CFB Grind Down Early Slate - Week 8

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-25 17:00:39

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Houston Cougars at UCF Knights – O/U 57

Houston

The Cougars check in with one of the higher team totals on the day at almost 40 points, and their offense has been a machine under new coach Tom Herman. UH should be able to do whatever it wants against a terrible 0-7 UCF team that somehow allowed 40 points to two very bad offenses in Tulane and UCONN. Greg Ward, Jr. is the primary option and he’s involved heavily in all of the Cougar’s success. He’s absolutely dynamic in the running game as has 12 rushing TDs over his last four games, and can also hit some big plays in the passing game when needed. I’ll give the slight edge to Seth Russell as the top QB on the high end, but Ward is right there with him and is a top-three option for me.

Kenneth Farrow has only topped 20 carries one time this season, so he’s a guy that will need to get into the end zone as he doesn’t bring much volume to the table. The problem is that Ward is more than willing to call his own number in the red zone. I don’t hate the play due to the Cougars’ high team total, but I think there are safer options so I’d classify him as a GPP only play. Demarcus Ayers is the Cougars top WR option, and while I wouldn’t pay his tag on FD, his $6,200 price tag on DK is more than fair. I know UCF hasn’t allowed any big games to opposing WR of late, but that doesn’t really worry me as looking at their schedule they haven’t faced a QB who can throw a lick. What does worry me is that Houston is favored by three TDs and UCF has been awful so I do worry about volume in the 2nd half for Ayers. Overall he’s a guy I’ll get some GPP exposure to on DK, but nothing crazy. Outside of their big three, a guy like Chance Allen can have a solid game every now and again, but he’s not really on my radar.

Elite Options – Greg Ward, Jr

Secondary Options – Kenneth Farrow, Demarcus Ayers

UCF

Houston has been a solid defensive team this year and UCF has only topped 16 points one time all season. Vegas has them pegged for just 17 points and there are questions as to who exactly is healthy at RB. They did get their starting QB Justin Holman back from injury, but I don’t like his situation at WR. Overall there just isn’t much upside here and I’ll pass on this entire offense.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Clemson Tigers at Miami (FL) Hurricanes – O/U 55

Clemson

Clemson will head on the road and look to remain undefeated in a game that is expected to be close. Miami has been below average against the pass (84th) as well as the run (86th ) so Clemson should have a solid offensive game here. What really jumps off the page to me here is Miami is allowing 5.6 YPC on the season. While most of the attention will deservedly go to Deshaun Watson that makes Wayne Gallman a very sneak GPP play at a very affordable price tag. He was shut down last weekend by a very stout Boston College rush defense, but ran for over 100 yards in each of his previous three games.

We’ve been waiting for that big Deshaun Watson game and he finally came through last weekend in a tough matchup. This is by no means a bad matchup but his big game last weekend caused a price jump on FD and at his price point I prefer other QBs. He’s still $8,000 on DK so if you’re looking to get exposure to him that is where I would look as his price will probably be on the rise soon. His top WR Artavis Scott will be heading home to Florida in this one and benefited from Watson’s big game last weekend. He’s not at the top of my board but he’s a solid option in that middle tier of WR. Scott has been the only consistent WR for the Tigers, but Jordan Leggett has stepped up at TE and has a TD in four straight games. If you’re spending at TE on FD or FA, he’s one of the best options on the board, but I personally prefer the minimum priced TEs on FD.

Elite Options – Wayne Gallman (GPP), Deshaun Watson (DK)

Secondary Options – Artavis Scott, Jordan Leggett

Miami

In year’s past you could sometimes pick on the Clemson defense, but they were terrific last year and rank in the top 25 against both the pass and the run this year. Based on that I’m not overly high on the Miami offense this week. Brad Kaaya has played much better of late and has thrown for at least 296 yards in three of his past four games. DK is giving us a discount on him at just $5,800 so while I don’t love it, that price is cheap enough to get a little bit of my attention. The Hurricanes top WR has been Rashawn Scott but Stacy Coley and Herb Waters are talented as well so Kaaya does have solid weapons. Clemson does feature possibly the top CB in the ACC in Mackensie Alexander and based on this week’s press conference it sounds like he could end up on Coley or Waters. I’ll likely just avoid this situation but based on that I’d lean towards Scott as I’d like to avoid Alexander.

