CFB Grind Down: Week 12 - Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-22 21:06:31

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

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Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins – O/U 64

Indiana

This is a DK only game and it carries a solid total of 64 points so it’s not a game to overlook. The Hoosiers somehow have not won a conference game this year, but have given Ohio State and Michigan all they could handle. They are weak defensively but are very potent offensively, and finally have a solid shot to grab their first conference win.

Maryland has been below average against the run and the pass, and this Indiana offense has produced against far better defenses than Maryland features. Their QB Nate Sudfeld is dirt cheap on DK as he’s struggled recently. However, those struggles came against quality defenses like Iowa and Michigan, and he’s produced quality numbers against the weaker pass defenses he’s faced this year. Given his low price point and Maryland’s struggles defensively, I think he’s one of the better values as a cheap QB2 on DK.

If you’re not on board the Sudfeld train, then hop on board the Jordan Howard train as he’s returned from injury and proceeded to rip up two very good run defenses in Michigan and Iowa to the tune of 412 yards and 4 TDs over his last two games. He’s coming off of a 35 carry outing last weekend, but he had back to back 30 carry games earlier this year so I think he can continue to handle a heavy workload. With Indiana looking to finally pick up their first conference win, they should continue to lean heavily on their top offensive player in Howard.

The Indiana passing game has taken a back seat to Howard over the past two weeks, which has resulted in Ricky Jones and Simmie Cobbs continuing to be dirt cheap. Both have had their moments this season, and one of them should be in line to really outproduce their cheap salary. The problem is that it’s tough to nail down which one to target. Jones started out the year better, but Cobbs has been the better performer of late so I’d lean in his direction (not to mention stlcardinals84 loves him some Simmie).

Elite Options – Nate Sudfeld, Jordan Howard

Secondary Options – Ricky Jones, Simmie Cobbs

Maryland

The Maryland offense draws a prime matchup with a weak Indiana defense. The problem is that the Maryland offense has also been a prime matchup for most defenses, as they’re just not a good a group. Given Indiana’s defensive deficiencies as well as Maryland’s 33 point team total, if you’re willing to roll the dice in a tournament, there should be some value with the Terps. However, in terms of cash games there’s no one I really trust.

Editor’s Note: Perry Hills is out (mono) for today’s game vs. Indiana. Caleb Rowe will be starting at QB.

Their QB Perry Hills carries the most upside as he’s shown some excellent running ability, including topping 100 rushing yards against tough run defenses like Ohio State, Iowa and Penn State. The problem is that he’s an awful passer, and recently teams have been able to take away the QB run. As a result of his struggles passing, his backup Caleb Rowe has seen some playing time recently, but he’s an interception waiting to happen as well. Hills should continue to get first crack at QB and while the “strength” of Indiana’s defense has been their ability to stop the run, they are still allowing 4.7 YPC so he could back on track running the ball. Their pass defense has been brutal as they’re dead last in the nation in passing yards allowed per game, and were shredded by Jake Rudock last weekend. Given that maybe Hills can hit a deep ball or two here and really put together a nice game. I like him as a high upside tournament option but am not fully on board for cash games. His top targets in the passing game are Levern Jacobs or Amba Etta-Tawo, with Jacobs being the preferred option. He’s not a guy that can be trusted for a cash game, but he could bust out a long TD here for a tournament, and is basically minimum price.

At RB, the Terps have been RBBC lately with Wes Brown drawing the start last game. However, Brown has been suspended so Brandon Ross should reclaim the starting role. Hills takes a major chunk of the Maryland run game so even with Brown suspended, I’d only project Ross for 12 to 15 carries. He’s also struggled with fumbles, which is why he was demoted for Brown, so if he happens to fumble again he could hit the bench early.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Perry Hills, Brandon Ross, Levern Jacobs

Memphis Tigers at Temple Owls – O/U 58.5

Memphis

Memphis is coming off of a heart breaking last second loss to headChopper’s Houston Cougars, and now face a pace down game with a solid Temple defense. Doroland Dorceus is the lead Memphis ball carrier, but they’re primarily RBBC and really divide the workload up. Temple has played stingy run defense on the season, but they were ripped by USF’s Marlon Mack last weekend. Despite last weekend’s struggles and due to the unpredictability of the Memphis run game, I’d tread lightly with Dorceus as Temple’s rush defense has been solid overall on the season.

Temple has been more vulnerable to the pass so Paxton Lynch would be my favorite play from Memphis. He’s struggled to produce TDs over his past three games, but that has also resulted in a salary decrease. Temple has also struggled with dual threat QBs, Matt Davis and Quinton Flowers, over the past two weeks and Lynch can be a factor in the run game. There are other QBs I have higher on my board, but given his depressed price point, he’s a guy that is worth a look in tournaments.

