CFB Grind Down - Saturday, September 5th

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

NOTE – The Grind Down will focus only on the main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings due to the late release of the late Saturday night games.

Illinois State Redbirds at Iowa Hawkeyes

Illinois State Redbirds Iowa Hawkeyes
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
0 68.15 73.75
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 223.15 247.15 Offense 242.00 156.33
Opp Def 175.75 158.75 Opp Def 169.92 100.92
Opp Def Rank 2nd 76th Opp Def Rank

Breakdown

This is one of several games that is DK only and currently doesn’t have a Vegas Line, as Illinois State is an FCS team. While Illinois State is an FCS team, they’re a very good FCS team; they reached the championship game last year and beat Eastern Washington, who was led by now Oregon QB Vernon Adams, Jr. They feature former Indiana QB Tre Roberson and should give Iowa some problems here. They’re not in the player pool so we don’t have to worry about them and can focus on Iowa. The Iowa passing game has been a mess recently, so I’m just going to continue to avoid them until proven otherwise. With Iowa it’s really all about their RBs, and surprisingly LeShun Daniels is listed a top the depth chart over Jordan Canzeri.

Iowa

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

LeShun Daniels, Jr. (DK: $6,200) – As mentioned he’s slated to be the starter and is expected to play 1st and 2nd downs, with Jordan Canzeri as the 3rd-down back. Daniels has all the measurables and dominated the weight room and track in the offseason, but hasn’t emerged yet due to injuries and a crowded backfield. As mentioned Illinois State should be able to keep this close and Daniels is going to have to play well to continue to hold off Canzeri. He’s not a guy I’d go all in on, but he is definitely a very intriguing option as a flex play, as he should see solid volume in the run heavy Iowa offense.

Richmond Spiders at Maryland Terrapins

Richmond Spiders Maryland Terrapins
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
0 76.23 66.08
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 314.92 146.69 Offense 221.50 130.58
Opp Def 236.50 201.58 Opp Def 190.08 116.15
Opp Def Rank 84th 97th Opp Def Rank

Breakdown

Richmond lost four FCS games last year and was hammered 45-13 by a bad offense in Virginia. They do have three preseason FCS All Americans at RB and WR, so maybe they could be able to put up a few points and keep the Maryland starters around for a little while. The problem is figuring out the Maryland offense, which wasn’t great last year and lost their quarterback, CJ Brown. Perry Hills was named the starting QB and he’s just not a guy I think is very good ( and judging from the Maryland fans’ reactions they don’t think so either), so I’m looking towards their RB mainly.

Maryland

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Brandon Ross (DK: $4,200) – I actually think he’s a very sneaky option and while I won’t go with him for the cash game route, I like him as a low owned GPP option. He was actually very solid last year averaging 4.9 YPC, but the problem was that he had fumbling issues which led to his demotion. He’s apparently worked on those issues and won back the starting job. Last year’s quarterback, CJ Brown, was a major threat on the ground last year and Hills is not near the running threat that Brown was, so more should be put on the Ross’ plate this season. Add in the fact that I’m not a fan of Hills and I think Maryland takes a run heavy approach against a weak opponent, which could lead to Ross surprising.

Levern Jacobs (DK: $3,300) – Jacobs put together a solid 2013 year with over 600 yards receiving but was suspended for the entire season last year. He’s back in good graces and is expected to serve as the primary option to replace Stefon Diggs. At an almost minimum price, I don’t mind taking a shot with him given the weak opponent but I do have reservations about his quarterback play.

Stanford Cardinal at Northwestern WildcatsO/U 45

Stanford Cardinal Northwestern Wildcats
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
28.5 -12 65.67 78.42 16.5 12
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 231.67 154.75 Offense 216.50 136.58
Opp Def 214.33 169.92 Opp Def 175.67 111.75
Opp Def Rank 32nd 72nd Opp Def Rank 12th 6th

Breakdown

I typically mostly avoid games involving Stanford, as they play at a slow tempo and are very sound defensively. With this game carrying a low 45 total, this certainly isn’t a game to load up on and the RBs are really the only guys on my radar, as they both are cheap on DK.

Northwestern

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Justin Jackson (FD: $7,300, DK: $5,000) – On DK, this is probably one of the lower prices you’ll see on him all year long, but it does come against a Stanford team that was top 10 in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game, as well as rushing yards per attempt. However, they are losing their entire defensive line and with Northwestern breaking in a new QB, I’d expect them to test those new defensive line starters early and often. That should mean big volume for Jackson, who is coming off of a successful freshman year that saw him run for 1,187 yards and 10 TDs, in addition to 200 receiving yards – despite not starting at the beginning of last year. The matchup is no doubt very tough but there should be some volume here on DK at a cheap price point and Stanford could see a dropoff along the DL. His price on FD is about right, so I wouldn’t go out of my way to roster him there.

