CFB Grind Down: Week 11 - Late Slate

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-15 20:05:18

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan varncass Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

With a ton of games on this one, especially on DK and college hoops starting this week, the breakdowns will be just a little bit shorter than usual as I try to get everything done.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Memphis Tigers at Houston Cougars – O/U 71

Memphis

Elite Plays

Anthony Miller ($6,800 FD, $5,700 DK) – Miller is the guy that Lynch looks to in the red zone, and he has scored a TD in four straight and five of six. He is also being looked at now in the red zone as a rusher, which increases the value he has. He has not gone over 100 yards in two games, but still remains one of Lynch’s favorite targets. His price is a bit too low for a game where Memphis will need to throw on a weak Houston defense.

Secondary Plays

Paxton Lynch ($8,900 FD, $8,600 DK) – Lynch is only a secondary play for me on this slate, as I would like to spend up on his counterpart in this game or a couple of other players. Lynch definitely has the ability to go off for the highest total, but Memphis has been doing a better job running the ball lately and Lynch’s TD totals have been down. He is GPP only for me at this high price point.

Mose Frazier ($6,200 FD, $5,900 DK) – Frazier does not get the TDs, but he makes a fantastic grab on DK where his price is still fairly cheap. Frazier has a nice floor of 10 DK points with the receptions that he gets and should continue to rack up receptions in a game where Memphis has to throw to keep up. This game has a huge total and while Houston’s rush defense is stout, Memphis should find the way through the air.

Houston

Elite Plays

Greg Ward Jr ($9,000 FD, $8,500 DK) – Not the highest priced QB on the slate, Ward makes one of the top overall plays today. He is going to rush 15-20 times with upside for 100 yards and a couple of scores and will also throw the same amount of times with major upside through the air. He has so many ways to get you points that 25 points is his floor and 50-60 is the ceiling depending on how close Memphis can keep this game. Ward is a top fantasy QB and you need exposure to him.

Demarcus Ayers ($6,400 FD, $5,500 DK) – I am back on the Ayers bandwagon today after assuming he would struggle for the last couple of games. Memphis’ run defense has only allowed 140 yards per game this year, and while Farrow should continue to get fed the ball, I think Ayers will be able to take care of a pass defense which has allowed 290 yards per game through the air. Ayers is really the only target that Ward consistently goes to, so he has a high floor as well.

Secondary Plays

Kenneth Farrow ($7,300 FD, $6,300 DK) – Farrow is a little bit more expensive than I would like, but Houston is going to feed him the ball, maybe even to the point where he has 30 carries again and he carries very little risk with those numbers. With all of the great options, the pricing is a little bit high here, but you cannot ignore a guy on a great offense getting that many touches.

Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers – O/U 54

Arkansas

Elite Plays

None – Surprisingly to me, the spread is only 7 in this one, but still I am not liking anyone on Arkansas too much in this spot. Allen’s price has skyrocketed on FanDuel where he is unplayable at $8,300, and Morgan is not cheap either at $6,300. I am off of the Arkansas running game as they have been passing a lot more this year.

Secondary Plays

Brandon Allen ($5,400 DK) – I am not even mentioning his price on FanDuel, because I would never use him there at that price. On DK though, if you need a value QB, there is some merit for using Allen. If LSU has any weakness in their defense, it is probably the pass, and Allen is going to have to throw late likely being down. He has been the comeback machine lately, and while he is not my favorite play, I think you could get through with 20 points from him on DK.

LSU

Elite Plays

Leonard Fournette ($9,400 FD, $9,200 DK) – Fournette is still going to rob you of almost 20% of your salary cap, but he should be back in play here against an Arkansas team that LSU should beat and run out the clock. Fournette is not my favorite play, as Arkansas has a solid defense, but he is somewhat matchup proof and is the best back in the nation (although Henry had something to say about that last week). He is not the massive ownership guy he was before, but his price has gone down and he still has 200 and 4 TD upside.

Malachi Dupre ($5,000 FD, $3,500 DK) – I am coming around a bit on the LSU receivers, as they had a few good games before the Alabama disaster. Dural is the bigger play guy, but Dupre is also a big play guy but a better possession receiver and is cheaper. I am a bit wary of Dural and would only use him in a GPP, but I think there is merit for using Dupre against an Arkansas pass defense allowing 280 yards per game and dragging their solid rush defense down.

Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal – O/U 69.5

Oregon

Elite Plays

Darren Carrington ($6,900 FD, $5,800 DK) – Carrington’s price has risen, but he is still the best WR on this Oregon team which has found a resurgence in the passing game with Adams coming into his own under center. They do not have the greatest matchup here, but they should have to throw if they are down in the game, and this is setting up for a big game from Carrington. Stanford’s defense has been great lately, but the Oregon offense is a machine when running properly.

