CFB Grind Down Week 11 - Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-15 18:31:46

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans – O/U 55

Maryland

As we saw last weekend, this Michigan State defense is not the same defense as year’s past, and they are really struggling against the pass. However, they’ve continued to be solid against the run allowing just 3.7 YPC. The problem for Maryland is that their stating QB Perry Hills is a run first QB so they don’t profile as a team that can take advantage of the Spartan’s weakness. Hills was benched last week for Caleb Rowe, but he is expected to remain the starter and Rowe is not any good either. Hills has shown some big running upside in previous weeks as he ran for over 100 yards against some tough run defenses. On a site like DK where the salary cap is incredibly tight, I could see him a as a potential punt, but I’m not a believer quite yet and will be staying away.

In addition their leading WR Levern Jacobs has just 320 receiving yards on the year. He was listed as a game time decision last weekend but played and scored a TD so if you really need salary cap relief he is basically minimum price around the industry. However, given his poor QB play, it’s not a play I would feel very secure about.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Levern Jacobs (GPP longshot)

Michigan State

Connor Cook has now thrown for over 300 yards in four straight games and draws a quality matchup with a Maryland defense that has struggled against the pass. I don’t mind him but I typically like to target a dual threat QB or a QB in an Air Raid passing attack, and Cook is neither.

However, Cook’s recent play has also lead to big games from Aaron Burbridge, and he’s one of the top options on the board at WR. He’s topped 100 yards in four straight games and seven of nine overall, and has at least 8 receptions in each of his past four games. Against this weak Maryland secondary, he should continue to roll as Cook’s favorite target. Macgarrett Kings, Jr. has emerged opposite Burbridge and has quietly scored a TD in three of the past four weeks. With Burbridge garnering lots of attention, he should continue to get solid opportunities and is in play as a cheap WR3 or flex in tournaments, but he doesn’t have my trust for cash games yet. At TE, Josiah Price, doesn’t put up big yardage totals, but is one of Cook’s favorite targets in the redzone. On a site like FD that requires a TE, he’s in play for TD upside.

The RB situation is a mess so if you’re looking to attack this running game then you’re going to have to monitor the news. Madre London has been injured but dressed out last weekend before ultimately not playing. It sounds like he’s not all the way back yet, and LJ Scott also appears to be dealing with a shoulder injury. That being said this MSU backfield has been tough to predict all year. Gerald Holmes did get the start last week and had 22 carries, but if London returns this will likely be a split backfield.

Elite Options – Aaron Burbridge, Josiah Price (FD)

Secondary Options – Connor Cook, Macgarrett Kings, Jr., Gerald Holmes (if Madre London out)

Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini – O/U 55

Ohio State

The Buckeyes head on the road and have a solid total of 36 points. The spread on this one is also only 17 points so we should get four quarters of action out of Ohio State’s big guns. J.T. Barrett was suspended last week, but is expected to be back in the starting lineup this weekend. As long as he’s confirmed as the starter, he’s one of the elite options at QB as dating back to last year, he’s put up huge numbers whenever he’s started. Over his last two starts, he has nine total Tds, and while this Illinois defense is improved, they aren’t equipped to slow J.T. down.

*Ezekiel Elliott*has topped 100 rushing yards in every game this season and has a TD in six straight games, which makes him one of the elite cash game options on the slate. I do think the presence of Barrett somewhat limits his upside so I don’t like him quite as much for tournaments.

At WR, the only consistent producer has been Michael Thomas, who has scored in all but three games this season. He doesn’t provide a ton of upside as he’s only topped 100 receiving yards twice, but he’s a potential cheap TD source. I’ll pass on Braxton Miller as the upside just hasn’t been there all season long.

Elite Options – J.T. Barrett, Ezekiel Elliott

Secondary Options – Michael Thomas

Illinois

Illinois draws a tough matchup with the Buckeyes who have played elite pass defense and solid run defense. Wes Lunt has been under 200 passing yards in each of the past two passing games, and isn’t a guy that should be on the radar. In general, this offense is one I’d mostly avoid as there just isn’t much upside against this defense. However, Josh Ferguson and Geronimo Allison are cheap on DK and offer PPR upside. Ferguson returned from injury last week and put up a big day with 170 total yards and a TD. However, that came against a weak Purdue defense. He is very cheap around the industry and maybe he can rack up some receptions as Illinois should be trailing throughout. That type of thought process could also apply to their top wide receiver Geronimo Allison, who has struggled of late, but has been heavily targeted all season long. Overall, due to the difficult matchup, this is primarily a stay away, but if you’re going there, I would do so on a PPR site like DK.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Geronimo Allison, Josh Ferguson

Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers – O/U 52

Georgia

This has also been one of my favorite rivalry games to watch, but unfortunately both teams have really struggled this season. Georgia’s struggles have come due to the loss of Nick Chubb, as well as terrible QB play all season long. That terrible QB play will continue this weekend so I’ll be staying far away from the Georgia passing game. Malcolm Mitchell is a solid target at WR, but he’s really limited due to their weak QB play.

