CFB Grind Down Early Slate - Week 8 Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-23 18:35:37

Toledo Rockets at Massachusetts Minutemen – O/U 63

Toledo

Toledo checks in with a team total of 38 points as they draw a quality matchup with a UMASS team that is 94th against the pass and 114th against the run. The most interesting play in this one, for me, is clearly Kareem Hunt. He was a top option last year as he ran for 1,600 yards, but he was suspended to start the season and has struggled with injuries since his return. In the three games that he has played, his volume has been up and down and Toledo has very capable backups in Terry Swanson and Damion Jones-Moore. If Toledo is ready to turn him loose for 20 carries then has huge upside at a depressed price point against a terrible run defense. The problem is that I’m not quite sold that Toledo is ready to do that yet so his volume scares me for cash games. I love him as a tournament play, and if we get word that he’s 100% healthy and ready to roll then he’s a great cash game play too. It’s a situation I’d monitor up until lineup lock.

Toledo has evolved into a run first offense so while I don’t mind their QB Philip Ely he doesn’t quite bring the upside I look for in a QB, and also doesn’t provide that dual threat ability I like to target. Toledo does feature two very capable WR in Corey Jones and Alonzo Russell and I don’t mind them as WR3. Jones in particular is cheap on FD and has scored in back to back weeks.

Elite Options – Kareem Hunt (GPP)

Secondary Options – Corey Jones, Alonzo Russell

UMASS

This is a tough spot for UMASS as they were shut down by Kent State, their QB Blake Frohnapfel is a little banged up, and this Toledo defense is the top defense in the MAC. UMASS is a pass first offense so Frohnapfel, Tajae Sharpe, Rodney Mills and sometimes Marken Michel are the names to know. I’d expect Frohnapfel to go but I’d certainly monitor the situation. Given the tough matchup, I’m not very high on the UMASS passing game this week, but they are cheap on DK, especially Rodney Mills. Toledo’s weakness has been the pass as they are 76th in passing yards allowed per game, and Mills $3,400 tag on DK is just too cheap. He’s produced at least 96 receiving yards in each of his past three weeks and is cash and GPP viable on DK. On FD, he’s one of the elite TE options but he’s not cheap.

On FD, I’m looking to spend up at QB, but on DK, Frohnapfel is cheap enough that I don’t mind him as a QB2. He did throw for 438 yards and five TDs in this matchup last year and he’s coming at a discount at sub $6,000. I typically love Tajae Sharpe but he’s not cheap, so he’s a GPP-only guy for me due to the matchup, and I prefer other WR in what I think are better spots.

Elite Options – Rodney Mills

Secondary Options – Blake Frohnapfel (DK), Tajae Sharpe

Penn State Nittany Lions at Maryland Terrapins – O/U 47

Penn State

At this point Christian Hackenberg is just a game manager, and this PSU offense looks like it’s going to be built around their freshman RB, Saquon Barkley. He’s really only been slowed by injuries this year as he has at least 190 rushing yards in each game that he’s topped 20 carries. He’s coming off a very impressive 26 carry 194 rushing performance against a quality Ohio State run defense,and on the season is averaging 8.3 YPC. This week he’ll face Maryland whose run defense is far from quality as they’re allowing 4.6 YPC. I think he’s entirely too cheap on DK, and don’t even mind his number on FD.

The only other play on this PSU offense I’ll have some exposure to is Chris Godwin. This is going to be a run heavy team but when they do pass Godwin has developed into their top target. He’s limited by the offensive system he’s in but on a site like Fanduel where he is just $4,800, you don’t need a ton from him.

Elite Options – Saquon Barkley

Secondary Options – Chris Godwin

Maryland

The one thing Penn State has been able to do this year is play defense as they are 7th against the run and 38th against the pass. Overall Maryland has been a bad offensive team all year long. They did surprisingly put up 28 points on Ohio State as their QB Perry Hills had a huge rushing day. This is a quality Penn State run defense though so I’m not expecting another outing like that and he’s not a good passer so I’m staying away from this entire offense. Brandon Ross is their top back but his volume has been up and down.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans – O/U 62

Indiana

Michigan State has continued to play stellar run defense and Jordan Howard is questionable to play. He is cheap around the industry given his talent level but with the injury concerns as well as the tough matchup, I’m not sure that’s a spot I want to mess with.

Indians is expected to be playing from behind and Michigan State’s pass defense has been their weak link. They’re also coming off of a wild last second victory over their biggest rival in Michigan so I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if they came out a little flat here. That sets up the Indiana passing game as potential GPP plays on DK where they are still very cheap. Nate Sudfeld returned from injury last week and threw for over 450 yards and Indiana actually had three guys top 100 receiving yards, including both Simmie Cobbs and Ricky Jones, who are his top targets at wide receiver. I wouldn’t trust them in a cash game format but all three provide salary cap relief on DK.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nate Sudfeld, Ricky Jones, Simmie Cobbs

Michigan State

Assuming they don’t come out flat, this is a really nice spot for the Spartan offense, as Indiana is bad defense and they have a team total of almost 40 points. They’re especially awful against the pass as they’re allowing 334 passing yards per game, which is 125th in the nation. Although I do worry about the Michigan State offense becoming run heavy, the weak Indiana pass defense makes Connor Cook a solid QB2 option on DK. He’s also attempted 39 passes in each of the past two weeks, which is encouraging. The guy I really like on the Spartans is their top WR, Aaron Burbridge. He’s bounced back from a tough stretch with big games in each of the past two weeks, and has topped 100 receiving yards in five of his seven games this year. He’s clearly Cook’s top option in the passing game and this Indiana secondary has been lit up all year long. Their TE*Josiah Price* returned last game, and Cook loves to target him in the red zone. He’s minimum price on FD and makes for a great punt option at TE.

