CFB Grind Down: Saturday

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-12-20 22:43:08

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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Arizona Wildcats at New Mexico Lobos – O/U 65

Arizona

On paper this sets up as an elite matchup for Arizona as they check in with a team total of around 37 points, and should have a talent advantage over New Mexico. The question is how motivated Arizona is for this game, which can be an issue in bowl games for some teams like Arizona that have had disappointing seasons.

Assuming that Arizona is properly motivated this sets up as a plus matchup for both their running and passing game as New Mexico has been very poor against both the run and the pass. Anu Solomon missed the last game with a concussion, but is expected to play in this one and has been taking first string QB reps. I am keeping an eye on news regarding backup QB, Brandon Dawkins, who opened some eyes against Arizona State, but Solomon looks to be the guy for this one. He is very cheap across all the sites, and given that Arizona has the highest team total on this slate, I think he’s a great value if you need some savings at QB. I seem to be in the minority on Solomon so he should make for a low owned GPP play, and there is always the concern that they have a goalline package for one of their running backup QBs. He also provides the only safe target in the Arizona passing game as their wide receivers are very tough to predict. I’d lean towards Cayleb Jones, but he’s a GPP only option as Arizona will also spread the ball around to Johnny Jackson, Nate Phillips, David Richards, and even Samaje Grant.

Their RB situation is more clear as Nick Wilson is expected to miss the bowl game. Jared Baker will shoulder the load against a run defense that allows 4.8 YPC (92nd) and 209 rushing yards per game. His volume was way down against Arizona State as the Arizona backup QBs are both runners so they called their own number early and often. With Anu Solomon back in at QB, his volume should be safer and he makes for one of the top value plays at RB.

Elite Options – Jared Baker (RB), Anu Solomon (QB)

Secondary Options – Arizona WRs (Cayleb Jones is my preference)

New Mexico

New Mexico is an option team that only has 1,579 passing yards on the season so I’d cross their passing game off the list, despite the fact that Arizona’s secondary has been very poor. Lamar Jordan does provide some running ability at QB, but his passing floor and ceiling is very low and QB is fairly deep so he’s not a guy on my list. Their offense really boils down to their two RBs Jhurrell Presley (135/846/11) and Teriyon Gipson (132/766/6). Both are very volatile options as their volume can fluctuate from week to week so they are much more suited to GPP options. I don’t think either is a must but both are cheap if you’re looking for a Flex option like DK. Of the two, Presley has shown more upside and has six TDs in his last three games. The Arizona run defense hasn’t been spectacular as they’re allowing 4.7 YPC and 199 YPG so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one or both rip off a long TD run. The one downside is that while Arizona hasn’t seen much option, they have had a few weeks to break down film and practice for the UNM offense, and are expected to get top LB Scooby Wright back.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Jhurrell Presley (RB), Teriyon Gipson (RB)

Brigham Young Cougars at Utah Utes – O/U 50.5

BYU

This game checks in with the lowest total on the slate as both teams play quality defense and really don’t like each other. This rivalry is known as the Holy War and the trash talking has already started between the teams, so this is a bowl game where we don’t have to worry about motivation. This will also be Bronco Mendenhall’s final game as head coach of BYU so there is plenty of motivation. BYU is a pass first offense, but their RB Algernon Brown has scored nine TDs in his last six games, with a TD in each game. However, his volume is fairly volatile and this is an elite Utah run defense (top 10 in YPC and YPG) so I’ll be staying away. The way to beat this Utah defense has been through the air as they’re allowing 253 YPG. Their QB Tanner Mangum has a big arm, but has been up and down this season. I’m unlikely to pay his price on FD, but he is cheap on DK and my guess is that he will be low owned as Anu Solomon, Nick Arbuckle and Kenny Potter will all draw consideration as cheap QBs on DK.

My preferred play on the BYU offense would be their leading WR Mitch Mathews. He’s a big target at 6’6, which has translated to 11 receiving TDs on the season. This isn’t an overly deep slate at WR so Mathews is a guy I’ll work into some of my lineups. On FD, if you’re not spending up for the top two TEs then Terenn Houk is the third best TE on this slate.

Elite Options – Mitch Mathews (WR)

Secondary Options – Tanner Mangum (QB – DK GPP), Terenn Houk (TE)

Utah

Utah suffered a big late season loss as their star RB Devonatae Booker was lost for the season. He was the focal point of their offense and regularly had 30 touches per game. However, Utah just plugged in Joseph Williams and kept right on going. In his two starts, he racked up 26 and 34 carries as he topped 100 yards in each contest. This matchup is not ideal as BYU has played solid run defense this season. They did cough up two big games to Paul Perkins (26/219/1) and De’Veon Smith (16/125/1) and there is something to be said for Williams’ volume. On a site like FD, he’s just too cheap at $6,000 so he’s an elite option. He’s priced appropriately on DK so he’s in play but not a must play or anything like that.

