CFB Grind Down: Week 12 - Early Slate - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-20 21:50:34

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami (FL) Hurricanes – O/U 56.5

Georgia Tech

This is another DK only game and the triple option attack of the Yellow Jackets will face a cupcake Miami run defense that is allowing 5.6 YPC (122nd) and 219 rushing YPG. However, outside of their QB Justin Thomas, the Georgia Tech running game has been virtually impossible to predict. To make matters worse, Paul Johnson has indicated he may try to get backup QB Matthew Jordan some playing time against Miami. Given that, Thomas is a GPP only dart throw, but the matchup against a poor run defense is certainly there and he has the ability to rip off a big day in the running game.

Outside of Thomas, this entire run game has been a mess. Clinton Lynch has some big play ability from the A back position but his season high in carries is 8. The best position to target from this backfield is their starting B-Back. However, who that will be is up in the air. Patrick Skov was the guy to start the year, then Marcus Marshall took over, and last game it was Marcus Allen. Marshall’s shown the most upside but he hit the bench due to fumbles. They’re battling it out at practice to see who will start so this is a situation to monitor to see if a starter is named prior to kick. With Miami’s porous run defense there is some upside here and it sounds like it will be Allen or Marshall to grab the start.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Justin Thomas, Marcus Allen/Marcus Marshall

Miami

Miami has been a trainwreck this year and were demolished by UNC. Vegas expects them to at least hang around in this one as they’re facing a very average Georgia Tech squad. I do worry about Georgia Tech running the ball effectively against Miami’s terrible run defense, and dominating time of possession in this one so there’s no player I love. Joseph Yearby has been unable to find the endzone, but is producing solid yardage total. With this game expected to be closer, he should see more volume and Georgia Tech is allowing 4.8 YPC on the season. My primary issue is his price tag, which is still over $6,000 on DK for some reason.

With Miami getting blown out of the water recently, they’ve taken to the air and Brad Kaaya has produced respectable yardage totals. This is an average at best matchup though as Georgia Tech checks in 31st in passing yards allowed per game. He does have some solid WR and Stacy Coley in particular has some big play potential, but overall there’s no huge need to get a piece of this Miami passing attack.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Joseph Yearby, Stacy Coley

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Florida International Golden Panthers – O/U 66

Western Kentucky

This is the other DK only game and features some solid fantasy potential as Western Kentucky games have been a great target this season. They feature one of the top passing offenses in the entire country, and are led by Brandon Doughty, who has thrown 34 passing TDs and is on his way to another 4,000+ passing yard season. He’s been somewhat quiet of late in terms of yardage and attempts, but I don’t expect that to continue. He has continued to find the endzone as he has at least 3 passing TDs in each of his past eight games, and is right there with Deshaun Watson as the top QB on the slate.

It sounds like Tyler Higbee will miss another game so Taywan Taylor and Jared Dangerfield should continue to be Doughty’s favorite targets. Both are very fairly priced and typically catch 6+ balls a game. I’ll give the slight edge to Taylor but both are terrific options in all formats. Dropping down a level, Nicholas Norris is just $4,000 and has shown 30 point DK upside. He’s not as dependable as Taylor or Dangerfield but that is the type of upside that we’re looking for in tournaments.

Anthony Wales missed the first part of the year with an injury, but hasn’t missed a beat since returning. He’s topped 47 DK points twice, and has topped 100 rushing yards in four of the past five weeks. FIU is 90th in rushing yards allowed per game so he’s a top 5 option at the position if you’re spending.

Elite Options – Brandon Doughty, Taywan Taylor, Jared Dangerfield, Anthony Wales

Secondary Options – Nicholas Norris

FIU

This game seems to have been randomly included and FIU hasn’t appeared on many slates this season. Western Kentucky plays at a very high pace, and doesn’t have a great defense so there should be some value here. I honestly haven’t seen them play this year and am going to try to watch some highlights this weekend. The one player I have seen is their TE Jonnu Smith who is their leading receiver, but he is out with an injury. With Smith out, there should be more usage to go around and Thomas Owens has been very productive this season. He’s scored a TD in seven of his last eight games, yet checks in with a price point of just $4,000 on DK. Given the weak WKU pass defense and high pace, he looks to be a great value on this slate.

