving yards and a touchdown in three of his last four games. With his price considered, this is a nice spot to plug him in hope the breakout season continues.
Rodney Mills – (WR/TE) UMass – DraftKings: $3,400 / FanDuel: $4,000
Normally I wouldn’t suggest a player that will be so highly owned, but especially in cash games, you need to have Mills in your lineups. Over the last three games, since returning from injury, the UMass tight end has 15 receptions, 300 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He’s had over 96 yards in all of those games, and has supplanted himself has the second receiving option in a high-scoring offense.
It’s likely that their opponent this week has something to do with his low prices. Heading into this game, Toledo is allowing only 13.2 points per game (7th in the nation), are 6-0 and are ranked 19th in the country. They haven’t played a cupcake schedule, either, dismantling big-time programs like Iowa State and Arkansas. Even though those two teams have struggled to find victories this year (both 2-4), that isn’t because they are short on talent, those are strong victories.
With all that said, the passing game is where UMass is strongest, and where Mills finds his production. Toledo is ranked 89th in passing yards allowed per game, so they haven’t been impenetrable in that facet. UMass played them tough last year on the road, losing 42-35 on a Terry Swanson rushing touchdown with 34 second left. Blake Frohnapfel had five touchdown passes and threw for 438 yards. So while it came in a losing effort, there was a positive precedent set for the passing game.