CFB Grind Down: Week 10 - Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-08 15:58:36

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs – O/U 57

Kentucky

This is a matchup between two struggling offenses and there’s not a whole lot I’m excited about in this one. Kentucky has a pedestrian team total of 20 points, and will be without Stanley Boom Williams. That should open more carries for Mikel Horton and JoJo Kemp, with Horton listed as the starter. He’s very cheap on FD, but it’s tough to punt a valuable RB spot, whereas on DK he could factor in as a cheap flex. I don’t love the matchup as Georgia is solid defensively, but he did top 100 yards last week against Tennessee and should be in line for 15+ touches.

At QB, Patrick Towles will flash with a monster game every now and again, but he’s been unable to show any consistency. With this being a road game against a quality Georgia defense, I’ll pass. His top option at wide receiver has been Garrett Johnson, who has produced solid yardage of late, but inconsistent volume. Overall, outside of a possible Horton punt, there’s not a lot to see here.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mikel Horton, Garrett Johnson

Georgia

The wheels have come off at Georgia and rumors are rampant that Mark Richt will be out at the end of the year. It’s been a disastrous month as they’ve lost Nick Chubb, lost three football games, and continued to get terrible QB play. As of this writing, a starter at QB hasn’t been named, and I don’t really care who it is as they’ve all been terrible. Their poor QB play has really hurt a guy like Malcolm Mitchell who is actually pretty good, and the only option in the Georgia passing game worth any remote consideration.

Georgia does have a team total of 35 points here and with their passing game struggling, that should mean three TDs or so from this UGA ground game. That makes Sony Michel very interesting for me as his price has come way down due to Georgia’s struggles recently. I’m not saying he’s as good as Chubb, but I am saying I think the tough matchups with Missouri and Florida run defenses, have made the gap between Chubb and Michel look larger than it probably is. He was a five star recruit in his own right and has flashed big play ability. Florida smashed them, but prior to that he was averaging 24 carries per game in the two games without Chubb. Tennessee ran all over Kentucky last week and given UGA’s team total, Michel should be in line for a big game here. The one hesitancy here that causes some risk is that he broke his right hand last week against Florida. He’s expected to play through it and said he will just carry the ball with his left hand. If he struggles with a fumble early you wonder whether his carries could be limited. That’s a risk I’m willing to take in tournaments.

Elite Options – Sony Michel

Secondary Options – Malcolm Mitchell

Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators – O/U 37

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is a terrible offense that is heading to the Swamp to face an elite Florida defense. Their expected to score just one TD, which is probably too high, and I wouldn’t touch any of these guys if they were free.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Florida

This game carries a total of just 37 points, primarily due to Vanderbilt’s low team total, but Florida’s team total is under 30 points as well. The one thing Vanderbilt can do is play solid defense. With the Vanderbilt offense likely producing a lot of 3 outs, this UF offense should eventually wear them down however. Kelvin Taylor has consistently been getting 25+ carries a game, and has scored in three straight weeks. I don’t think he has immense upside, but the workload could carry him to a 100 yard and two TD game.

Outside of Taylor, the offense is tough to nail down. With Will Grier suspended, Treon Harris has stepped in as the starting QB. He has some running ability, but has been more of a game manager so the upside hasn’t been there. The only spot where he could be worth a peek is on DK as a QB2 as he’s just $5,000. The wide receivers have been inconsistent but Antonio Callaway has shown some big play ability and topped 100 yards in three straight games.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Kelvin Taylor, Treon Harris (DK)

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats – O/U 39

Penn State

This is a FD only game so luckily we only have to consider it one time as this game should have little fantasy appeal and has a total of just 39 points. Penn State’s team total is sitting at just and I’d primarily just fade this one. Saquon Barkley gets a heavy workload but his price is elevate and this matchup isn’t great so I’ll pass this week.

Christian Hackenberg has actually put together two solid fantasy weeks, but given this matchup and his lack of upside, I’ll keep on avoiding. Hackenberg’s improved play has been a boost to Chris Godwin, who has at least 76 receiving yards in three straight games, and DaeSean Hamilton has actually shown up some lately. If I’m rostering anyone from this game it would be Godwin, but I don’t love it.
Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Chris Godwin

Northwestern

Northwestern is a middling offense with a total under 18 and this Penn State defense has been solid. For whatever reason, Northwestern seems unwilling to ride their top RB, Justin Jackson, as he hasn’t topped 15 carries in a month and has been under 40 rushing yards in three straight games. He’s cheap but a matchup with a tough Penn State doesn’t look like the spot to bust out of his slump. Clayton Thorson has some running ability, but he’s a below average QB and I’d just avoid this offense.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers – O/U 79

Texas Tech

As has come to be the case, a game featuring Texas Tech has the highest total on the slate at 79 points. Tech is a fantasy gold mine as they play at a fast pace, throw the ball all over the field, and then play horrible defense, which leads to tons of shootouts. This week is expected to much of the same with Tech’s team total sitting above 35 points.

