CFB Grind Down: Week 10 - Early Slate (Page 3)

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-07 15:54:12

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan Wolverines – O/U 50

Rutgers

Along with a team like Vanderbilt, Rutgers is an easy fade. They’re a bad football team facing an elite defense, and could be without their top WR Leonte Carroo. I want nothing to do with them and the only way I’d list one of their players would be if I had a column for “Nuclear Options”.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Michigan

Overall, this is a very boring game and I wish FD had included a different one. Michigan does have a team total of 37 points, but the problem is figuring out where those points will come from. Jake Rudock is just a game manager at QB so he’s not an option. The Michigan TE Jake Butt is a solid part of their offense so he is very much in play. Amara Darboh has been their top wideout, but he hasn’t done much since the beginning of the year.

UPDATE – After digging into the UM passing game more, I’d lean to Jehu Chesson as the top WR option if you’re taking a GPP shot against the terrible RU secondary.

Outside of that, this is a wait and see situation as the Michigan RB situation is up in the air. Their starter De’Veon Smith is really banged up and is listed as questionable. If he goes, I don’t think we see a full workload so it’s probably a situation to avoid, despite the great matchup. However, if he sits then a guy like Drake Johnson becomes interesting. He’s averaged 5+ YPC in two of the past three weeks, and is looking good as he returns from injury.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jake Butt, Drake Johnson (if De’Veon Smith out), Jehu Chesson

Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars – O/U 72

Cincinnati

This is one of the few games on the slate with a total above 70 so it’s a great game to target. Cincinnati is typically one of the more annoying teams for me though as they’ve spread the ball around in the past and have played a ton of RBs. They’ll split carries among Tion Green, Hosey Willams and Mike Boone so it’s tough to hone in any RB.

Gunner Kiel is back at QB and has looked fully recovered from his concussion as he’s thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last two games. This UH defense is not the pushover that it used to be so while he’s a solid option, he’s not an elite option on FD. His price tag on DK is more palatable as a QB2.

In the past they’ve spread the ball around at WR as they have several very capable WR. That is still the case this year, but Shaq Washington has shown some solid consistency recently, and Chris Moore has shown some big play making ability so they are both on my radar.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Gunner Kiel, Shaq Washington, Chris Moore

Houston

The Cougars are luckily much easier to figure out than Cincinnati as it’s really the big three of Greg Ward, Jr., Kenneth Farrow, and Demarcus Ayers. Ward, Jr., has been quiet the past few weeks, but I think he gets back on tract this weekend and shows the upside he flashed earlier this season. Last week was a very difficult matchup against Vanderbilt, but Cincinnati is not near the defense he saw last week. They’re allowing 5.2 YPC on the season and are 80th in passing defense so he sets up as a top three play at QB this week. His top target at WR is Ayers, who also gets a few carries in the running game. He’s scored in each of the past few weeks, and UH will continue to scheme the ball into his hands. He fits in an as one of the top 10 or so wideouts on the slate.

At RB, Kenneth Farrow had a slow start to the year, but has scored nine TDs over his past five weeks. He can be TD dependent so if Ward takes over more running work in the red-zone, he can be a little risky at his elevated price point. The UH run game should have success against the weak Cincinnati run defense, the only question is whether its Ward or Farrow doing the damage. I’m leaning towards Ward, Jr., but certainly don’t mind Farrow.

Elite Options – Greg Ward, Jr., Demarcus Ayers

Secondary Options – Kenneth Farrow

Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss Rebels – O/U 58

Arkansas

I was honestly surprised to see this total come in at 58 points as I was expecting more along the lines of 50. Ole Miss is getting healthy defensively and can really stop the run so this sets up as a very difficult game for the run heavy Razorbacks. Alex Collins is one of the best in the nation, but given Ole Miss’ potent run defense, I’m not going to pay his price tag.

The Arkansas passing game can be hit or miss and isn’t one I like to rely on. In addition, Ole Miss’ pass defense isn’t a pushover. I’ll pass on their QB Brandon Allen, but Drew Morgan is cheap on DK, and Hunter Henry is in play at TE on FD. I don’t love either and may not have any exposure, but if Vegas is right about this total, one of them probably gets into the endzone.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Drew Morgan, Hunter Henry

Mississippi

Arkansas isn’t a great defense but they play at a slow pace offensively and have a very adequate defense. They’ve been solid against the run and Ole Miss hasn’t been able to get their running game on track. Akeem Judd is starting to come on so he’ll probably split carries with Jaylen Walton so I’d avoid this running game.

