CFB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown: Week 8

by Jordan Vanek (vanekjordan) Last Updated 2024-10-18 13:07:01 Premium Content Part of the product CFB Premium

Using his experience as a former scout and staff member at Central Florida under Josh Heupel, Jordan Vanek takes an in-depth look at the upcoming CFB DFS main slate on DraftKings. Formerly of The 33rd Team and 4for4 Fantasy Football, Jordan will do a deep dive into the best stacks, running backs, and wide receivers before giving his overall thoughts on some slate strategy.

Week 7 was my first time entering 150 lineups into the main contest, and several of my builds were right in the mix with a legitimate chance to win. However, my biggest oversight was not having exposure to Tyler Warren. Had he posted merely 25 DK points, I would have comfortably taken 1st place by a 13-point margin, but his 50-point explosion was just too much to overcome. The mistake I made was failing to identify how poorly USC defends against slot formations and not realizing how dominant Warren has been for Penn State in those situations.

We learn and move forward, and this week’s slate is a beautiful one. I’ve had this weekend marked down for some time with all the premier matchups on the schedule. None stand out more to me than Alabama vs. Tennessee, a game that I believe is being vastly overlooked, and I’ll have plenty of exposure to it. On top of that, we’ve got three other games with totals of 57+ points, two of which feature close spreads and should be played at a fast pace. This slate isn’t packed with the chalk we’ve seen in recent weeks, and I’m really excited about the player pool and early lineup building using our CFB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ.

If you have any questions about my analysis or the slate overall, feel free to reach out in the RotoGrinders Discord.

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CFB DFS DraftKings Picks: Top Stacks, Running Backs, & Wide Receivers for Week 8

At this point in the season, teams have largely revealed their identity, having shown much of what their offense and defense will look like for the remainder of the year. This section will focus on identifying any glaring mismatches or clear advantages that stand out on the slate. These are the situations you should be aware of when building lineups, as they present obvious opportunities to exploit. Keep an eye on matchups where one team shows a clear weakness or strength, allowing you to take advantage of favorable positions on both sides of the ball.

Single High vs. Two High

Single-high coverage refers to a defensive scheme where one safety is positioned deep in the middle of the field, primarily responsible for defending against deep passes and offering support over the top. This setup leaves cornerbacks in one-on-one matchups with wide receivers, creating opportunities for big plays if the receivers can win those battles. Teams such as Arizona, Notre Dame, Illinois, Colorado, and Missouri frequently use this approach.

For example, Illinois is likely to invite Michigan to run the ball, as they’re accustomed to bringing an extra defender into the box to help stop the run. I expect Illinois to stay in single-high coverage throughout the game, focusing on stopping Michigan’s powerful rushing attack, even if it means putting their corners in vulnerable situations.

In contrast, two-high coverage deploys two safeties deep, each covering one-half of the field. This scheme provides better protection against deep passes but leaves the defense more susceptible to runs or short passes underneath. Teams like Michigan, Rutgers, and Oklahoma often rely on two-high to prevent explosive passing plays.

Rutgers, for example, has stubbornly stuck to its two-high coverage, which has hurt them in stopping the run due to their cautious approach to avoid giving up big plays. This was evident in their matchup against Wisconsin, where they struggled to contain Tawee Walker and then gave up the big play anyway. Regardless, I anticipate a bounce-back week for Rutgers against UCLA, whose offense has been underwhelming, providing an opportunity for the defense to regroup and perform better.

Man vs. Zone

Man coverage is a defensive scheme where each defender is assigned to cover a specific offensive player throughout the play. Teams that heavily rely on man coverage, such as Colorado, often align with single-high safety schemes, where the cornerbacks are left to win their one-on-one battles. Colorado ranks high in both man and single-high coverages, which sets up an exciting matchup between Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan. This battle will likely feature one-on-one matchups without much help over the top. McMillan has the ability to win against Hunter, but it will be up to quarterback Noah Fifita to deliver accurate throws, keeping the ball away from Hunter, who is known for giving up big plays but also making game-changing interceptions.

On the flip side, zone coverage requires defenders to guard specific areas of the field, rather than individual players. Although defenders may find themselves in man-to-man situations when an opponent enters their zone, their responsibilities are dictated by the defensive call. Teams that often employ zone coverage include Michigan, Oklahoma, Louisville, Baylor, and Indiana.

Michigan, under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, has leaned heavily on zone coverages, which is a shift from Martindale’s previous man-heavy tendencies in the NFL. While this adjustment has suited the personnel Michigan has, the defense hasn’t reached the elite level many expected. Against Illinois, Michigan’s zone coverage could be tested by a veteran Illinois offense that’s seen a variety of defensive schemes. With two experienced wide receivers who know how to find soft spots in zone defenses, this could turn into a challenging week for the Michigan secondary, which might struggle to contain the Illini passing attack.

Stacks

Nico Iamaleava ($8,000, QB, Tennessee)

Chris Brazzell II ($3,600, WR, Tennessee)

Germie Bernard ($4,100, WR, Alabama)

Jalen Milroe ($10,500, QB, Alabama)

If you watched the USF game against Alabama earlier in the season, you saw how that offense caused significant trouble for Alabama’s secondary, and the same deep-shot opportunities will be available for Tennessee. According to Sports Info Solutions, 67.2% of passes over 10 yards against Alabama have deserved a catch, yet only 41.3% have been completed. This indicates Alabama is vulnerable to deep passing plays, but teams haven’t fully capitalized. They rank 15th in intended air yards allowed, and Iamaleava’s average target depth is over 10 yards this season, which perfectly matches up with this weakness in Alabama’s defense.

While you can stack Iamaleava with any Tennessee wide receiver, Brazzell is the one who stands out to me due to his ability to win downfield. Brazzell has commanded over a 20% target share on routes 6-9 (deep routes) and boasts an impressive aDOT of 16.2. This makes him an ideal target for those deep shots that Alabama struggles to defend. Tennessee’s primary offensive formation uses slot receivers frequently, which is another formation Alabama has been unable to consistently defend, and Brazzell is a key piece in that attack with the highest target share from those looks.

While a double stack could work, don’t overlook Iamaleava’s rushing potential. In a similar offensive approach, Byrum Brown racked up 100 rushing yards against Alabama, and Iamaleava could see similar opportunities, especially with much of the defensive focus on stopping running back Dylan Sampson. Given that this is one of the weakest Alabama defenses in recent memory and Iamaleava is flying under the radar this weekend, there’s significant upside in targeting this Tennessee offense.

The game environment sets up for a potential 60-70 point total, with Milroe connecting with either Bernard or Ryan Williams likely being key to the outcome. What draws me to Bernard specifically is his price point and the growing chemistry he’s developed with Milroe. Additionally, Tennessee has struggled to defend slot alignments this season, and Bernard has thrived in that role, commanding a high target share from the slot. This mismatch in coverage could allow Bernard to be a significant factor, making him an intriguing value play with strong upside in this high-scoring environment.