CFB Grind Down: Thursday, September 3rd - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-04 17:07:41

TCU Horned Frogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers – O/U 58

Breakdown

We’ll get our first look at the nation’s second ranked team as well as their Heisman contender, Trevone Boykin, as they face off with a solid Minnesota team. Minnesota was a much improved team last season and is expected to keep this one fairly close, so the TCU offense should see four quarters of action. Minnesota is no slouch defensively, so this is by no means an easy matchup, but the Horned Frogs return 10 offensive starters from a potent offense and have the third highest team total on the slate, so they’re a solid target. As far as Minnesota goes, I’d stick to the ground game as they really struggle to throw the ball with any consistency and lost their top receiving target, Maxx Williams, to the NFL draft.

TCU

Elite Options

Trevone Boykin (FD: $10,500, DK: $10,300) – I’m expecting to see him in New York at the end of the year as a Heisman finalist, and he’s my top option at QB in cash games if I’m spending up at the position. He’s coming off of a breakout season that saw him put up 3,900 passing yards and 33 TDs, as well as 850 rushing yards and 8 TDs. This isn’t a prime matchup for TCU as this is actually a pace down game and their team total of 36 points is 10 points lower than the 46 they averaged last season. However, none of the established QBs draw that premier matchup, and I have Boykin as my top option due to sheer volume in both the running and passing game. In addition to attempting almost 40 pass attempts per game last year, Boykin also averaged over 10 rushing attempts per game. That type of volume gives him not only a terrific floor but also a very high ceiling in all formats.

Josh Doctson (FD: $8,300, DK: $7,200) – Like Boykin, Doctson is coming off of a breakout year that saw him produce 65 receptions for over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. He’s Boykin’s favorite red-zone target and despite Minnesota containing TCU last season, Doctson still produced a solid outing as he reached pay dirt twice. He should be in for a monster season and should be one of the top WRs to target on a week to week basis, and this week is no different. The thing to watch is that he has missed the majority of camp with an injury, but he is expected to play. This is a situation I’d check back in on closer to kick off as college coaches are notoriously sneaky with injury information.

Secondary Options

Aaron Green (FD: $8,300, DK: $6,900) – Green took over as the starting RB last year due to an injury to B. J. Catalon, who subsequently bolted to the NFL. He made the most of his opportunity as he produced eight TDs in his five starts as well rushing for over 100 yards three times. He averaged right around 20 touches per game in his starts and if that volume is there again then he should be in for a big year in TCU’s powerful offense. I don’t have him down as an elite option for a few reasons. The first is that Minnesota is expected to be a good run defense, although they did allow 5.0 YPC last year. The second and more important reason is that I’ve seen murmuring of more a RBBC approach this year. TCU still hasn’t released a depth chart for Week 1, but I’m hoping to see alone a top the depth chart. I think he’s still a very viable GPP play, especially on DK, to get exposure to the high powered TCU offense, but I’m a little more concerned about his volume load than I initially was.

Kolby Listenbee (FD: $5,900, DK: $4,700) – If you can’t swing Doctson’s price tag, Listenbee (41/753/4) is a solid value option with upside to get exposure to the TCU high flying passing game. Listenbee was second in yardage last year for the Horned Frogs, and their third wide receiver, Deante Gray, is expected to miss the opener. That could mean that Listenbee sees a few more targets come his way. He is one of the fastest players in the entire nation as he averaged almost 20 YPC last season, and all it takes is him getting behind the defense one time for him to almost pay off his cheap tag.

Minnesota

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Rodrick Williams, Jr. (FD: $6,000, DK: $5,100) – He could be a nice target to look to at times this season, as he’s expected to see 20+ carries a game in Minnesota’s run heavy offense. His price point is solid around the industry, but this is a tough matchup. TCU is losing a lot of defensive talent, but they are returning three starters from a defensive line that allowed 2.9 YPC, which was lowest in the country. They did graduate their entire LB corp, but historically attacking a Gary Patterson defense with running backs has not been advisable.