Miami also has a solid RB in Joseph Yearby but the Tigers are allowing just 3.1 YPC so I’ll wait for a better spot to roster Yearby.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brad Kaaya (DK)

Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks – O/U 51

Auburn

The Auburn QB situation has been a disaster and they’ve turned to Sean White who has just been a game manager so he offers very little upside. That offensive approach has turned Peyton Barber into a volume monster though as he is averaging 27 carries per game in his last three games and has seven TDs in his last two games. Those seven TDs are inflated though due to a five TD game against San Jose State. Arkansas has fielded a solid rush defense this year as they’re allowing just 3.5 YPC, are 14th in rushing yards allowed per game, and held Derrick Henry in check. I don’t mind Barber but I think they are better options than him this week.

The only other Auburn player I’m giving a look is Ricardo Louis. Arkansas is 92nd in passing yards allowed per game and have coughed up some big passing plays this year. Big plays are what Louis brings to the table and he’s seen a usage boost with Duke Williams’ dismissal. He’s limited by his poor QB play so he’d be a GPP play but he is coming off his best game of the year with 147 receiving yards, and he’s affordable. He’s the guy I’d be most likely to use from Auburn.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Peyton Barber, Ricardo Louis

Arkansas

I like this matchup for the Arkansas run game and like Alex Collins a lot in this slate, especially on FD and FA. On DK, he doesn’t provide any receptions and there are some mid-range backs I like so I’m not as likely to pay for him there. He’s coming off of a brutal game against Alabama, but that Alabama run defense is ridiculously good so I’m just throwing that game out. What I am interested in is his previous three games that saw him average 27 carries per game and rush for at least 150 yards in each. Gus Malzahn and Bret Bielema do not like each other at all, and this is a great opportunity for Bielema to really shove the ball down Auburn’s throat. Auburn comes into this one getting crushed on the ground as they’re allowing 5.5 YPC and 205 rushing YPG. Collins is one of the safest cash games plays on the board as I’m expecting another 150 yard outing with one or two TDs.

I’m never a fan of Arkansas QB, Brandon Allen, as this is a run first offense so he’s off the board for me. Auburn has been better against the pass than the run, but looking at their schedule they haven’t faced a pass first team yet. Arkansas is certainly not going to be a pass first team but if you need a cheap WR3 on DK then Drew Morgan is a solid option. I’d prefer a guy like River Cracraft at the same price point on FD, but on DK Morgan is just $4,600 and has scored a TD in three of his last four games. Arkansas is very thin a WR due to injuries so Morgan has stepped into the number one role. On sites where a TE is required Hunter Henry is always a solid option. This week he’s more of a GPP play for me on FD though as there are some minimum price TE plays that open up the salary cap.

Elite Options – Alex Collins

Secondary Options – Drew Morgan, Hunter Henry

Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears – O/U 79

Iowa State

This game checks in with the highest total on the slate at 79 points, but it sounds like there could be heavy rain and flooding heading towards Waco, so we are going to have check in with Kevin Roth Saturday morning. The weather impacts the viability of Iowa State QB Sam B. Richardson as I don’t mind him as punt QB2 play if the rain holds off. He’s been awful lately, but he’s expected to draw another start and should be playing from behind against a Baylor team that is 95th in passing yards allowed per game. He produced 311 total yards and three TDs in this matchup last year, and could also see some time against the Baylor reserve defense if Vegas is correct about this spread. He’ll spread the ball around to his WRs so they can be volatile, but my top option would be Allen Lazard, who is coming off of a big game and is their most talented WR. However, I don’t love his price tag.

Mike Warren has come out of nowhere to run for at least 126 yards in three of his past four games, including two games over 175 rushing yards. Iowa State likely getting blasted does worry me somewhat as far as his volume goes, and Baylor is allowing just 3.2 YPC on the season. However, they haven’t faced a quality running team so I do think the jury is still out as to their running defense. He’s a solid option but I personally prefer a guy like Saquon Barkley at a similar price point. Baylor’s top DT Andrew Billings is questionable for this one and if he’s out then that’s a big boost to Warren’s stock.

