CFB Grind Down Early Slate - Week 8 Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-23 19:24:42

Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide – O/U 54

Tennessee

The Volunteers head on the road to face an Alabama defense that is playing lights out, and is just loaded top to bottom with talent. I typically just fade teams playing Alabama as there’s just not a ton of upside, and I’ll be taking that approach again this week. The only potential play is on DK where they’ve discounted Joshua Dobbs at $6,700. He ‘s talented for sure, and lit up the UGA defense two weeks ago and also had a solid day against Florida. If you want to take a shot in a tournament, I don’t mind it due to his running upside, but I’d prefer Connor Cook’s matchup as I really don’t want to mess with this Alabama defense.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Joshua Dobbs (DK)

Alabama

Derrick Henry ran wild last weekend and has scored a TD in every game this season. Tennessee is allowing 4.5 YPC on the season, and most of the high-priced RBs are playing on the late slate. I’m probably not paying for him on DK, but he’s very safe and likely to go for 150 yards and a TD once again, so he’s a premier cash game play at RB if you’re spending.

UPDATE – One note I forgot to mention is the status of Alabama’s center Ryan Kelly. He left the A&M game with a concussion and their running game really suffered as he left. He’s in concussion protocol and if he sits it’s a downgrade for Henry.

Calvin Ridley has emerged as the Tide’s top wide receiver and it looks like Lane Kiffen is starting to try to scheme the ball into his hand more. His price is really on the rise, though, so he’s a guy I’d target only in tournaments as this offense will revolve around Henry.

Elite Options – Derrick Henry

Secondary Options – Calvin Ridley

Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini – O/U 45

Wisconsin

The word “cluster” comes to mind when discussing the Badgers RB situation last weekend. Corey Clement dressed out and at one time was thought to even get the start, but he eventually didn’t even play. This is setting up as another situation where we are going to have be in front of the computer on Saturday monitoring whether Clement plays. Taiwan Deal is out so if Clement sits then Dare Ogunbowale will see 20 touches. He wasn’t great last weekend, but he’s contributed in the passing game and had 20 DK points last weekend, which is just fine at his salary for cash games. If Clement does play then he’s cheap around the industry, especially on DK where he’s incredibly cheap at $4,200. If he does play, he’s a guy I’d look to get exposure to in tournaments as Illinois was crushed by the Iowa running game two weeks ago.

The Wisconsin passing game is typically one to avoid but Joel Stave has curiously attempted at least 38 passes in each of their past three games. That’s not enough to get me on board the Stave train, especially with the potential return of Clement, but I don’t mind Alex Erickson on DK or Troy Fumagalli on FD. Erickson has been racking up the receptions this season and on a full PPR site like DK he provides solid value at only $4,600. Fumagalli has 10 total receptions in the past two weeks as he’s stepped into the starting TE role. He’s another TE who is minimum price on FD.

Elite Options – Corey Clement/Dare Ogunbowale (check their status Saturday morning), Alex Erickson (DK)

Secondary Options – Troy Fumagalli (FD)

Illinois

Illinois draws a tough matchup with a Wisconsin defense that is top 15 against both the pass and the run. They’ll also be without Josh Ferguson and have a team total below 20, so this looks like a spot to just fade the entire offense.

The one possible exception is Geronimo Allison on DK where he is just $5,300. He’s getting a ton of volume in the Illini passing game and has at least 8 receptions in each of his past three games, which included a solid day against a quality Iowa defense.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Geronimo Allison (DK)

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners – O/U 74

Texas Tech

This should be one of the more entertaining games on the day and has a total of 74 points. Texas Tech let me down last weekend as they underperformed against Kansas and their team total of 30 points isn’t particularly high for them this year. For that reason I’m really just focusing on Patrick Mahomes and Jakeem Grant as I don’t like the matchup for DeAndre Washington and the secondary Tech WR are just too tough to predict. Mahomes put up his first sub-par performance last weekend, but has otherwise been terrific all year long. The Oklahoma defense has been up and down this year, and Mahomes had 63 combined passing and rushing attempts last weekend which is insane volume. OU hasn’t played the pass happy Big 12 teams yet so I’d expect to see their passing defense rank fall as the year goes on.

At WR, Jakeem Grant is the top option for Tech and has been their one consistent performer all year long. This game has the potential to turn into a shootout and his price doesn’t break the bank so he’s a top 10 option at WR on this slate.

Elite Options – Patrick Mahomes, Jakeem Grant

Secondary Options – None

Oklahoma

We get the rare revenge game in CFB as Baker Mayfield will face his former team for the first time. There’s not a lot of love lost between Mayfield and Kliff Kingsbury and I’d expect Mayfield to be really amped up for this one. While I like the revenge game angle, the bigger angle is that this Tech defense stinks. They are 111th in passing yards allowed per game and 122nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Their defense was steamrolled by both TCU and Baylor, and this OU offense should be in for a big day. Overall, I love this spot for Mayfield and have right there in the group with Seth Russell and Greg Ward, Jr.