Utah is a run first team so their passing game isn’t overly attractive. This BYU secondary has been poor at times this season, but Utah seems content to throw the ball just around 25 times per game. The other problem is that their top two WRs Britain Covey and Kenneth Scott are both questionable for this one so you’ll have to monitor whether they suit up or not. While their QB Travis Wilson doesn’t offer big passing upside, he is very athletic and a threat running the ball. With Booker out for the year, he averaged over 15 carries per game in his last two games, so there is some running upside with him. However, he’d be a large field GPP only option though as there are several QB in nice spots on this slate.

Elite Options – Joe Williams (RB – FD)

Secondary Options – Travis Wilson (QB)

Ohio Bobcats at Appalachian State Mountaineers – O/U 55

Ohio

Ohio is 7.5 point underdogs and checks in with a pedestrian total of 24 points. Ohio’s RB situation is a bit of a mess as both Daz’mond Patterson and Papi White are expected back, which calls into question the volume for A. J. Oullette. His volume has been up and down all year so there are much safer options on the board and Appalachian State’s run defense has been solid. White was a factor in the receiving game earlier this year as he’s 4th on the team in receiving yards, but didn’t get a ton of usage running the ball.

Their QB situation is equally murky as J. D. Sprague will draw the start but Derrius Vick is also healthy. It was mentioned in the bowl presser that we could see as many as 3 Ohio QBs in this one so this is a situation I’ll be avoiding. If you’re looking to get a piece of Ohio, the safest bets look to be their WR Sebastian Smith (61/752/7) and Jordan Reid (45/616/5). Smith has the better numbers on the year, but Reid put up good numbers with Sprague under center the last two games with 9 receptions for 178 yards and three TDs.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Jordan Reid (WR), Sebastian Smith (WR)

Appalachian State

Appalachian State checks in as 7.5 point favorites with a team total sitting around 31 points. They are a run first team that averages 5.7 YPC (6th) and 260 YPG (6th) but only 192 passing yards (97th). Based on that their QB Taylor Lamb is a secondary option at best for me as he typically is under 25 pass attempts per game. He has had a knack for finding the endzone though, as despite his limited volume, he’s thrown at least two TD passes in all but two games. They don’t necessarily have a go to WR as no WR has topped 500 yards of receiving on the season. Simms McElfresh (33/424/6) has a great name and would be the guy to target if you’re looking at their passing game.

I’m much more interested in their running game as this could be a sneaky good matchup for them. In terms of rush yards allowed per game, Ohio has been decent as they’re allowing 157 YPG (52nd). However, they’ve faced the 7th fewest rushing attempts in the nation and when you look at YPC, they are allowing 5.0 YPC, which is 100th in the country. As mentioned Appalachian State is a run heavy team and Vegas is telling us they should be leading so this profiles as a game where Ohio will have to face plenty of rushing attempts. In fact in their four losses they coughed up 13 combined rushing TDs to Minnesota (36/204/3), Western Michigan (44/430/4), Buffalo (34/161/3) and Bowling Green (30/182/3). That sets up nicely for Marcus Cox, who has run for 1,200 yards this season. He did get a little banged up in his last game so I’d check his health to make sure he’s good to go. His backup Jalin Moore was very effective down the stretch and seems to have carved out a solid role as the secondary back.

Elite Options – Marcus Cox

Secondary Options – Taylor Lamb, Simms McElfresh, Jalin Moore

San Jose State Spartans at Georgia State Panthers – O/U 56

San Jose State

Both QBs in this game are oddly very expensive on FD, but dirt cheap on DK, so that is primarily where I’m looking to play Kenny Potter. He’s been rock solid since taking over as starting QB and offers solid dual threat ability with 19 rushing attempts in two of his last three games. He’s improved as the season has gone on and has at least 28 FD points in each of his last three games. This Georgia State defense is nothing to write home about as they are 72nd against both the run and the pass so Potter should be able to damage with his arm and legs.

The emergence of Potter has thrown a wrench into Tyler Ervin’s production. He was one of the most productive backs in the nation early this season and received heavy volume in the both running and passing game. It’s possible that he wore down due to his heavy volume so maybe the bowl layoff served him well. I like Kenneth Dixon as my top RB option but he’s right there with Marcus Cox as next in line if you’re spending at the position and has flashed big upside at times this season.

San Jose State features a fairly balanced attack as they are 58th in rushing offense and 65th in passing offense. There are other passing attacks I’d prefer to target but Billy Freeman and Tim Crawley are the names to know. In particular, Freeman is one of the top option at TE on FD. He offers a $1,000 savings from Rucker and is the top option in the SJSU passing attack. Crawley has been hot down the stretch with all five of his receiving Tds coming in the final month of the year.