UPDATE – It sounds like Allen Lazard will be out so don’t play him and it sounds like the weather could be really nasty.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Sam B. Richardson, Mike Warren

2. Baylor

Baylor once again has a team total approaching 60 and based on the way Seth Russell and Corey Coleman have been playing, Iowa State is likely praying for Mother Nature to bring it hard on Saturday. There’s not a whole lot to be said about Russell or Coleman other than they’ve been unreal. Russell is averaging over five total TDs per game, and Corey Coleman has a ridiculous 16 TD receptions on the year already. Assuming the weather holds off, they’re the top options at their positions if price isn’t a factor. FanDuel finally got around to bumping up Coleman so the Coleman/Russell stack is much tougher to build around this week. Given their price tags I don’t think the handcuff is a must for cash games, but I’d certainly get exposure to these two this weekend as Iowa State was shredded by TCU and is 121st in passing yards allowed per game. Outside of Coleman, the Baylor WR can be unpredictable and both KD Cannon and Jay Lee’s volume hasn’t been great, especially in blow outs. They both bring that big play potential to the table but they’re too volatile for cash games, and out of the two Lee has been the better performer on the season.

Iowa State also hasn’t been very good against the run as they’re allowing 4.9 YPC so the Baylor run game should roll once again. Shock Linwood should be able to run wild on this defense, especially if the weather is bad and Baylor leans on the running game. He’s a top five RB option on this slate. Given the spread here, we should see the Baylor backup RBs get involved but the problem is that Devin Chafin should be working his way back in and I’m not sure how Baylor will split up the backup duties as Johnny Jefferson has run well this year.

Elite Options – Seth Russell, Corey Coleman, Shock Linwood

Secondary Options – Jay Lee, K.D. Cannon, Johnny Jefferson/Devin Chafin

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers – O/U 51

Northwestern

Nebraska is 126th in passing yards allowed per game and somehow allowed Mitch Leidner to throw for 300 yards last week. They’re a sieve against the pass, but the problem is that this Northwestern passing game has been absolutely brutal so it’s really tough to take advantage here, as Clayton Thorson has topped 200 passing yards only one time this year. He’s dirt cheap on DK so you could take a flier in a low-dollar tournament and load up elsewhere, but it’s definitely not something I feel is safe.

Northwestern has been pasted the past two weeks so they’ve had to abandon the run game, and they’ve faced two brutal running matchups with Iowa and Michigan who are elite run defenses. Those struggles have resulted in Justin Jackson being very cheap around the industry, especially on FD. Nebraska hasn’t been a pushover against the run either as they’re allowing just 3.2 YPC so this isn’t a great matchup, but it’s better than the previous two weeks. He saw huge volume at the beginning of the year and I’m expecting him to get back to that type of usage this weekend. At his cheap price point, he provides a lot of volume safety for cash games.

Elite Options – Justin Jackson

Secondary Options – Dan Vitale, Clayton Thorson

Nebraska

Nebraska put up 48 points against a solid Minnesota defense which definitely surprised me, and they do have a team total of 30 points, which is also higher than I expected. Northwestern played great defense to start the year, but has oddly struggled over the past few weeks, particularly against the run as they’re allowing 4.5 YPC. Nebraska RB Terrell Newby busted out with a big game out of the blue last weekend, and has been incredibly boom and bust the entire year. He’s too volatile for my liking but is probably a 1% owned guy in tournaments.

At first glance, this looks like a complete stay away for the Nebraska passing game as Northwestern checks in with a top 10 passing defense, and there’s no way I’d pay Tommy Armstrong’s price on FD. However, looking at who they’ve faced there is really not a single offense that I would categorize as even an average passing offense. DK is giving a solid price discount on Armstrong and finding a cheaper QB2 option on DK is pretty tough this week as there aren’t any great standout matchups. He’s been seeing around 40 combined passing and rushing attempts per week and has topped 19 DK points in every game but one. Given Nebraska’s 30 point team total I think he’s in the discussion as a QB2 on DK. I’ll stay away from the Nebraska WR here as they’re starting to spread the ball around a little bit over the past few weeks.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Tommy Armstrong (DK), Terrell Newby (GPP)

Jump to Page 1 2 3 4