His top target at WR is Sterling Shephard, whose production has been up and down this year. However that volatility has resulted in an affordable price point and he had two TDs last weekend. This is a great spot against the weak Tech secondary and he’s a guy who deserves heavy consideration. Dede Westbrook has been the second option and is having a solid season for the Sooners so he could be worth a look, although I don’t love his price point. Continuing the minimum priced TE parade on FD is Mark Andrews. He doesn’t get a ton of volume but is a big play threat at TE and has TDs in three of his last four games.

One of the tougher questions on the day is what to do with the OU running game as Tech is awful against the run and allows 5.6 YPC. A year ago the amount of Samaje Perine exposure I’d have would be roughly 100%. However, this isn’t last year and this is a completely different OU offense that Perine has really struggled to transition to. Both his volume and production are way down, and he also has to contend with Joe Mixon. I don’t mind taking a GPP shot with him as he is cheap and should have a multi-TD game at some point this season, but the fact is his circumstances are very different from what they were last year.

Elite Options – Baker Mayfield, Sterling Shephard, Mark Andrews (FD)

Secondary Options – Samaje Perine (GPP), Joe Mixon, Dede Westbrook

Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma State Cowboys – O/U 61

Kansas

This is Last week was an offensive explosion for the Jayhawks as they were able to muster up 20 points against the aforementioned terrible Texas Tech defense. Given that they only put up 20 points against Tech as well as their 13 point team total, I’d stay far away from this Kansas offense.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Oklahoma State

This is a tough spot as the Cowboys have a team total of 47 points and will be able to do whatever they want to against a terrible KU defense that is 120th against the pass and 123rd against the run. The problem is that this OSU offense is really annoying as they don’t have a number one option at WR, and haven’t given any one RB a ton of volume. Even at QB, they’ll bring in JW Walsh inside the five so he’ll vulture TD from Mason Rudolph and the RBs.

I’d expect Chris Carson to get another start at RB but his productivity hasn’t been great and he’ll split carries with Rennie Childs. However, he is very cheap on FD so I don’t mind taking a GPP shot with him as Kansas is allowing 5.7 YPC and supposedly the focus of OSU’s bye week was improving their running game.

At WR, David Glidden has been their “leading” WR, but just hasn’t shown much upside. Brandon Shephard was thought to be the top guy coming into the year, and has really disappointed. However, he’s minimum price on FD so maybe Kansas’ terrible defense will help him rediscover last year’s form. It’s a play I’d only make in GPPs though.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Chris Carson, Brandon Shephard/David Glidden, Mason Rudolph

Washington State Cougars at Arizona Wildcats – O/U 72

Washington State

This game is one of the few games that features a total above 70 so it’s one to target. The Washington State RBS can be largely ignored, although Jamal Morrow or Gerard Wicks sometimes make some noise in the passing game. This offense really centers on Luke Falk and his three WRs Gabe Marks, River Cracraft, and Dom Williams.

After a somewhat slow start to the year, Falk has really picked it up and has this Washington State passing attack rolling with 11 passing TDs over his last two games. Arizona has struggled against the pass this year as they are 78th in passing yards allowed per game. Given that fact as well as the high total and his volume in the passing game, Falk is a weekly top option at QB, although I’m leaning more towards some of the dual threat guys this week.

It’s hard to go wrong with any of the Washington State big three wide receivers and I’d sprinkle them into your lineups. Marks has been the top guy so he’d be my first choice of the three, but he’s also the most expensive. Cracraft’s price is way down around the industry so he’s a solid value to get some cheap exposure to the Cougars, although it does seem that he may not have the connection with Falk that he did with Connor Halliday.

Elite Options – Luke Falk, Gabe Marks, River Cracraft, Dom Williams

Secondary Options – None

Arizona

This is another tricky situation as the Wildcats have a team total of 40 points but also have a ton of question marks. Initially, I wanted to jump all over Anu Solomon’s price point but he was pulled last week for Jerrard Randall and Rich Rodriguez hasn’t publicly committed to Solomon yet. That makes him a very tough roster in anything but a low dollar GPP, although the matchup is certainly there. If we do get word that one is the guy then he become in play for all formats, but this could be a game where both get some playing time. At WR, Arizona is similar to UNC in that there’s just no telling who is going step up with a big game. Given the matchup with Washington State’s poor defense one of these Arizona WR probably comes through with a big day, but it’s a dart throw. If I’m throwing darts it’d be Cayleb Jones or Nate Phillips.

Hopefully, we can get some clarity on Nick Wilson’s status as the Cougars are allowing 5.0 YPC on the season and are 98th in rushing yards allowed per game. If Wilson is healthy and ready to go then he’s a guy that deserves strong consideration. However, if he sits then Jared Baker is the guy that comes into play. He stepped in for Wilson last week with 200 rushing yards. On a site like FD, we likely won’t know Wilson’s status so both are just GPP plays. On a late swap site like DK, you could put in Wilson, and then swap to either Jared Baker or even Gabe Marks, if Wilson doesn’t go.

Elite Options – Nick Wilson/Jared Baker

Secondary Options – Anu Solomon/Jerrard Randall, Cayleb Jones/Nate Phillips

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