CFB Grind Down: Week 10 - Late Slate

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-08 15:58:36

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan varncass Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

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Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma Sooners – O/U 61

Iowa State

Elite Plays

None – There are a lot of teams on this slate who are big, big underdogs, and I really would not advise taking players from these teams, as there is enough value to take guys from the higher scoring teams. Iowa State has turned the ball over to Joel Lanning, and while he was not terrible in his first start, this seems to be a different monster with Oklahoma’s pass defense as one of the best in the country. Lanning has weapons, but there are better options on this slate with higher totals against bad defenses. I would not look to him at all.

Secondary Plays

Mike Warren ($6,900 FD, $5,600 DK) – The price has came way up, but it is hard to say that a guy who receives 30 carries per game is out of play. Warren is going to get all of the work he can handle in the early game against Oklahoma, who has allowed 150+ yards per game on the ground and should have a decent game. The problem is game flow is not going to go his way as a 25-point dog, and it isn’t like Oklahoma’s run defense is one of the worst out there. I am not using him, but Warren could be a GPP filler play.

Oklahoma

Elite Plays

Baker Mayfield ($9,300 FD, $8,000 DK) – The pure amount of points that Oklahoma is projected to score makes Mayfield one of my favorite weapons. He is one of the most expensive QBs on the slate, however he plays in an offense which is designed to pass the football and score a lot of TDs. The big spread scares me, but we have had mixed results with Mayfield having huge games in blowouts and also some duds where Perine and Mixon got into the mix. Mayfield may not be a 100% lock, but I think considering the upside and his floor in the air raid offense, he still makes a fantastic cash game and GPP play.

Sterling Shepard ($7,400 FD, $6,800 DK) – Sterling is Mayfield’s top target, but the targets do not seem to be there consistently this year. I think this is more of an aberration and less of the norm, as he had 11 receptions for 183 yards last game in a blowout against Kansas. Shepard’s price is priced like a mid-tier wideout when he should be priced like a top tier guy, and he makes a very elite play today on a slate where balance seems to be the way to go.

Secondary Plays

Samaje Perine ($7,600 FD, $7,000 DK) – It is like the fantasy sites were just itching to raise Perine’s price again after a couple of big games despite hardly any reason to do so. Let’s be real – this offense is not built around Perine this year, and despite leading in a ton of these games, Perine has only gone over 20 carries three times. The upside just is not there, as Mixon shares work with Perine; if you are chasing fantasy point totals, the last two games with two TDs might be misleading. That being said, I do not think you can ignore him here with Iowa State sporting a poor defense and Perine being the top option on the ground, I just think there are better, safer options.

Joe Mixon ($6,600 FD, $5,900 DK) – The price kind of blows here, but we are looking at a guy who gets his hands on the ball over 10 times per game and is electric when he does. He breaks a big play almost every week and we are basically guaranteed to see 15+ targets and carries against Iowa State. Mixon will continue to be low owned, so a couple of big plays from this back could win you a GPP.

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers – O/U 57

Michigan State

Elite Plays

Aaron Burbridge ($7,300 FD, $6,700 DK) – Burbridge is my top play today at WR, despite Shepard possibly having a higher upside, but that is in maybe 1% of the scenarios. One thing I know about MSU from watching all of their game is that Dantonio feeds the ball to his #1 WR, and this year, Burbridge fits the bill. Nebraska has one of the worst, if not the worst secondaries and there is absolutely no one there who can cover Burbridge today. Cook has been on the money with his throws and I would expect MSU as only a six-point favorite here to continue to throw the ball during the game. Burbridge is a fantastic cash option, as I think it is highly unlikely he ends with less than six catches and 100 yards, and his upside is 15 catches 200 yards and a TD.

Connor Cook ($8,400 FD, $6,700 DK) – I have said multiple times this year how I am not a Cook apologist, but he has been great in the last few weeks. I am very critical of QB production, but Cook has been on the money lately and Nebraska has been absolutely dreadful at defending the pass. This should actually be a close game in which Cook has to throw and I think he is in play for the first time this year. Load Cook up especially on DK with Burbridge and watch this MSU offense go to work, as you really do not want to use the running game.

Secondary Plays

None – Josiah Price is always an option on FanDuel, as he is a favorite of Dantonio’s in the end zone, but I really would shy away from this situation. I expect MSU to attack Nebraska through the air, and with the RB situation constantly up in the air, I would just fade that. If you really want a gamble, LJ Scott seems to be the guy; he is the most explosive and strongest back out of the backfield, but his price has been raised with his recent success.

Nebraska

Elite Plays

Jordan Westerkamp ($6,400 FD, $4,600 DK) – Westerkamp has been the top option for Armstrong this year and continues to be the best option for Nebraska in the passing game. He is a bit more affordable on DraftKings, but I think he is also in play on FanDuel against a Michigan State team who is weak in the secondary because of some injuries. Yes, they have gotten healthy over the bye, but the over/under on this game is still almost 60 with a small spread, and Westerkamp has a chance for one of his biggest games of the season against an MSU team allowing almost 270 yards passing per game.

