CFB Grind Down: Week 10 - Early Slate (Page 2)

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-06 17:27:05

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers – O/U 53

Notre Dame

This is a pretty average matchup overall for the Irish as they head on the road to face a Pitt team that plays slow and has been very good defensively this year. They haven’t many quality offenses but they did hold UNC to 26 points last week, which did catch my eye. Based on that projecting Notre Dame for 24 to 30 points seems about right so I wouldn’t go crazy here.

Notre Dame is easy to figure out as Deshone Kizer, William Fuller and C.J. Prosise do all of the damage. Kizer has been very good since stepping in as the starter and has rushed for a TD in every start but one. Given the slow paced nature of Pitt and some of the other matchups, I’ll likely look elsewhere this week but there’s no denying he’s been productive. Clemson and Temple have managed to bottle up Prosise, but he’s otherwise been great. He’s not going to come cheap, and I think there are softer matchups that I’ll likely target more, but he’s certainly in play on this slate.

Temple was also able to corral Fuller, but he broke free for the game winning TD and has now scored in every week but one. I don’t think the Pitt pass defense is as good as it is on paper and UNC threw the ball with success on them last week. His price is way down on DK, and he’s one of the top options at WR in this slate. On FD, if you need a 2k punt at TE, you could take a look at Alize Jones.

Elite Options – Will Fuller

Secondary Options – C. J. Prosise, Deshone Kizer, Alize Jones (FD)

Pitt

This Pitt offense has really struggled due to the loss of James Conner as well as very iffy QB play. Notre Dame has been solid defensively and with Pitt holding just a 22 point team total there aren’t a ton of options. The two guys worth a mention are Tyler Boyd and Qadree Ollison.

Boyd is one of the best WR in America but doesn’t put up the numbers because of Pitt’s run heavy offense and weak QB play. I prefer him more on DK as he hasn’t been able to score many TDs, but he has been heavily targeted as he’s Pitt’s only hope of moving the ball through the air. This isn’t an easy matchup, but Pitt should be trailing and he has double digit receptions in each of the past two weeks, as well as getting a few carries.

Pitt is typically a run heavy team, but their run game has suffered without Conner. Ollison has stepped into the role of lead back, but the problem is that this isn’t an easy matchup and his workload has been very volatile as sometimes Pitt gets their backup RBs involved and other times it’s the Ollison show. Given the matchup, I’ll just avoid this situation this week.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Tyler Boyd, Qadree Ollison

Stanford Cardinal at Colorado Buffaloes – O/U 60

Stanford

Stanford checks in with a team total of 36 points, which is pretty high for them. Christian McCaffrey was held in check by a fired up Washington State defense last week, but still managed 130 yards of total offense. However, prior to that he had 200+ yards of total offense in three of his previous four games. Colorado has really struggled stop the run as they’re allowing 5.2 YPC and the Stanford run game should dominate here. If you’re spending at RB, McCaffrey is my top option on the day. He will get vultured on the goal line by Remound Wright, but I think he breaks a long TD or two and gets into the endzone while also piling up his typical huge yardage.

At QB, Kevin Hogan doesn’t bring enough upside to the table for me and the same holds true for their WR. However, their TE Austin Hooper has scored in four of his last five games, and is one of the elite options at TE on FD.

Elite Options – Christian McCaffrey, Austin Hooper

Secondary Options – None

Colorado

The Stanford defense wasn’t great to begin the year but they’ve been much better of late, and they’re a team I typically like to avoid. Colorado is RBBC and Stanford always plays great run defense so stay away there. Stanford is more susceptible to the pass and Colorado does feature two very capable WR in Shay Fields and Nelson Spruce. However, they somewhat limit each other’s upside and I’m just not a big fan of this matchup. I’ve used their QB Sefo Liufau as a cheap QB in some spots this year as he’s a decent dual threat option, but this isn’t a week I’m looking to go that route.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers – O/U 56

Florida State

In terms of game watching this is the top game on the early slate. Florida State is in a must win, and Clemson is trying to hold on to their top spot in the Playoff rankings. In terms of fantasy potential it’s tougher as Clemson has been a very good defensive unit.

Dalvin Cook should be back for this one and he’s one of the elite RB in the country, however, Clemson has also been one of the elite run defenses. Given his price point, tough matchup, and his injury, I’m not looking to pay his price point this week.