Mitch Leidner (FD: $7,000, DK: $5,600) – Like Williams he’s not a guy I’m very enthused about, but thought he warranted a quick mention. He supposedly had a great camp, but he’s going to have to prove it to me first as his passing needs a lot of work. However, he is a solid threat in the run game as he ran for 600 yards and 10 TDs, so if his passing did improve he could be a sneaky option to watch this season.

UTSA Roadrunners at Arizona Wildcats – O/U 54

Breakdown

This game is projected to be the one certain blowout of the night, as Arizona checks in as 32-point favorites. UTSA was a rock solid team last year and took Arizona to the wire. However, this year is a different story as they graduated the majority of their contributors and return only six starters. Arizona should roll here and with UTSA having just a 10 point team total, just cross them off your list. Arizona is more tricky as they have the highest team total of the night at 42 points, but the question is how long their starters stay in the game.

UTSA

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

NONE

Arizona

Elite Options

Nick Wilson (FD: $10,100, DK: $9,000) – Any concern with Wilson on this slate has nothing to do with talent or scheme, as he burst onto the scene with 1,375 rushing yards and 16 TDs. Rich Rodriguez’s system is one of the top systems in the nation for RBs and it’s a position that consistently puts up monster fantasy numbers. UTSA returns only one starter in their front seven, so this is a gigantic mismatch, and that is reflected in the Vegas line, which is the primary concern. He’s priced as the top back on the board at both DK and FD, so the concern is whether this game stays competitive long enough for him to hit value. I do love Wilson’s upside as he could certainly break off some huge runs before hitting the bench (and Rich Rod has run up the score at times). I’d rate him as a secondary and risky option for cash games, but an elite upside option for GPPs.

Secondary Options

Anu Solomon (FD: $9,900, DK: $9,200) – He falls into a similar category as Marquise Williams for me, as I’m really liking him as a tournament option. He’ll likely be the lowest owned high end option due to the fact that many will be scared off by the high spread, which is a concern for cash games. However, for GPPs I think he makes for an excellent play if you’re rolling multiple lineups, and Arizona does have the highest team total on the slate. He had a great freshman year when he threw for 3,800 yards and 28 TDs, but did fade down the stretch. He’s apparently continued to show solid improvement, and put up some big games last year, especially against weak competition. In last season’s opener, he piled up 425 passing yards and four TDs and was still in the game with Arizona ahead 51-13. That did come in his first start, so it’s possible Arizona was trying to get him some experience, but he could see enough of action to do plenty of damage here.

Cayleb Jones (FD: $8,100, DK: $6,100) – Jones (73/1019/9) was Solomon’s favorite target last season, and was tied to Solomon’s success as had a strong start to the year, but faded down the stretch. I’m particularly intrigued by his price tag on DK. Like the rest of their team, UTSA lost a lot in the secondary, and if they focus too much on the Arizona run game, Jones could break off some a few big plays. I’ll probably stick to Jones, but the Anu Solomon and Samajie Grant (45/718/6) handcuff should be very low owned. Grant is coming off of a solid year and could also factor in here as a deep tournament option.

Jared Baker (FD: $5,400, DK: $3,000) – According to the latest depth chart, he’s listed as a co-starter with Wilson. Most of the Arizona websites maintain to not read to much into that fact. However, I thought it was interesting and he could see a few early carries and then add on some additional carries once the starters hit the bench. It’s not a play I’d make in a cash game, but if you need a cheap RB, he could grab a cheap garbage TD and/or break off a big run as a minimum price flex option on DK.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Vanderbilt Commodores – O/U 64

Breakdown

This should be one of the more entertaining games of the night as it carries the highest total with a spread of only 1.5 points. The primary focus will be on the juggernaut Western Kentucky offense that produced 536 yards per game last season, which was fourth in the nation. Vanderbilt was far from an offensive juggernaut as they were among the worst offenses in the nation, but they will get the benefit of facing the Western Kentucky defense, which was among the worst defenses in the nation. I think there could be some value with the Vanderbilt running game as their team total is much higher than any we saw last season. Conversely, while I love the WKU offense and will be targeting them heavily this season, they averaged 44.4 PPG last year and their team total is around 32 points here, so this may not be as good of a matchup as it appears on first glance.