It was initially thought that Madre London would be back but not it appears he could miss some additional time. I’d continue to monitor this situation but if London remains out then LJ Scott becomes very intriguing, especially on FD, at just $6,200. He has scored two TDs in three straight games and Indiana is allowing 4.8 YPC on the year (90th).

Elite Options – Aaron Burbridge, Josiah Price (FD), LJ Scott (FD – if Madre London is out)

Secondary Options – Connor Cook

Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels – O/U 61

Virginia

This game checks in with a total above 60, which is high for a Virginia game. North Carolina has shown improvement defensively this year, but they’re still not a team I’m scared of as they’ve faced some below average offenses so far this year. Virginia is certainly no offensive juggernaut but they’ve been better than they have in the past. I’m not very interested in their QB Matt Johns, but Canaan Severin and Taquan Mizzell do peak my interest. Severin has scored a TD in three of his past four games, and also put together a big game against Notre Dame earlier this year. On paper UNC is a top 10 pass defense but in reality the “best” passing offense they’ve faced is Illinois. He’s getting a solid amount of love around the industry, and our own DB730 even made him his “Master Lock” of the week. In a game that Virginia should be playing from behind he makes for a quality cheap WR3 option.

The guy who I think will fly under the radar is Taquan Mizzell and I really like him as a tournament option on a full PPR site like DK. He’s actually been a better receiver than runner this year so his volume in the running game has been sporadic, which is why I don’t like him as a cash game play. However, he’s a former five star recruit and has been very good in the receiving game out of the backfield. He has at least five receptions in four of his six games and had 10 receptions last week, and those really add up on a full PPR site like DK. He’s topped 30 DK points in three of his six games and North Carolina is allowing over 200 rushing YPG. If he’s able to take advantage of their weak run defense combined with his work in the passing game, we could be looking at another 30 DK point performance.

Elite Options – Canaan Severin, Taquan Mizzell (GPP)

Secondary Options – None

UNC

For some reason Marquise Williams has been a slow starter each of the past two seasons, but just like last year, he’s really starting to get going. He’s produced big fantasy outings in three of his last four games and draws a solid matchup with a Virginia defense that has struggled this season. The biggest drawback to Marquise is his price point as I prefer a guy like Baker Mayfield, but he’s a guy that makes for a solid GPP option due to his dual threat ability and UNC’s 39 point team total.

It’s very difficult to nail down a UNC WR to target as they seem to alternate big games. Last week, Mack Hollins went bonkers, and he provides some big play upside, but limited volume. Ryan Switzer has been quiet of late so maybe UNC looks to get him back involved, but overall these are just very risky GPP dart throws, although Virginia is 90th in passing yards allowed.

Elijah Hood has now scored in four of his past five games, and is still cheap around the industry, especially on FD. I really like him as a RB in terms of talent and the only thing I don’t like is his volume – which is somewhat concerning as he typically stays in that 12 to 15 range.

Elite Options – Marquise Williams

Secondary Options – Elijah Hood

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies – O/U 43

Duke

This game checks in with the lowest total on the slate at just 43 points so this is a game that you can largely avoid. The Duke offense has really struggled of late and they have a team total of just 20 points. It looks like they are back to a RBBC so I’ll pass on their run game. Virginia Tech has been a quality passing defense and Duke doesn’t have a true number one WR, so I’ll pass there as well.

Thomas Sirk has been awful over the past four weeks and is likely off of everyone’s radar. He should be for cash games as I have zero interest with him there, but for a cheap low dollar large field tournament I don’t mind him as a QB2. He gets a ton of work in the running game and Virginia Tech’s run defense has been unusually bad this year as they’re allowing 4.7 YPC and are 82nd in rushing yards allowed per game. In particular they’ve struggled against running QBs at times this year as the Ohio State QBs combined to run for 139 yards and ECU QB James Summers ran for 169 yards and two TDs. Given those struggles, maybe Sirk can get it going on the ground and pay off his cheap tag.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Thomas Sirk (DK- GPP)

Virginia Tech

Michael Brewer is back from injury and will draw the start on Saturday. He’s cheap but he doesn’t get a ton of passing volume, and when I take a cheap QB, I like to take a guy who can run, which Brewer doesn’t provide. Duke also ranks number one in passing yards allowed per game, although that ranking is inflated due to them facing a ton of run first offenses. The return of Brewer should help the Hokies’ passing game, and Isaiah Ford has been really good all year and already has seven receiving TDs. He’s cheap on DK and I do think this Duke passing defense is overrated so I don’t mind him there. I think the return of Brewer could help Bucky Hodges the most, and he’s another minimum priced TE option on FD.

Duke has plowed stout run defense as they’re allowing just 3.0 YPC and while Travon McMillian has been solid of late, I’ll pass on him here.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Isaiah Ford, Bucky Hodges (FD)

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