Stanford

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Christian McCaffrey (FD: $7,000, DK: $4,800) – He’s listed as the starting RB, KR and PR, so it looks like Stanford is going to put him to frequent use this season. It’s also expected that he’ll split out wide as wide receiver in some formations (he’s the son of former Bronco great Ed McCaffrey). He didn’t see a ton of volume last season, but he did average over 7.0 YPC on the season. This Stanford offensive line returns four starters and in preseason magazines is rated as one of the top offensive lines in the country. Northwestern was middle of the pack last year against the run as they allowed 4.4 YPC, but they are returning their entire defensive line intact, and it’s expected to be a solid unit. It sounds like he’ll receive upwards of 20 touches per game, so despite an average at best matchup, there is some solid volume here for his price point on DK.

Austin Hooper (FD: $3,700, DK: $3,000) – He’s a guy I’d only look to on a site that requires TEs. Hooper (40/499/2) is coming off of a solid freshman year and the Stanford system makes solid use of their TEs. Northwestern is returning a solid secondary, but there are questions in their LB corp, so Hooper could find room over the middle and is one of the better TE options on FD. Francis Owusu and Devon Cajuste should be Stanford’s top wide outs, which my preference being Cajuste, but this isn’t a passing system that you have to have a piece of.

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks at Ole Miss Rebels

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks Ole Miss Rebels
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
0 72.33 70.00
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 211.00 198.50 Offense 275.75 167.75
Opp Def 187.58 134.00 Opp Def 244.17 152.17
Opp Def Rank 25th 30th Opp Def Rank

Breakdown

This is another game between FCS and FBS teams that I was unable to find a Vegas line on. Tennessee Martin took a round house kick to the face by Rex Kwon Do, er Kentucky last season, as they got blown out, and also lost to Mississippi State 45-16. Due to the blowouts, no RB on either Kentucky or Mississippi State topped 10 carries against them last year, and this look a similar situation. The Rebs will be legit on defense and this one should be out of hand early, so I question whether anyone gets enough volume to put up a big day. Chad Kelly will be the starter at QB, but I’m not spending $7,000 on him. They do get Laquon Treadwell back from injury and he’s one of the elite wide receivers in all of college football.

Mississippi

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Laquon Treadwell (DK: $5,900) – He’s the only guy that’s on my radar and that’s only for GPPs, as the blowout factor here is very troublesome. He was lost for the season due to a gruesome injury against Auburn, but he’s a matchup nightmare when he’s healthy and I could certainly see him getting in to the endzone in this one.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Georgia BulldogsO/U 52

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Georgia Bulldogs
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
8.5 35 74.25 66.67 43.5 -35
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 279.92 69.50 Offense 199.92 255.75
Opp Def 158.42 175.58 Opp Def 189.92 183.33
Opp Def Rank 9th 58th Opp Def Rank 14th 82nd

Breakdown

This one is expected to be an easy win for the Bulldogs, as they’re predicted to win along the lines of 45-10. Given the Warhawks total as well as the fact that they’re breaking in a new QB and playing way up in competition, I’d cross them off the list. They do have a few wide receivers like Holley and Ceaser that could factor in down the road, but we’ll cross that road when they’re not facing a high level SEC team. The big question in this one simply boils down to the volume that Nick Chubb gets before hitting the bench in a blowout.

ULM

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

NONE

Georgia

Elite Options

Nick Chubb (DK: $10,200) – There’s no question about his talent or production here, and he’s going to be among the leading rushers in the entire nation. The worry here is how hard Georgia is willing to ride him in the opener, as he’s a guy they are going to have to lean on heavily this season due to some major questions at QB and WR. They jump into SEC play in Week 2 and Week 3, so there’s some very real volume concerns here. Looking at their blowout non-conferences games last year, the starting Georgia RB didn’t top 10 carries. However, ULM is a stronger opponent than both of those opponents (Troy and Charleston), so I do think Chubb goes over 10 carries, but I’d be surprised at anything over 15. Given his high price tag and volume concerns, I don’t think he’s a must play in cash games, but I don’t mind getting some exposure to him in tournaments since he could easily rip off some long TDs runs and put up 150 yards and 3 TDs before he hits the bench.

Secondary Options

Sony Michel (FD: $6,500, DK: $4,700) – The week Georgia played Troy, he hauled off and won GPPs, as he put up 150 yards and three TDs at minimum price. He’s listed second on the depth chart behind Chubb and was a five star in his own right so he’s very talented. The problem is that he’s not minimum price this year and Georgia’s backfield is stupid deep as Keith Marshall is also back from injury, not to mention Brendan Douglas, who also saw time last year. I could see some people getting cute and rostering the backup UGA RB in a blowout, but UGA could easily decide to get all four of those RBs carries so it’s a very risky proposition in my eyes.

Malcolm Mitchell (FD: $6,300, DK: $4,800) – Mitchell (31/248/3) would be the only Georgia option in the passing game that I’d remotely think about rostering. He’s a talented kid that has unfortunately been unable to stay healthy his entire career. Outside of him, the WRs are unproven so he should be the leader of the unit. The problem is that Greyson Lambert won the QB battle, and he’s a guy who couldn’t hold the job at Virginia, who was terrible offensively. With Georgia’s OL and RB depth, I’m expecting them to be very run heavy, but if ULM loads the box, Mitchell could break off a big one. He’s a deep GPP option only though and there are other guys I’d much prefer.


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