CFB Grind Down: Week 10 - Early Slate (Page 4)

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-06 17:28:33

UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane – O/U 64

UCF

Unlike the FD only games, the DK only games actually have a lot of fantasy potential so be sure you pay attention to them on DK. UCF will be facing a porous Tulsa defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run or the pass. The problem is that UCF has been awful this year so there’s no primary playmaker to hang your hat on.

Justin Holman was solid last year but has struggled this year due to injury as well as his entire receiving corp graduating last year. His price is all the way down to $5,200 and with Tulsa’s struggles defensively as well as the fact UCF should be trailing, he could be worth a large field GPP dart throw. However, it’s risky as he hasn’t topped 18 DK points all year and the QB position is deep on DK. A better avenue to gain exposure to the UCF pass game may be Tre’Quan Smith. He has 12 receptions over the past two games and should have some opportunities against the weak Tulsa. secondary.

Tulsa really struggles against the run and the UCF running backs are cheap but they’ve been alternating between CJ Jones and Dontravious Wilson. Wilson had 18 carries last week, and 19 two weeks ago, but also has a 1 carry game sandwiched in there. If one of them gets 15+ touches they should reach value, but it’s a unclear situation right now.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Tre’quan Smith

Tulsa

Tulsa checks in with a team total of 40 points so they’re a team to dig into. UCF wasn’t terrible against UH a few weeks ago, and I’m just not a big fan of the talent level of Dane Evans. He still has some talented receivers in Keyarris Garrett, Joshua Atkinson and Justin Hobbs, but he’s missed Keevan Lucas. UCF has struggled against the pass so I don’t hate the play but I find myself looking more at his receivers than him.

Garrett threw up a dud last weekend, but he’ll have a solid bounce back opportunity this weekend. With Lucas out, he’s Tulsa’s top option and he’s shown the ability to have 40 DK point games this year. As far as the playability of Atkinson and Hobbs, it really depends on the health of Atkinson so that is a situation to monitor. Atkinson was hobbled last weekend so Hobbs stepped up. If Atkinson is feeling healthy, this is a nice price point on him though. The difficult part is that injury info from Tulsa has been hard to come by.

Both Zack Langer and D’Angelo Brewer returned last week and Tulsa took a run heavy approach, which is another reason I am a little leery of Evans. Brewer logged 21 carries and topped 100 rushing yards, while Langer continued to serve as a vulture and banged in three TDs. Both are cheap on DK so I think they’re both worth a look as value at RB is hard to come by.

Elite Options – Keyarris Garrett,

Secondary Options – Dane Evans, D’Angelo Brewer/Zack Langer, Joshua Atkinson/Justin Hobbs

South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers – O/U 57

South Carolina

The Gamecocks will be facing a Tennessee defense that has been pretty solid this year and have just a team total of 20 points. Their QB, Perry Orth, is dirt cheap on DK but it’s because he just doesn’t offer very much fantasy appeal. Most of his rushing yards last week came on one busted play by the A&M defense and he’s otherwise a guy who is going to be a game manger.

South Carolina does have a gamebreaker at WR in Pharoh Cooper. He struggled last week, however A&M has played surprisingly good pass defense this year, and prior to that game he had three straight 100 yard games. Tennessee’s pass defense hasn’t been great and with South Carolina expected to be trailing, they should be throwing often. My worry would be that I love the Tennessee running game, and there’s a chance they just dominate time of possession in this one. However, due to his struggles last week, Cooper’s price has dropped below $6,000, which is too cheap and puts him firmly in play.

Brandon Wilds is finally healthy and he’s looked over the past two weeks as he’s topped 119 yards in each game, including one against a solid Vanderbilt run defense. The Vols are allowing 4.3 YPC on the season so this is a slightly below average matchup, and with his price on the rise, I’ll likely be looking elsewhere.

Elite Options – Pharoh Cooper

Secondary Options – None

Tennessee

I absolutely love the Tennessee running game in this matchup, and will be grabbing some exposure to Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurd. They’ve had their moments this year, but they have been consistently great as Tennessee has really had a tough schedule to start the year. Their schedule finally lightened up last week, and they produced solid games. They would have been on their way to even bigger games, if not for a punt return and kick return TD in the third quarter that led to the Vols calling off the dogs early.

South Carolina was destroyed by Texas A&M’s dual threat backfield last weekend as A&M topped 300 rushing yards rushing, and Hurd is a much better back than Tra Carson, while Dobbs is a terrific runner. It wouldn’t surprise me if both topped 100 yards rushing in this one with each getting into the endzone.

As far as the passing game it’s been very unreliable so I’ll avoid the Tennessee WR, and one of Dobbs passing TDs actually went to Hurd last week.

Elite Options – Jalen Hurd, Joshua Dobbs

Secondary Options – None

UCLA Bruins at Oregon State Beavers – O/U 57

UCLA

Paul Perkins surprisingly returned last week and while he didn’t get the full work load he turned 16 touches into 150+ yards and two TDs. It doesn’t sound like he suffered any set backs so he should be in line for a bigger work load and this is a cheap price on him. Oregon State has been terrible this year and has really struggled to stop the run as they’re allowing 5.0 YPC and 194 rushing YPC so this is a great spot for Perkins.

Josh Rosen looks like he’ll be terrific in the future but in terms of fantasy potential he’s shown a little too much volatility for me. UCLA should be able to run the ball with ease here so his volume is up in the air. Some weeks he throws it 40+ times, others he’s in the 20’s so there’s safer options in my mind. One of Jordan Payton or Thomas Duarte likely has a good game here but they’ve alternated big games. I’ve always preferred Payton a little more so I’d give him the edge if choosing between the two.

Elite Options – Paul Perkins

Secondary Options – Jordan Payton, Thomas Duarte

Oregon State

Seth Collins is out so Nick Mitchell will continue to start at QB. He’s cheap but really lacks upside so I’ll pass. The Oregon State running game has been RBBC so that’s another situation to avoid. The only two potential options here are their two WRs Victor Bolden and Jordan Villamin. Mitchell is not the runner Collins is, but he’s a little better passer so it’s an upgrade for them. What did catch my eye was that Bolden got 7 carries last weekend as well as 7 receptions, so maybe Oregon State is making a concerted effort to get the ball into his hands more. Villamin brings more size to the equation and will be the deep threat and red zone threat between the two.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jordan Villamin/Victor Bolden

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