Secondary Plays

Vernon Adams Jr ($8,200 FD, $8,100 DK) – I was really sour on Adams at the beginning of the year, but he has been great in his last couple of starts and has really made this offense much better. They are relying less on Freeman, who is a bit too expensive for my liking against a top rush defense in Stanford, and considering game flow, I think Adams is going to have to throw.

Stanford

Elite Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($8,700 FD, $8,400 DK) – I do not like Freeman on this slate, as I would much rather have McCaffrey. Oregon’s defense is one of the worst in the country, and even though they are terrible in pass defense, the rush defense is not great either. McCaffrey is going to touch the ball about 30 times and if he can avoid getting vultured by Remound, should rush his way to a monster fantasy total in this one, especially since Stanford projects to be leading near the end of the game.

Secondary Plays

Austin Hooper ($4,100 FD, $4,000 DK) – Hooper is the best TE on FanDuel and it is not close. He has scored a TD in five of six games and Oregon has one of the worst defenses at defending any sort of pass in the nation, giving up almost 320 yards per game. They were better against Cal, but Stanford should be able to throw at will. I would think twice about using Hooper on DK where there are some other WRs under 4k who might be better options.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Cincinnati Bearcats – O/U 76

Tulsa

Elite Plays

Keyarris Garrett ($7,300 FD, $6,700 DK) – Do we have an issue with this Tulsa passing attack? Possibly, but Garrett is still the best receiver on this team despite being shut down. Lucas’ absence is really hurting these guys and Tulsa is going more towards the running game, but they are going to have to pass here against a great Cincinnati offense, and one that projects to be in the lead for most of the game. Garrett’s two previous poor games will likely drive the masses away but he has 10-catch, 250-yard upside in this one against an average Cincy defense.

Ramadi Warren ($5,100 FD, $4,100 DK) – Watch the news on Langer closely, as he sat out the last game and Warren got most of the carries and turned that into a MONSTER fantasy day. D’Angelo Brewer will also get some work, but I see no reason that Tulsa does not give Warren a shot to run with the job after what he did against UCF. Granted, Cincinnati is not UCF, but they still allow almost 200 yards per game on the ground and Warren could be the steal of the day despite having game flow against him.

Secondary Plays

Dane Evans ($7,500 FD, $7,400 DK) – Houston, do we have a problem here? It sure seems that way as the passing attack has been riddled with injuries allowing defenses to key in on Garrett and not allow Evans any easy throws. Atkinson should be back to full strength this week giving Evans three great options again and we could see a bounce back. The problem is, do we trust Evans anymore? The run game did the damage against UCF and this is two games in a row with a poor passing total against a middle of the road defense here.

Joshua Atkinson ($6,600 FD, $5,100 DK) – I love his price on DK, but would take a wait and see approach on FD. He has struggled with Evans’ struggles and missing some time with injury but could be the #1 option on this team when 100% healthy. The price is right here, just the issue is Tulsa might continue to rush the ball.

Cincinnati

Elite Plays

Gunner Kiel ($8,800 FD, $8,000 DK) – I do not mind the price here especially against a Tulsa defense allowing 303 yards per game. Kiel is going to sling the ball all over the field here especially to his two best wideouts in Chris Moore and Shaq Washington and we should see a huge fantasy total if he plays the entire game. Tulsa has just enough offense to keep this thing interesting as they did against Oklahoma earlier in the year and Cincinnati is going to pass a lot.

Shaq Washington ($6,200 FD, $6,100 DK) – Washington continues to rack up the catches for Cincinnati and despite the lack of yards is the safest option on the Bearcats in this game. He does have TD upside and with Kiel throwing the ball 40-50 times in this game we should see another 8 catches, 80 yards and a TD from Shaq.

Secondary Plays

Chris Moore ($6,200 FD, $5,400 DK) – Moore is a solid play as well, but he has less of a PPR floor and more of a long catch TD upside. Moore is a better play on FD but he is the same price as Washington and if you are going to go with Kiel in a GPP, you might want to stack both guys. Moore is an all or nothing type guy and should catch a 70-yard TD this week.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes – O/U 45

Minnesota

None – There are too many other options on this slate to play with this game. The game has one of the two lowest totals on the board and Iowa is an extremely solid defensive team being one of the top-15 defenses in the nation. Leidner and Brooks are the two guys who seem like the most likely to be played and possibly KJ Maye or Lingen at the TE spot, but I just do not like this as Iowa could potentially shut out this team.

Iowa

None – The lowest total of the day brings almost no fantasy potential. Iowa’s plays came mostly from their RB corps when other guys were injured as Canzeri was great, and Daniels was great when the other guy was injured and then when both were injured, Akrum Wadley became a play. The problem here is that Wadley is now questionable, Daniels looks good to play as does Canzeri. All three guys are fairly expensive and if we get a three-way split, all of the value is gone. If Wadley sits, I could see some value in Canzeri or Daniels but this looks to me like a fade situation.

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