Western Kentucky

Elite Options

Brandon Doughty (FD: $10,100, DK: $9,000) – Doughy will be taking to the air early and often as he averaged just over 42 pass attempts per game and threw for 4,800 yards and 49 TDs last season, which was second nationally behind only Washington State. I personally prefer Trevone Boykin and Marquise Williams if I’m spending up at QB, as I always favor the dual threat unless the passing QB has a prime matchup, and I think Vandy is a solid but not great match up. That being said, I can’t argue with his volume and WKU is expected to top 30 points here, so he’s certainly a fine option in all formats.

Jared Dangerfield (FD: $8,100, DK: $5,900) – He led a very deep WKU receiving corp last year with 69 receptions for 825 yards and 11 TDs. WKU graduated some solid WR depth, so I’m expecting him to draw a few more targets and build on his numbers from last year. He’ll still share targets with Antwane Grant,Taywan Taylor and even Tyler Higbee, but he should continue to lead the team in production. One thing to watch for here though is that as of August 27th, he had missed two straight weeks of practice, and according to the WKU head coach: “we’ve got to make sure we try to get him back.” Injuries can be tricky in CFB, so be sure to monitor his status up to kick. As long as he’s cleared, he’s a great option in WKU’s high volume attack and I particularly love his cheap price point on DK, which also happens to be a full PPR site.

Secondary Options

Leon Allen (FD: $9,000, DK: $9,200): Allen is going to be a guy to consider each and every week that WKU is included in the game sets, as he was dynamic in the running game (272/1542/13) and also chipped in the passing game (51/476/3) last season. Despite the fact that he carries such a heavy load in one of the top offenses in the country, he’s a GPP only play for me in Week 1 for a few reasons. The first reason is that he had some offseason legal issues and there are murmurs he could face some in game discipline. No suspension has been announced of yet so he should be fine, but in CFB, you never know as the collegiate coaches are very secretive. The second is that although Vandy was not a good team last year, I’m a little concerned about the WKU offensive line holding up against a power six conference defensive line, especially because they’re apparently having some issues on the right side of their line due to injury. He could certainly still put up a big line, and I especially like his receiving skills on a site like DK, so I do still like him as a GPP play.

Taywan Taylor (FD: $6,500, DK: $4,800) and Antwane Grant (FD: $5,200, DK: $3,700) – Given the amount of volume the WKU passing attack generates, Taylor (45/767/7) and Grant (41/509/6), who are WKU’s second and third WRs, are solid value options as a WR3 or flex option. Give them both huge bumps up if for some reason Jared Dangerfield doesn’t return from injury.

Tyler Higbee (FD: $3,500, DK: $3,100) – He had a stat line of 15/230/4 as a backup TE last year, and should see a boost in production as he steps into the starting lineup. On a site like FD, he’s definitely in play as a TE option.

Vanderbilt

Elite Options

Ralph Webb (FD: $8,900, DK: $6,500) – I’m certainly not in love with his price tag on FD, but I’m really liking his price point on DK. This is a pace up game for Vandy and their team total is much higher than anything we saw from them last year. Vanderbilt was a mess last year offensively, so they brought in a new OC in Andy Ludwig, who was previously OC at run heavy Wisconsin. That should mean a solid boost for Webb, and given Vanderbilt’s QB issues, Webb should be the focal point of their offense after a solid freshman year that saw him run for over 900 yards. Also, I’d expect Vandy to try to control clock and tempo here against WKU’s high octane offense. Vanderbilt returns four offensive lineman, and WKU was among the worst defenses in the country last year allowing 229 rushing YPG (112th) and 5.0 YPC. WKU does return the majority of their front seven and expects to be improved, but I’m not quite sold and will side with the Vandy running game in this matchup as they will enjoy a big size advantage. Every one of the Commodore’s OL tops 300 pounds while WKU goes 295, 285, 250 and 245 along their defensive line.