Chad Kelly is getting a ton of volume in the passing game, but there are better spots I’d prefer to attack at QB this week. He is throwing to one of the nation’s best in Laquon Treadwell and Treadwell has topped 100 yards receiving in four straight and five of his last six. The matchup isn’t ideal so I’m not sure I want to his tag, but his sheer talent puts him in GPP territory at a minimum on a weekly basis.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Laquon Treadwell

Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars – O/U 64

This game is kind of the opposite of Arkansas and Ole Miss in that I was expecting a higher total. It gives me a little pause, but there aren’t a ton of high scoring games in this slate so it’s a game I’ll still be targeting pretty heavily.

My favorite target on the Arizona State side is DeMario Richard. He returned to the lineup and looked healthy against Oregon as he had a big game with a rushing and receiving TD. He’s fairly priced and I’d expect 20+ touches from him against a defense that is allowing 202.9 rushing YPG on the season.

The ASU QB Mike Bercovici has caught fire recently and has two games with five TDs in his last three. He can run a little bit and if this game turns into a shootout then he should put up another big stat line. He’s not in my top 5 Qbs as it’s a deep slate, but he’s a guy I’ll likely get some GPP exposure too. It’s tougher to nail down his WR as DJ Foster has really disappointed and no one else has shown great consistency. Tim White has come on strong and Devin Lucien has also been a factor of late. It’s tough to nail down which one to target though so there is some risk.

Elite Options – Demario Richard

Secondary Options – Mike Bercovici, Devin Lucien, Tim White, DJ Foster

Washington State

Washington State was “held” to 354 yards passing last weekend in bad weather against a quality Stanford defense. Their passing attack has been rolling recently, and with Arizona State on tap, they should get back to throwing for 450+ passing yards. That means that Luke Falk is a top five option at QB and all three of Gabe Marks, Dom Williams, and River Cracraft are very much in play. I tend to target the dual threat QBs so I’ll give Ward and Boykin the edge over Falk, but his passing volume provides a ton of safety.

At WR, if you can swing Gabe Marks price tag then he’s the top option as he is Falk’s go to option in the red-zone, and a top 3 WR option on the day. Slots like Bralon Addison and Christian Kirk have had solid days against this ASU secondary so I’m liking Cracraft at his reduced price point. He’s shown volatility but I think he comes through with a solid day. Williams has continued to produce and I’ll have exposure to all 3 Wazzu wideouts.

If you need a cheap punt RB on DK then Gerard Wicks is only $3,400. He’s likely to get only 8 carries or so but he does get involved in the passing game so maybe he can come through with 15 or so DK points.

Elite Options – Luke Falk, Gabe Marks

Secondary Options – Dom Williams, River Cracraft, Gerard Wicks (DK punt)

TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys – O/U 77

TCU

TCU checks in with a team total above 40 points and this one is all about whether you can afford Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson. I think we saw last weekend that this Oklahoma State defense got fat on some lower level competition so the TCU offense should continue to roll this week. Boykin had a big day against this secondary last year with 450 total yards and three TDs, and I’d expect another great outing as he’s been incredibly good all year long. I certainly don’t mind paying for his security in cash games, but there are some solid QB options at a cheaper price point so I don’t think he’s a must in cash or GPP.

The same analysis really applies to Doctson, who has multiple TDs in three straight games. He’s right there with Corey Coleman as a dynamic game changing option at WR. If you can fit him in there then by all means do it. If you’re looking for cheaper exposure to the TCU game then take a look at Kolby Listenbee. He’s not a high volume guy, but he provides big play ability and is finally healthy after missing the majority of the season. Oklahoma State allowed plenty of big plays last weekend and if they pay to much attention to Doctson, Listenbee should be able to burn them deep.

At RB, Aaron Green has struggled of late and he hasn’t topped 15 carries recently. His price is way down, but given the decrease in volume, he’s a GPP only play, but he has flashed upside so I don’t mind taking a shot with him in a lineup if you’re playing multiple lineups.

Elite Options – Josh Doctson, Trevone Boykin

Secondary Options – Kolby Listenbee, Aaron Green

Oklahoma State

The Oklahoma State offense is very unpredictable so they’re all in GPP only territory for me. I’d completely avoid their running game as they’ve now failed against Kansas and Texas Tech and they just split carries. Mason Rudolph has been productive at QB, but when they get near the goalline JW Walsh will replace him as a running QB so there’s plenty of risk here.

At WR, they’ve really spread the ball around, but James Washington has been hot of late with TDs in three of his last four. I wouldn’t touch him on FD at his price point as the consistency hasn’t been there, but he’s still affordable on DK. David Glidden is their leading WR and has been their go-to possession WR type.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – James Washington, Mason Rudolph

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