Secondary Plays

Tommy Armstrong ($8,400 FD, $5,900 DK) – Armstrong is probably out of play on FD, but the price on DK is enticing. He has 20+ fantasy points in the last three games he has played, and is going up against a Michigan State defense which is lacking against the pass this year. His foot seems to be better here, and while I am not spending big money on him as a dog in this matchup, I do think he is going to continue to pass and connect with Westerkamp in this game — that they make a nice GPP stack together.

Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers – O/U 63

Navy

Elite Plays

None – Even though I think there are two viable plays on Navy here, I am mostly going to be fading them in my lineups except for a few GPPs. The big volume players on this offense are boom or bust and just cannot be trusted here.

Secondary Plays

Keenan Reynolds ($8,700 FD, $7,500 DK) – Reynolds is a top QB in the nation and I do not blame either site for including this game despite it being one of the “out of conference” games. Reynolds has been a monster in the Navy triple option for a while now and continues to put up massive numbers. The problem here is that Memphis is actually a solid rush defense, only allowing 118 yards per game (that will rise here), but I am still wary of Navy as a seven-point dog.

Chris Swain ($5,600 FD, $5,400 DK) – Swain is the main target besides Reynolds, as he is the guy consistently receiving over 10 carries per game. The price is a bummer here, but we can still get some value for him in GPPs where he will be very low owned.

Memphis

Elite Plays

Paxton Lynch ($9,500 FD, $9,000 DK) – The price here is expensive. I am not sure you can reasonably take him and feel that great about your lineup, as you are going to have to take a couple of min salary guys to make up for it. The thing is, that might be necessary with a slate starved for consistent scoring. Navy’s pass defense is just a bit worse than the rush defense, and with the over/under being one of the highest games of the day, there certainly should be guys to target here.

Secondary Plays

Mose Frazier ($6,600 FD, $6,400 DK) – I think this is a fair price on both sites, as on DraftKings, one has more to gain by the PPR benefit of having Frazier catch seven balls per game. That being said, I still like Anthony Miller and Alan Cross and can definitely see them getting theirs; however I think even on FanDuel where PPR is only .5, Frazier is still in play.

Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies – O/U 59

Auburn

Elite Plays

Jovon Robinson ($4,500 FD, $3,000 DK) – I am a little bit worried the carries go back to Peyton Barber after Robinson out-carried him 18 to 8 in the last game, but I really think no matter what, Malzahn is going to incorporate Robinson into the game. He is by far the more electric back out of the backfield and Barber really has not done much this year to warrant keeping the job outside of the four-TD game, which anyone could have achieved in his situation. With value hard to come by, I think we can look at Robinson and be fairly confident he will make value against a Texas A&M team that gives up 200 yards on the ground each week. Plug Robinson in and spend up elsewhere.

Secondary Plays

Ricardo Louis ($5,800 FD, $5,300 DK) – I really like Louis’ price on FD where he is too cheap for being the #1 receiver on a high scoring team here. Louis has been somewhat consistent despite horrible QB play, and while White brings no upside to this offense, Louis continues to have solid game after solid game. I much prefer Robinson, especially if it is confirmed he is starting, but Louis makes a solid gamble with his complement of targets.

Texas A&M

Elite Plays

Kyler Murray ($7,600 FD, $7,400 DK) – Murray was fantastic against South Carolina, rushing for 150 and a score and completing 20-of-28 passes. We have likely seen the upside of the passing game diminished here because of the amount of runs that Murray will do, however he was able to get Reynolds, RSJ, and Kirk the ball last Saturday. Auburn is in the bottom of all defenses in the FBS and should allow Murray to continue his hot start here = he has a great shot at value despite the large price increase.

Secondary Plays

Ricky Seals-Jones ($5,100 FD, $4,000 DK) – I imagine a lot of people are going to be on Kirk with a game basically expected to end 34-27, but I think he is overpriced and I would rather take a chance on Seals-Jones or Reynolds. Kyle Allen loved Kirk, but this is a three-receiver team and both of the other guys seemed to have a leg up in the preseason before the games started. I will go cheaper here and gamble that the connection between Murray and Seals-Jones is going to skyrocket RSJ’s price. Another problem is that with Murray’s running ability, this team will not be throwing 45 times per game anymore, so the receivers’ upsides are limited.

Utah Utes at Washington Huskies – O/U 44

Utah

None – This game has the lowest total on the board at 44 points, and with Washington’s defense being solid all around, I really think there is no reason to use anyone here from Utah. Yes, Booker is a stud and will receive a lot of carries, but they have been dialed back a bit in the last couple of weeks and this just is not a good matchup. I think Freeman is essentially guaranteed a better game around the same price point, and I would spend money elsewhere. Other than Booker, there really is not anyone to like on this Utah team receiving-wise, and I would just pass this game up with two run-centered offenses who have good defenses.

Washington

Elite Plays

None – Washington was very good against Arizona in the last game but come up against a Utah team here with a top defense. I would not advise against a Browning play, as you attack the Utah defense through the air, but I think there are better options out there. Dewayne Washington and Gaskin will most likely split carries and their upside is limited against one of the best run defenses in the country. This seems like a fade game with a 44 over/under.

Secondary Plays

Joshua Perkins ($3,500 FD, $3,600 DK) – I would not use Perkins on DK, but I think he is a viable play at TE on FanDuel. There are again a lack of solid options, but Perkins continues to be involved in the offense and despite the low total should still get some catches. Anderson and Price seem like better plays to me, but Perkins is viable too.

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