I did see some of Alex McGough last season and he was very unimpressive. However, he was just a freshman, and based on his production this year, he’s made solid strides in his second year under center. He’s also seeing a plenty of volume as he’s topped 37 passing attempts seven times this season. He’s thrown up two duds his his last three performances, which is worrisome, but given the matchup and cheap price point, he fits in nicely as a cheap QB2 for GPPs on DK.

Their RB Alex Gardner is similar to McGough in that he was having a solid year, but was terrible in his last outing. On the season, he’s received a ton of work in the passing game and typically gets around 18 carries per game. The 9 carries last game is a bit of worry, but I haven’t been able to find any indication of injury so I’ll chalk it up as being the result of Marshall hammering FIU. Game flow could be a concern here, but he’s produced in the passing game, so he’s a guy I’ll work into some lineups at just $4,700.

Elite Options – Thomas Owens

Secondary Options – Alex Gardner, Alex McGough

Arizona Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils – *O/U *

Arizona

The spread and total on this are still TBD as the status of Arizona QB Anu Solomon is up in the air, as is Nick Wilson. Typically, the Arizona backfield has been a great position to target but Wilson hasn’t been able to stay healthy this year, and even if he returns he’s likely to share carries with Jared Baker. I’ve seen that he is closer to doubtful, but I’ve also seen tweets indicating he’ll be able to return. ASU has also been a very tough defense to run on as they’re allowing just 3.3 YPC and 107 YPC. Based on those factors, this is likely a situation to avoid unless Wilson is ruled out.

While the Arizona State run defense has been very good, their pass defense has been another story as they’re allowing 325 YPG, which is 127th out of 128 teams. After some struggles in the middle portion of the year, Solomon has been terrific over his past two games. Unfortunately, he left the last game with a concussion so his status is in doubt. If we get word that he is cleared then he’s a great option at just $6,200 against one of the nations’ worst secondaries. If he’s ruled out then Jerrard Randall should draw the start. The problem with Randall is that he’s much more a runner than a passer so his strengths don’t really align with the ASU defense very well.

If Solomon plays then the Arizona passing game should be very productive, but they really spread the ball around. Cayleb Jones, Johnny Jackson, Nate Phillips, and David Richards all have been productive and each have over 500 receiving yards on the year. If I’m throwing a dart it would be at Jones as I think he carries the most upside.

Elite Options – Anu Solomon (if he plays)

Secondary Options – Jared Baker (if Nick Wilson out), Cayleb Jones, Jerrard Randall (if Anu out)

Arizona State

This game has been a high scoring affair over the past few years and last year Arizona won 42-35. Arizona has struggled against both the run and the pass so this is a nice spot for the ASU offense. With Arizona bringing a bottom 100 pass defense to the table, Mike Bercovici is a rock solid mid-range option at QB. He’s a guy who offers some running ability and as we saw against Oregon, he has the ability to put up big performance.

The ASU WR are similar to the Arizona WR in that there’s not go to option. D.J. Foster, Devin Lucien, and Tim White all have been productive, but limit each other’s upside. At RB, Demario Richard has been a top option the entire year, but his volume has been down of late due to the presence of Kalen Ballage. However on FD, Richard’s price point has plummeted all the way down to $6,400 so if you’re looking to roll him out there that’s the spot I’d do it.

Elite Options – Mike Bercovici

Secondary Options – Demario Richard

Houston Cougars at Connecticut Huskies – *O/U *

UH

The spread and total on this one are also TBD as the status of Houston star QB Greg Ward, Jr is up in the air. With Ward injured, Kyle Postma entered and led the Cougars to a come from behind victory as he amassed almost 300 yards of total offense and two TDs. If Ward Jr. is 100% good to go then he’s an elite option as he is every week. UCONN is 75th in rushing yards allowed per game as well as allowing 4.7 YPC (89th) so this is a great matchup for an elite runner like Ward. If Ward sits then I’d expect a few more carries headed towards Kenneth Farrow. He’s always a guy who can produce TDs, but his yardage total and carries can sometimes leave something to be desired. With this potentially being Postma’s first road start, I’d expect the Cougars to lean more on Farrow and for him to top the 20 carry mark against a beatable run defense.