Sean Maguire performed very well last week, and FSU isn’t tipping their hand as to whether he or Everett Golson will draw the start. I’m not looking to roster either one of them, but the starter does affect the FSU WR corp. Golson seems to have favored Kermit Whitfield more, whereas Maguire targeted Travis Rudolph a ton last week. I don’t love either, but I’d check in as to the FSU starter prior to rostering either.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Dalvin Cook

Clemson

Clemson is in a similar boat as FSU as this isn’t a great matchup. FSU has been very good against the run so I’ll be staying away from Wayne Gallman this week. However, their passing defense hasn’t been as good as it appears on paper. They haven’t faced many quality passing offenses, but coughed up a huge passing day to Brad Kaaya, and also allowed 300 passing yards to a run first QB in Lamar Jackson. Deshaun Watson has picked his game up recently and seems to have his eyes set on New York. I wouldn’t look his way for a cash game, but think he is in play for GPPs.

His top wide receiver is Artavis Scott but he’s been pretty volatile so I wouldn’t trust him in anything other than a GPP setting. On FD, Jordan Leggett has been one of the better TE options as he’s scored in five of his past six games. One additional potential GPP punt option could be Deon Cain who scored last week and had 90+ receiving yards in the previous two weeks. He’s almost minimum price and he could be the guy finally emerging as a secondary playmaker with Mike Williams out.

Secondary Options – Deshaun Watson, Artavis Scott, Jordan Leggett

Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers – O/U 60

Iowa

This game has a spread of 60 and Iowa has a team total of 33 points, which is high for Iowa. However, Iowa had a high team total last week as well, and just spread the ball around so there is no elite option here.

They are a run first team, but Jordan Canzeri should miss another game. That should open up opportunities for Akrum Wadley to get another start. He was decent last week, but Leshun Daniels got back involved with 13 carries and a TD. Wadley got more work with 19 carries, but this looks like it could be a time share until Canzeri gets back.

Indiana’s pass defense has been awful all year long, but this is a run first offense and C.J. Beathard has been trending downwards. I stupidly took a shot with him last in a GPP and he destroyed my lineup. He’s dirt cheap but highly risky. I’d be more likely to take a shot with one of the Iowa WR as a punt WR3 or Flex. As mentioned Indiana is allowing a boatload of passing yards, and Iowa did get back their big play threat Tevaun Smith last week from injury. This is his 2nd week back so he should continue to get more involved offensively so it wouldn’t shock me if he busted out with a long TD at minimum price. There’s not much volume here though so he’s a risky GPP only play.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Akrum Wadley, Tevaun Smith (GPP)

Indiana

This is a tough matchup for the Hoosiers as they draw a very stingy Iowa defense. I really like Jordan Howard as a RB, his price point is great and he should be getting healthy after a bye week. However, Iowa features a top 10 run defense so I’ll probably wait one more week, and I’d give him a shot in a GPP, if anything.

Iowa is more susceptible to the pass and Indiana should be trailing so a solid Indiana passing game might be in play. I wouldn’t touch their QB Nate Sudfeld on a 1 QB site but he’s still cheap on DK and has the ability to throw for 300 yards. He has two solid WR options in Simmie Cobbs and Ricky Jones and like Sudfeld, they continue to be very affordable. The matchup isn’t ideal so I won’t have a ton of exposure, but at their price points, I don’t mind them as salary savers.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jordan Howard, Nate Sudfeld (DK), Ricky Jones/Simmie Cobbs

Wisconsin Badgers at Maryland Terrapins – O/U 48

Wisconsin

This is another Fanduel only game and it’s another Big 10 game with a low total. Wisconsin draws another soft opponent against a bad Maryland team that hasn’t stopped the run or pass this year. The Badgers finally got their top RB, Corey Clement back last week. They eased him back in with 11 carries but he responded with 100+ rushing yards and three TDs. I’d expect his workload to jump above 15 carries this week and given the weak opponent I’ll have some exposure to him in tournaments.

With Clement out, the Wisconsin passing game showed signs of life earlier this year. However, with Clement back, I wonder if they will start to trend very run heavy again. For that reason, I wouldn’t look to Joel Stave and he doesn’t present much upside typically anyway. He does tend to force feed the ball to Alex Erickson, who has been very productive over his past four games. The problem is that his price point is getting too expensive for me on FD. Wisconsin also uses their TE frequently so Troy Fumagalli continues to be a viable option for as long as he continues to start for Traylor.

Elite Options – Corey Clement

Secondary Options – Troy Fumagalli

Maryland

I typically like to avoid the Wisconsin defense as they are a solid unit and Wisconsin plays at a slow pace. I also tend to avoid the Maryland offense as they just aren’t very good. Based on that this is a pretty easy fade for me, and the only only player worth a mention is Perry Hills, who has apparently morphed into a top notch running QB. He’s not going to be successful through the air, but he’s topped 100 rushing yards in three straight, including some tough competition (Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State). However, at his elevated price point, I’ll pass.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

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