Elite Options – Kenny Potter (QB-DK), Billy Freeman (TE), Tyler Ervin (RB)

Secondary Options – Kenny Potter (QB-FD), Tim Crawley (WR)

Georgia State

This is one of the more interesting matchups on the day as the 8th ranked Georgia State passing attack will face the 4th ranked San Jose State passing defense. It’s tough to know how legit that San Jose State pass defense is as they’ve faced the 2nd fewest passing attempts in the nation. They’ve faced primarily run first teams, and their run defense has been awful so there’s been no real need to throw against them. Georgia State is the 122nd ranked rushing offense so they have no real desire to run so this will be a significant test for the SJSU secondary. They could prove to be an elite passing defense but I’d lean towards their stats being inflated due to the factors outlined above.

I’m not sure I’d pay Nick Arbuckle’s tag on FD, but on DK he’s very cheap. He has four rock solid receiving options to throw to and gets heavy volume in the passing game. He’s thrown for at least 300 yards in all but two games this season and is hard to ignore at just $5,900 on DK. His top weapon has been Penny Hart (71/1095/8), but *Robert Davis (60/979/6) and Donovan Harden (35/662/4) also see some looks. Davis provides a nice discount from Hart on FD, while Harden was actually Georgia State’s leading WR last season but has struggled with injuries and the emergence of Hart this season. They also feature one of the better TE in the country in Keith Rucker (39/522/6). He won’t come cheap on FD, but he offers big upside at a weak position.

Their top RB Glenn Smith has only 334 rushing yards on the season so the running game is secondary. He did miss the first portion of the season with injury and has averaged 13 carries per game over his last six so he could find some success against a bad rushing defense, but don’t expect a ton of touches.

Elite Options – Nick Arbuckle (QB-DK), Keith Rucker (TE), Penny Hart (WR)

Secondary Options – Robert Davis (WR), Donovan Harden (WR), Glenn Smith (RB)

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs – O/U 68

Arkansas Tech

This game checks in with the highest total on the slate at 68 points, and is a great game to target as it is expected to remain very competitive. Louisiana Tech has featured a top notch run defense so with Arkansas State predicted to score 33 points, it stands to reason that most of their production will come through the air against Tech’s 112th ranked passing defense. Fredi Knighten is a dual threat QB, who offers big upside. He struggled with injuries to start the year but has produced at least 3 combined TDs in four of his last five games. He’s a bit tougher to fit on DK, but on FD, he’s my favorite option as most of the QB are similarly priced. He does spread the ball around to his WR as Tres Houston (33/568/10), J.D. McKissic (49/499/2) and Dijon Paschall (37/524/3) all have similar production. Houston is one of the highest priced WR on FD, but he’s dirt cheap on DK at just $3,900.

The Arkansas State rushing offense is 17th in the country in rushing YPG, but they face a tough test in Louisiana Tech. Michael Gordon is their top back but at times throughout the year he’s split carries with Warren Wand and Johnston White. White in particular has been a TD vulture with 14 TD so it’s a little tough to trust Gordon. However, Gordon did rack up 20 carries in the season finale so maybe he’s locked down the RB spot again.

Elite Options – Fredi Knighten (QB), Tres Houston (WR – DK)

Secondary Options – J. D. McKissic (WR), Michel Gordon (RB), Johnston White (RB)

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech checks in as the slight favorites and have the second highest team total on the day. The weakness of this Arkansas State defense has been their passing defense as they are 102nd in passing yards allowed per game. Jeff Driskel was a huge disappointment at Florida but has found success at Louisiana Tech this season. His volume has been up and down this season, but given Arkansas State’s weakness, he could take to the air often in this one. He’s a top five option on this slate. His top target is Trent Taylor, who looks to be the top WR option on this slate. He’s topped 1,100 receiving yards on the year and is the best bet to take advantage of the weak Arkansas State secondary. At just $6,500, he’s a plug and play for me on FD. If you can’t quite squeeze him on DK, Carlos Henderson (35/721/5) is Driskel’s second option and offers a solid discount, with Paul Turner (40/560/3) as their third WR.

Despite the fact that Arkansas State’s run defense has been their strength, Kenneth Dixon is still my top RB option. In terms of YPC, Arkansas State is just average at 4.1 YPC, and Dixon has a nose for the endzone with 22 TDs on the season. He’s a guy who contributes in both the running and passing game and with Louisiana Tech predicted to score five TDs, this sets up as a multi-TD game for him.

Elite Options -Kenneth Dixon (RB), Trent Taylor (WR), Jeff Driskel (QB)

Secondary Options – Carlos Henderson (WR), Paul Turner (WR)