Patrick Mahomes price on DK at just $7,600 jumps off the page. He’s averaging 36 DK PPG on the season, and this West Virginia defense has struggled lately, particularly since they lost their All American safety. They’ve been lit up by the Baylor and TCU passing games, and Tech should have success through the air. The one worry would be that Mahomes has shown some home/road splits this season as he’s averaging 42 DK points at home, but just 28 on the road. I’m not putting too much stock into yet as it could be due to playing some of their harder defenses on the road.

Mahomes’ top target at WR is Jakeem Grant, who is coming off of a monster game. Like, Mahomes he’s shown the home/road splits, probably due to Mahomes’ struggles. His price is on the rise due to his huge game last weekend, and he’s shown volatility. Based on that I don’t think he’s a must play cash game guy, but he’s a guy I’ll have some GPP exposure to. If you can’t swing Grant’s tag and want a piece of a Tech WR, I’d look to Ian Sadler. The secondary Tech WR have been very unpredictable so it can be risky, but he’s healthy and is coming off of a big game last weekend.

It’s weird to say but their RB DeAndre Washington has continued to be a consistent performer in an Air Raid offense. He has at least 17 FD points in five of his past six games, and sees solid usage in the passing game as well. His price on FD is getting up there, but he’s still very affordable on DK so he’s a viable option there, and I don’t mind him as a contrarian play on FD. Their backup RB Justin Stockton is a big play threat, but his touches are volatile and relies on breaking a big play.

Elite Options – Patrick Mahomes, Jakeem Grant

Secondary Options – Ian Sadler, Deandre Washington

West Virginia

West Virginia is the lucky team of the week that gets to face the Texas Tech “defense”. For the second straight year, they continue to be an absolute train wreck and have now allowed FIFTY FIVE or more points in four of their past six games. I’m not a big fan of Skyler Howard as a QB, but unless he’s just firing balls into the dirt, this WVU offense should put up at least 40 points, which is their Vegas team total.

Speaking of Howard, DK really got aggressive with his pricing as he’s priced near Mahomes and Joshua Dobbs so he’s not a guy I can get behind on DK, unless it’s a GPP. His price is more playable on FD so that’s where I’d be more likely to take my GPP shots as you’re getting a bigger discount from the top tier QBs. Like I mentioned, I don’t think he’s all that great of a QB, but even average QBs can have huge days against this Tech defense.

Howard’s top target is Shelton Gibson who has scored in three straight games. Given the elite matchup, he’s a guy I’ll be getting some exposure to as I’ll have plenty of the Mountaineers sprinkled throughout my lineups. Outside of Gibson, the WVU passing game is unpredictable. Former QB David Sills actually jumped Jovon Durante on the depth chart, and both proceeded to drop balls against TCU, including Durante dropping two TDs. Sills hasn’t been awful lately, whereas Durante has been terrible. However, both are minimum price and given Tech’s ridiculous bad defense, I could see them getting loose for a long TD (if they can catch the ball). It’s a low dollar large field GPP play only though. Daikiel Shorts starts in the slot, but if I’m going that route I’d take my shot with Sills/Durante on the outside and hope they break a big one.

My favorite play from the WVU side and the guy I’ll have the most exposure to is Wendell Smallwood. Rushel Shell will see some carries as well, but Smallwood has been the better this year. Tech has been abysmal against the run allowing a ridiculous 5.8 YPC, and Smallwood has topped 100 rushing yards in four of his last five games. He’s an elite option and provides 100+ yards and multiple TD upside at a mid-range tag.

Elite Options – Wendell Smallwood, Shelton Gibson

Secondary Options – Skyler Howard, David Sills/Jovan Durante (GPP only)

Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels – O/U 56

Duke

UNC has shown some rapid improvement defensively but they’ve still struggled against the run as they’re allowing 205 rushing YPG. Duke is RBBC so I’m not looking at their RBs, but UNC’s weak run defense does bode well for Thomas Sirk. He’s been involved heavily in the running game again recently, and has produced two big fantasy outings in a row. The problem is that his recent big games have really juiced his price tag, which puts him in GPP only territory.

They don’t have a dominant WR but Max McCaffrey has 15 receptions and 180 receiving yards over his past two weeks so he’s in play as a PPR punt on DK.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Thomas Sirk, Max McCaffrey

North Carolina

North Carolina has a team total over 30 points, and their offense runs through Marquise Williams. He’s been quiet the past two weeks, but he’s shown 30 to 40 fantasy point upside. This is a rivalry game and we could see him take some more on his shoulders. He ran for almost 100 yards and two TDs in this matchup last week, and also threw for 270 yards and two TDs. Duke’s defense looks good on paper, but they’ve faced a lot of bad offenses, and this UNC offense is head and shoulders the best they have faced. In particular, Williams’ tag looks to low on DK, and I’ll get some exposure to him there.

At RB, UNC has finally started to lean on Elijah Hood more as he’s topped 20 carries in two straight games, and has at least 98 rushing yards in five of his last six games. At his price point he’s a solid option, although there are a few RB I have higher on my list.

I’m not scared of Duke’s high pass defense ranking as they’ve faced some terrible QBs this season. However, the problem with UNC is that there is no telling which WR is going to go off on a week to week basis. I’d lean towards Mack Hollins or Ryan Switzer if I’m choosing but they’re dart throws as they have no consistency on a week to week basis.

Elite Options – Marquise Williams (DK)

Secondary Options – Elijah Hood

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