CFB Grind Down - Saturday, September 5th - Page 4

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-06 00:22:38

Virginia Cavaliers at UCLA Bruins – O/U 53

Breakdown

UCLA is installed as very solid 20 point favorites with a team total of just over 35 points so they’re a team that is on my radar. Virginia has been an offense that I mostly have avoided in recent years as their QB play has been awful. I’ll be avoiding them again this year as they graduated their top skill talent in Kevin Parks, and UCLA is expected to be improved defensively.

Virginia

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

NONE

UCLA

Elite Options

Paul Perkins (FD: $9,400, DK: $8,500) – The UCLA offensive line has struggled in year’s past, but they’re all grown up now as they now return 131 career starts along the offensive line, which according to pre-season magazines is the most in the nation. That should mean big things for Perkins who was already coming off of a monster season that saw him rush for 1,600 yards and 9 TDs. With new QB Josh Rosen not near the running threat that Brett Hundley was, I think you see Perkins TD total spike this season (Hundley ran for 10 TDs last year). Virginia is not a pushover defensively, but I don’t expect them to be quite as good as last year and they did graduate their entire linebacking corp.

Secondary Options

Josh Rosen (FD: $7,200, DK: $6,300) – This kid is coming in with a ton of hype as he was the nation’s number 1 quarterback recruit last year, and has already claimed the job vacated due to Brett Hundley’s departure to the NFL. Virginia isn’t the softest landing spot as they should be solid defensively, but they did lose their top pass rusher to the NFL and he has a solid WR corp to throw to. I think there are more proven guys in his price range that I’d prefer to target but wouldn’t hate on a GPP play.

Jordan Payton (FD: $6,700, DK: $4,700) – If the hype on Rosen is true then Payton (67/954/7) should be in for another big season. He apparently roomed with Rosen during portions of fall camp and his price tag on DK is particularly attractive. UCLA is actually bringing back their top five wide receivers from last year so outside of Payton, I’ll wait and see if Rosen seems to have a rapport with anyone else.

Bowling Green Falcons at Tennessee Volunteers – O/U 60

Breakdown

The total in this one started at 57 and has climbed all the way to 69, with the Volunteers as 21 point favorites. This is one of my favorite games on the slate and I’ll have heavy exposure to Tennessee throughout all my lineups. Bowling Green is very talented offensively so they should be able to keep this in striking distance, which should mean that the Tennessee starters see all four quarters against a very bad defense.

Bowling Green is going to typically be a team to target when they’re in the game sets as they get back their starting QB, Matt Johnson, and are loaded at WR. They’re even adding a former five-star talent in former Baylor WR Robbie Rhodes. However, I’ll pass this week as I don’t like the competition jump, and they can spread the ball around on offense so it can be tough to pinpoint production on a week to week basis. Once they get into conference they’re a team to jump all over if they land in a game set.

Bowling Green

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

NONE

Tennessee

Elite Options

Jalen Hurd (FD: $8,300, DK: $6,900) – Tennessee did bring in one of the top JC running backs in the country in Alvin Kamara, who was previously at Alabama, and he will factor in here as Tennessee is talking about getting them both on the field at times. However, Hurd is coming at a discount to the other top RBs and this presents the best matchup of the day. Bowling Green is talented enough offensively to put 14 to 21 points up on the board here, but they finished 102nd in rush defense and lack size along their DL. Hurd is all the way up to 240 pounds and is also a factor in the passing game, which is nice on DK. I think Tennessee approaches 50 points here and will exposure to Hurd throughout my lineups.

Marquez North (FD: $6,200, DK: $4,200) – If you can nail down the top Volunteer wide receiver this week, I think you’ll be in great shape. Tennessee is missing their top wide receiver, Pig Howard, as well as dealing with some other injuries so they’re a little light here this week in terms of bodies. Bowling Green was even worse against the pass than the run last year, as they were 125th in passing yards allowed. The starting three of Jauan Jennings, Marquez North, and Josh Malone are all cheap, but outside of the suspended Howard, no Tennessee WR topped 400 yards receiving last season. There is some uncertainty here, but I’ll give the edge to North. I wouldn’t be shocked if Jennings was the guy though as he’s apparently had a great camp as he’s transitioned from QB, and he happens to be minimum price on DK (he’s unfortunately listed as a QB on FD).

NOTE – It’s College Football and one of the biggest problems is injury info. From reading the Tennessee 247 recruiting site there are rumblings that Marquez North may not be 100%. Just something to take note off if you had heavy exposure to him

Joshua Dobbs (FD: $10,000, DK: $9,600) – He was not named the starter until midway through last season, and he proceeded to rack up 20 total TDs in his seven starts. He’s a factor in both the run game and passing game, and as mentioned this is a great matchup. The only issue I have with him is an elevated price tag and the fact that there are some solid mid-tier options at QB, as well as a guy like Falk in his tier range.

Secondary Options

NONE

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Missouri Tigers

Breakdown

It took me a while to figure out who this team was and whether it Southeast or Southeastern so that should tell you about how competitive they will be. They didn’t even finish .500 in FCS last year so this should be over early.