Secondary Options

Steven Scheu (FD: $3,500, DK: $3,200) – Outside of Webb, there’s not a lot to like for Vanderbilt offensively, as their passing game was terrible last season, and as of Sunday night there was still uncertainty as to who would start at QB. Scheu (39/525/4) actually led Vandy in receiving last season and should continue to be a top option as they lost their second leading wide receiver, C. J. Duncan, to an injury. WKU struggled big time on defense last season, so he’s a solid TE play on a site that requires a TE.

Ohio Bobcats at Idaho Vandals – O/U 56

Breakdown

I’m hoping the lack on name brand value in this game keeps ownership levels low, as there are several players that I’m really liking on both sides of this contest.

Ohio

Elite Options

A. J. Ouellette (FD: $8,900, DK: $6,400) – That price on FD is steep, but player prices as a whole are very high there; on DK I’m loving his price point. He’s obviously not a household name, so hopefully he flies under the radar as dollar for dollar he is right there as one of my favorite plays on this slate on DK. Ohio returns their entire offensive line and given their poor QB play, they should be a run heavy team. Ouellette had a solid freshman year, and was a workhorse down the stretch averaging almost 24 carries per game in the last four games of the season. There is some talk he may not see quite that heavy of load, but 20 carries should allow him to pay off his DK price tag. Idaho featured one of the worst defenses in the country last year, allowing 5.6 YPC, and return only four starters in their front seven. Ouellette took full advantage of their weak rush defense last year, as he racked up 132 yards and two TDs against them.

Secondary Options

Derrius Vick (FD: $8,200, DK: $7,700) – He was just named the starter, and Idaho is a defense to pick on, but at his price point on FD and DK, I’ll pass on Vick. If you can find him at a cheap price point on another site, he does offer some rushing upside, but he only threw for more than 200 yards in three of his eight games last year.

Idaho

Elite Options

Dezmon Epps (FD: $5,900, DK: $4,000) – Epps could fly under the radar for the people who don’t dig into this game, as they’ll see his 0 fantasy points and move on down the road. However, he averaged 0 fantasy points because he was suspended for off the field issues. He’d be priced much higher based on his 2013 stats that saw him produce 77 receptions for over 900 yards. Ohio’s weakness last year was against the pass and Idaho is a pass happy offense that attempted 40 passer per game last year (16th in the country), so there should be plenty of volume for Epps to easily pay off this tag.

Secondary Options

Matt Linehan (FD: $6,400, DK: $4,400) – He was not good last year as he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and I definitely wouldn’t trust him on single QB sites. However, if you’re looking to load up at RB and WR, he could be a GPP dart throw as a QB2, as he should see volume in the pass heavy Idaho attack. In this matchup last year, he put up 21 DK points, which would easily pay off this salary. However, that was one of his better games of the season, and one article I read indicated that Idaho’s back up QB could see a few game reps as well.

Elijhaa Penny (FD: $6,500, DK: $3,800) – He’s unlikely to put up a big yardage total as he only topped 100 rushing yards one time last year, and Ohio was solid against the run last year. However, if you’re looking for a cheap TD, he does have a nose for the endzone as he produced 13 TDs, including one against Ohio.

Deon Watson (FD: $3,400, DK: $3,200) & David Ungerer (FD:$4,800, DK:$3,000) – Watson is a FD only play at TE as I wouldn’t touch him on a site that doesn’t require a TE. Watson (37/343/1) is a former WR and put up solid production for a TE. He’s not in my top three at TE, but if you’re looking for a pivot from the chalk TEs in GPPs, he’s certainly an option. Ungerer is only an option if you need a min priced punt option in one of your flex spots on DK. He’s apparently had a good camp and is expected to be Idaho’s second WR.

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