I’m still not entirely sure what to make of Postma. If Ward is out then he’s a guy who deserves consideration as a cheap QB2. I’m a little wary as Memphis does feature one of the nation’s worst pass defenses so I’m not fully sold he’s as good of a passer as seemed to show last Saturday. Additionally, this UCONN defense has been very good against the pass. He does look to be more of a pass first QB so along with bumping up a guy like Farrow, Demarcus Ayers also sees a small boost if Postma draws the start.

Elite Options – Greg Ward, Jr (if he plays), Kenneth Farrow (if Greg Ward out),

Secondary Options – Kyle Postma (if Ward out), Demarcus Ayers

UCONN

UCONN features an underwhelming offense and is coming off of an ugly 7-3 win over Tulane. The Cougars have featured a stout run defense but have vulnerable through the air. Bryant Shirreffs has been largely bad this season at QB for UCONN and their passing attack and their leading receiver Noel Thomas only has 1 TD on the year. The only player I’m really interested in here is Arkeel Newsome as a DK only play. He’s far too expensive on FD, but he’s just $4,900 on DK. He’s also Dan Back’s “Lock of the Week”. He’s a guy who sees heavy usage in both the running and passing game, which is a big boost on a site like DK and has topped 20 DK points in five of his last six weeks.

Elite Options – Arkeel Newsome (DK only)

Secondary Options – NONE

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels – O/U 56

LSU

What a difference two weeks makes as LSU had dreams of a national championship two weeks ago. Fast forward two weeks and there is now there is talk in Baton Rouge of firing Les Miles after losses to Alabama and Arkansas. The primary question is whether to pay up for Leonard Fournette against a top notch Ole Miss run defense. He was stuffed by Alabama and then contained by Arkansas, and now faces a matchup with an Ole Miss defense allowing just 3.2 YPC. Based on the matchup, I won’t have much exposure to him as Ole Miss has been terrific against the run all year, and even contained Derrick Henry.

UPDATE – Ole Miss is likely to be without their leading tackler in LB Denzel Nkemdiche. I’m not sure it changes things a ton as the Ole Miss front seven is still really talented, but with Booker out, there’s not a lot of high end RBs to choose from so Fournette gets a slight bump, but I’m not crazy.

Ole Miss has however been vulnerable to the pass so if LSU is going to pull off the upset then Brandon Harris will need to take advantage of this secondary. I’m not particularly interested in Harris but one of his top two WR Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre could be in store for a nice game at a cheap price point. It’s a bit of a coin flip as to which one to target, but Dural is more of the home run threat while Dupre tends to work the intermediate routes more. Ole Miss is allowing just 10.5 yards per completion (10th) so I’d lean to Dupre in this matchup.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Leonard Fournette, Malachi Dupre/Travin Dural

Ole Miss

This LSU defense hasn’t been the elite defense that we’ve seen in year’s past and Ole Miss checks in with a team total of 31 points. Although the LSU run defense hasn’t been lock down, I’m not a big fan of the Ole Miss running game so it’s tough for me trust a guy like Jaylen Walton. I tend to think more of the Rebels production will come via the pass as Ole Miss has thrown the ball 40+ times in three of their last four games. I’m not really looking at Chad Kelly as I think there are better matchups, but Laquon Treadwell is playing at an elite level. He’s notched 100+ receiving yards and at least 1 TD in five straight games, and given the appearance of a tough LSU defense, he likely goes under owned this weekend. I still prefer a guy like Juju Smith-Schuster as my top end option, but Treadwell is a viable high end GPP pivot.

Outside of Treadwell there has been no consistency with the Ole Miss receivers. However, Evan Engram is now racking up 3 to 4 receptions per game and is in play as a cheap TE on FD.

Elite Options – Laquon Treadwell (GPP)

Secondary Options – Evan Engram (FD)

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