Missouri

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Maty Mauk (DK: $6,500) – Mauk was really bad at times last year and overall had a disappointing year from what was expected. He does have some running ability and is talented so I wouldn’t be surprised if he bounced back with a better year this season as he’ll have a year as a starter under his belt. His price tag is affordable and while he I wouldn’t touch him in cash games, I don’t hate him as a GPP play. Missouri could try to get his confidence off to a good start against an overwhelmed FCS team.

Missouri Wide Receivers – J’Mon Moore ($4,600), Nate Brown ($3,800) and Keyon Dilosa ($3,000) are expected to be the starters. It sounds like they’re most excited about Moore, who will be the X receiver, so he’d be the guy I’d handcuff with Mauk if I went that route.

Russell Hansbrough (DK: $7,200) – I’m expecting him to have a really nice year as he should get a nice volume boost with Marcus Murphy graduated. Last season he ran for 1,100 yards and 10 TDs while virtually splitting time with Murphy and this is a solid running system. The elevated price tag and blowout factor will likely keep me away in everything but a large field GPP, but he could break a few big ones and overall he’s a guy I like going forward.

Southern Illinois Salukis at Indiana Hoosiers

Breakdown

And we finish this slate off with another FCS/FBS game. Southern Illinois is another bad FCS team as they struggled in FCS play, and got beat soundly by a bad Purdue team. Based on that Indiana should be able to do what they want here, and it’s just a matter of how long they leave their starters. As is the case with the majority of these FCS games, I prefer the Indiana’s options as GPP only plays.

Indiana

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Jordan Howard (DK: $7,500) – He put up huge numbers at UAB last year, but transferred when it was announced they had to shut down their football program. He’s a power conference talent and he wasted little time in proving that as he’s emerged atop the Indiana depth chart. However, I’m going to take a wait and see approach here as there are plenty of other RB options, and I’ve seen a few news articles talking about how replacing Tevin Coleman won’t be a one-man job. I don’t hate the play but I’m also not necessarily expecting Tevin Coleman like volume here. If he does get that volume then I’m all aboard the Howard train going forward.

Nate Sudfeld (DK: $7,800) & Simmie Cobbs (DK: $3,800) – Sudfeld is back from injury and has at times thrown for some big yardage. However, Indiana became more run-heavy last year, and they bring another talented back in Howard. At his price point, I think he’s a pass, but I am interested in Cobbs, who supposedly had a great camp and expected to be Sudfeld’s top option. He brings great size at 6’4 and averaged 16.3 yards per reception in limited duty last year.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Eastern Michigan Eagles – O/U 65

Breakdown

This is a FanDuel only game, but make sure you don’t overlook it as there is some nice fantasy potential here. It has a solid 63 total with ODU only favored by 4.5 points. Both of these teams were very bad defensively last year. EMU was a disaster against both the pass and the run as they were 115th in the nation in both categories, while ODU was a sieve against the run, finishing 119th in the country. Eastern Michigan does return a bunch of starters on defense, but I’m not sure how good that is given their defensive rankings the past few seasons, and they lost their starting NT for the season. Last season, this game was a surprising defensive struggle, but Vegas expects a different story this season.

ODU

Elite Options

Ray Lawry (FD: $9,900) – Lawry was listed as third team RB in the last depth chart, but that was due to him being late for a meeting, and according to the ODU head coach, Lawry is back in the starting lineup. They’re breaking in a new freshman QB in Shuler Bentley, who is for some reason priced at $9,400, and it sounds like they’re going to try to ease in Bentley. Lawry (134/968/16) didn’t start all of last season but emerged as the conference freshman of the year. He ran for over 100 yards in five of his seven starts, and the ODU OC had the following quote: “The most important thing we do starting with Eastern Michigan is get Ray going.” He’s certainly expensive and priced right up there Nick Chubb and Paul Perkins so his ownership should be low due to lack of name recognition. However, given EMU’s issues the last few year defending the run (Lawry had 4 carries for 69 yards and a TD against them last year) I’m going to definitely get some exposure to him.

Secondary Options

Zach Pascal (FD: $8,000) – FanDuel really juiced the salaries on the entire ODU offense so I’m most comfortable with Lawry as he has less uncertainty around him. Digging into the new ODU QB, Shuler Bentley, he threw for a ton of yards in high school, but this is his first start and it’s on the road. This has been a pass happy offense so there is potential and Pascal (59/743/7) and David Washington (47/599/4) are the top two receiving options coming back. Pascal is a preseason C-USA all-conference selection, and given EMU’s awful defense, I think Pascal is worth a look in tournaments as his price should really limit ownership.

EMU

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Reginald Bell, Jr (FD: $8,900) – I’d prefer to look elsewhere as his passing is very suspect and his game logs are all over the place. However, ODU was very bad defensively last year and they return only 5 starters. Bell was awful in most starts, but he also had games with 35 and 46 FD points so there is some GPP upside when combined with ODU’s poor defense. His passing is suspect, but he did lead EMU in rushing attempts (133), rushing yards (762), and rushing touchdowns (4).

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