CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 9
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with increased coverage of the sport from multiple platforms. My goal is to give you a weekly advantage on underrated players and roster flexibility
Greg Ward JR. – (QB) Houston – DraftKings: $8,200 / FanDuel: $10,000
There’s no denying Ward disappointed owners last weekend. He hit season lows in passing yards and rushing yards. He also handed the ball off to Kenneth Farrow, who ran for three touchdowns. With yardage down across the board, Ward not getting the lionshare of the touchdowns sealed the deal on him not hitting value. You were saved on DraftKings, as he wasn’t on the slate, but FanDuel was a different story.
However, that was one week, and it was a clear outlier from the rest of his 2015 resume. Ward has thrown for over 200 yards and had 10 rushing attempts in every game. Last week broke his four game streak of two or more rushing touchdowns.
Vanderbilt is no slouch defensively. They rank 13th nationally in points against (16.3) and are ranked 16th in rush yards allowed per game (109.9). This would explain his price drop on DraftKings, and would make me weary of Ward in FanDuel cash games.
That said, Houston’s implied point total is 30.75, which is basically four touchdowns and a field goal. Based on that, Houston being at home and every game other than last week (including a three passing touchdown, 98 rushing yard performance against Louisville), Ward is a great tournament play, and a nice pivot off the other high priced options at quarterback.
Kenneth Farrow’s status is up in the air for this week, as he’s going through concussion protocol. If he does play, he’s a worthy hedge in tournaments if you decide to make lineups. In the previous four weeks, Farrow accumulated eight rushing touchdowns, including three games with multiple scores.
Akrum Wadley – (RB) Iowa – DraftKings: $5,700 / FanDuel: $6,800
Jordan Canzeri is officially out for another week, which puts Wadley first on the Hawkeyes depth chart once again. Based on the 26 carries he received last week against Northwestern, the usage will be similar, in a much easier matchup.
Iowa is a 17 point favorite at home against a struggling, two win Maryland team. Maryland has given up 28 or more points in four straight games. They allowed 45 points against West Virginia and 49 against Ohio State in the two games they’ve played on the road. They come into this game allowing 175.6 rush yards per game (83rd nationally) and have allowed three players to top 100 rushing yards against them.
Iowa has ran the ball on 61.3% percent of its offensive plays in 2015. In games won by ten points or more, their starting running back has averaged 24.5 carries.
Wadley is a great fit in all formats, especially cash games. His volume and production last week is comforting. With the depth chart remaining the same and the high likelihood of them nursing a lead in the second half, he’s a favorite for 20 or more carries.
Mike Warren – (RB) Iowa State – DraftKings: $6,100 / FanDuel: $6,600
Warren continues to impress in his freshman season. Since becoming the clear-cut starter five weeks ago, Warren has accumulated 769 rushing yards. He is the featured player in Iowa State’s offense and they aren’t subtle about it. It’s been tough for them to get in a rhythm in recent weeks, mostly because of their opponents. There simply wasn’t enough firepower to withstand the back-to-back-to-back gauntlet that was Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor.
The good news? They’re at home this week, and against a Texas team that has been highly volatile, and bad on the road. In their two road games this year, Texas has given up 38 and 50 points(To be fair, it was Notre Dame and TCU).
Warren’s play on the field matches his production, and him getting 18 carries or more in each of the last five games secures himself a spot in my cash game lineups. He fits in nicely on both sites. It’s convenient that you don’t have to break the bank for a player featured in an offense.
Kenny Lawler – (WR) California – DraftKings: $5,700 / FanDuel $6,100
After two down weeks in a row, things would appear to be trending in the wrong direction for Lawler. In those two games combined he had 12 receptions for only 98 yards (8.1 per reception) and one touchdown.That’s bad production by anyone’s standards, However, when you take the opponents into account (UCLA and Utah), it all makes sense. Until last week against USC, Utah hadn’t allowed over 24 points. UCLA is only allowing 193 pass yards a game.
Things lighten up this week against a USC team that’s 85th in pass yards allowed per game. The O/U in this game is 69.5 and California has an implied team total of 32.
Lawler leads the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns. He’s had three multi-touchdown games already and has gone over 20 fantasy points in four of seven games. His price point is solid enough that he fits into any lineup, even if you aren’t stacking with Jared Goff.
Thomas Duarte – (WR) UCLA – DraftKings: $5,700 / FanDuel: $7,100
Duarte is one of the more pleasant breakout surprises this year. The 6’3, 225-pound junior has caught a touchdown in four straight games and now leads the team in that category. Duarte’s emergence has coincided with freshman quarterback Josh Rosen getting on track. Rosen has thrown for four of his five highest passing yardage totals in the last four games. He’s thrown over 325 yards and three touchdowns in each of his last two games.
UCLA faces off against Colorado this weekend, a team that is allowing 426 yards of offense per game. UCLA is favored by 23 at home and has an implied team total of 43.
Duarte is a great stacking option with Josh Rosen or even Paul Perkins in cash games. There’s no guarantee on how the production will shake out, but based on usage and vegas, this is a prime opportunity for Duarte to bring his game with a touchdown streak to five.
Troy Fumagalli – (WR/TE) Wisconsin – DraftKings: $3,300 / FanDuel: $3,500
Fumagalli has quickly emerged as a reliable option in the Wisconsin offense. The offense has been losing important players from each week it seems. The latest casualty is Robert Wheelwright, who was second on the team in receptions. Alex Erickson has filled in some of the production lost due to injuries, but behind him, they’ve decided Fumagalli is their best option. He’s caught four or more passes in each of the last three games.
Wisconsin faces off against Rutgers at home this week. They’re 20 point favorites and have an implied team total of 35. Most years a large bulk of that production would be going to the running backs, but as mentioned before, injuries have taken their toll on the run game.
Both Corey Clement and Taiwan Deal have been battling injuries and are questionable. While they should win comfortably either way, Wisconsin will likely need to pass to score based on how they’ve ran the ball so far in 2015. On 300 carries, Wisconsin has 1220 yards, hardly above 4 per carry, and well below FBS averages. They’re ranked 89th in rush yards per game.
Fumagalli is a nice tournament play on DraftKings if you’re trying to fit multiple high priced options into your lineups. He’s not a min-priced play on FanDuel, but he gives you a nicer floor than the lower priced options, and a considerably higher floor.