That being said Vegas expects Georgia to score 25 points here, and if that is the case then that should mean another quality outing from Sony Michel. He played through a broken hand last weekend, and looked fine as he ran for 165 yards and a TD. Auburn has struggled against the run this year allowing 191 rushing YPG and 5.0 YPC so the matchup is certainly there. His ceiling is somewhat limited due to his poor offense so I don’t love him as a tournament option, but at his mid-range price point, he’s a quality cash game play that should be in line for 20+ carries and another 100 yard rushing day.

Elite Options – Sony Michel

Secondary Options – Malcolm Mitchell

Auburn

Auburn’s QB situation is up in the air as it could be either Sean White or Jeremy Johnson drawing the start. Johnson started last weekend for the injured White, but both have been game managers recently so there’s not much upside, regardless of who starts. Georgia has been solid against the pass, but if you’re looking to get a piece of the Auburn passing attack then Ricardo Louis is their top option, and does offer some big play ability.

The Auburn offense has revolved around their running game, and while Georgia has played solid run defense, Auburn will lean on their running game and has a team total of 26 points. Peyton Barber started the year strong, but got banged up, and Jovon Robinson has come on very strong over the past two weeks. Robinson has run very well, and had 27 carries en route to a big game last weekend. Barber has played the last two weeks, and the question is whether he’ll continue to get a larger workload as he gets healthier. Robinson is still very cheap on both sites so I think he’s in play for tournaments, but I’m still a little leery of Peyton Barber getting back involved here.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Jovon Robinson, Ricardo Louis

Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks – O/U 46

Florida

The Florida offense has really come down to earth since the suspension of Will Grier, and new QB Treon Harris has just been a game manager. He’s a guy I’d largely avoid, but he is dirt cheap on DK so if you’re desperate for a cheap QB2 in tournaments then you could throw a dart at him as South Carolina has really struggled defensively, and he does offer some running ability. Florida’s wide receivers have been difficult so they are very risky, but Antonio Callaway and Demarcus Robinson have been their top two options on the season.

My preference from this Gator offense lies with Kelvin Taylor, and I’m really liking him as a mid-range play. He’s been Florida’s workhorse back and has scored at least one TD in every game but one this season. South Carolina’s run defense has been one of the worst in the nation as they’re allowing 5.3 YPC and 208 rushing YPG. Given Florida’s 27 point team total, I think there’s a good shot that he finds the endzone twice this weekend.

Elite Options – Kelvin Taylor

Secondary Options – Treon Harris (DK)

South Carolina

Florida has been a top 10 pass defense on the season, as well as a top 20 rush defense so this is a very tough spot for the South Carolina offense. They have a team total of just 19 points, which could be a little optimistic, so there’s just not a lot to love here. Brandon Wilds has taken over the load at RB, but I’ll stay away from the UF run defense. They do have a game breaking WR in Pharoh Cooper, but in this kind of matchup, there’s just not a ton of upside. Their QB Perry Orth is just a guy and definitely isn’t a guy I’d look to in this matchup.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs – O/U 71

Kansas

Kansas finds themselves as 45 point underdogs in this one with a team total of just 13 points. They’re one of the worst teams in the entire country, and a team to scratch off your list each and every week and just move on.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

TCU

The big news here is that news is coming out of TCU that Josh Doctson is expected to play this weekend, which hurts the prospects of guys like Kolby Listenbee and KaVontae Turpin. I personally find it very surprising that TCU would risk this against lowly Kansas, and Gary Patterson has been a guy who has been very coy with injuries in the past. This is a situation I’d continue to monitor up until kickoff, and luckily for us this is an early kick so we should get some word as to whether Doctson is indeed at least suited out. If he’s a full go then he’s an elite option against this KU secondary that is dead last in the nation in passing defense. I do have concerns about whether he would be limited if he does play so it’s a tough spot. Ideally, he rests this week and we get to fire up Turpin and Listenbee, who are great values everywhere except for DK. Listenbee is the home run threat and could see a few more deep balls come his way if Doctson sits, while Turpin operates out of the slot, and racked up seven receptions in Doctson’s absence last weekend.

UPDATE – It was brought to my attention that I overlooked Shaun Nixon. He also stepped out of the slot last week with 9 receptions for 146 yards. He’s a former 4 star recruit that was originally committed to A&M before flipping to TCU. He’s listed as a RB but is getting his work in the slot and is another guy who should see a boost if Doctson is limited/and or sits out.

Regardless of whether Doctson suits up, Trevone Boykin is an elite option, and should roll over this KU defense. He’ll likely only play 2 to 2.5 quarters due to a blowout. However, given the explosiveness of this TCU offense combined with the defensive sieve that Kansas is, he could easily put up five total TDs before hitting the bench as TCU has a team total of 58 points, which is highest on the day.

If you’re running multiple lineups, I’d look to get exposure to both Boykin and Aaron Green as one of them likely has a monstrous day. Green just hasn’t been involved much offensively lately, but this could be a spot where TCU looks to get him going, and KU is allowing 5.8 YPC. On a site like FD, he’s playable in all formats as he’s very cheap, but on DK where his price is up, I’d reserve him for GPP only.

Elite Options – Trevone Boykin, Aaron Green (FD), Kolby Listenbee/KaVontae Turpin (if Josh Doctson out)

Secondary Options – Josh Doctson (elite Option if 100% healthy)

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