Anthony Miller emerged as the top WR for the Tigers, but was forced to leave last weekend’s game with an injury. I haven’t seen an update on his injury so it’s a situation to monitor going forward. If he were to sit, a guy like Mose Frazier should see a usage boost. On FD, the TE position is very weak so Alan Cross is an option to consider at just $2,600. He’d also likely see a boost if Miller sits and got loose for a 38 yard TD last weekend.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Paxton Lynch, Anthony Miller/Mose Frazier (depending on Miller’s injury status), Alan Cross (FD)

Temple

The Memphis defense has held up well against the run, but is getting torched against the pass. They held both Kenneth Farrow and Greg Ward, Jr. in check on the ground, but allowed backup UH backup QB Kyle Postma to have a big day through the air. RB Jahad Thomas has been the anchor of this Temple offense, but he was apparently banged up after their Notre Dame, and hasn’t topped 20 carries in either of the last two games. Given that I wonder how healthy he is and when combined with Memphis’ average run defense, I’m finding myself targeting other RB in Thomas’ price range. I think he still is in play for tournaments as he’s flashed big game upside but I think there are safer options for cash games.

As mentioned the way to attack this Memphis defense has been through the air so P.J. Walker and Robby Anderson are intriguing options this weekend. Walker had a slow start to the year, but his usage is on the rise, and he showed upside against SMU (but then again who doesn’t against SMU). He also offers some running ability as well, and given Memphis’ struggles against the pass, there is some upside here. His price on FD is far too expensive for my taste, but he’s a viable option as a QB2 on DK. Anderson is his top option out wide, and his production has ticked up due to Walker’s recent improvements. He’s topped 77 yards in three of his last four games and makes for a solid cheap WR3 in all formats.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – P.J. Walker, Robby Anderson, Jahad Thomas

Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions – O/U 41.5

Michigan

There’s not a lot to be excited in this one as it checks with one of the lower totals on the day at 41.5 points. Given the shootout last weekend between Michigan and Indiana, we’ll likely see some people chase points here, but Vegas is telling us that’s a bad idea. As mentioned above, Indiana features the worst pass defense in the nation so the production from Jake Rudock, Jehu Chesson, and Amara Darboh needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Michigan has faced Rutgers and Indiana the last two weeks, who are two of the Big 10’s worst defense, and prior to those games, Rudock hadn’t topped 200 passing yards since the season opener. Penn State is no slouch defensively so I’m expecting the low scoring Michigan games that we saw earlier this year. The one exception in the UM passing would be Jake Butt on FD where a TE is required.

At RB De’Veon Smith hasn’t topped 20 carries since the 2nd week of the season so he’s very tough to trust, especially against a solid PSU defense.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Jake Butt (FD)

Penn State

I’m not a big fan of the Michigan offense, who check in as the favorites, so I’m definitely not a fan of the PSU offense with a team total under 20. The Wolverines were uncharacteristically shredded by Indiana last weekend, but I’ll take the Indiana offense over Penn State’s, and Michigan still ranks in the top 10 against both the run and the pass.

I’m a big fan of Saquon Barkley and he’s seeing big usage right now, but his price is the highest it’s been this season. I did take a second peek at him due to what Jordan Howard did to this defense last weekend. However, I’m expecting the UM defense to bounce back, and at his elevated price point, I think there are better ways to go in that upper tier of RB. Chris Godwin falls into the same category as Barkley, in that he’s playing really well right now, but this tough matchup and Vegas total have me looking elsewhere.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin

Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes – O/U 57

Purdue

Purdue checks in with a team total of 22 points, which actually seems a little high as they haven’t topped 21 points in Big 10 play, outside of the game against a terrible Nebraska defense. Purdue RB Markel Jones has been productive of late and is likely to remain the starter, but DJ Knox is expected to return and could steal a few carries. This Iowa run defense is not a unit I’d be particularly excited about targeting either.

The Purdue passing game is led by freshman David Blough and while he could be solid in the future, this is not a passing game to target unless they’re facing a bottom tier pass defense like Bowling Green or Nebraska.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

Iowa

Iowa checks in with a very high team total of almost 40 points, but the problem is nailing down where that production is going to come from. C. J. Beathard has topped 20 FD points in consecutive games, primarily due to his legs as he has three rushing TDs in that span. Purdue has struggled against both the run and pass so while he’s not a guy that can be trusted in cash games, he’s in play as a low dollar option in a large field tournament, especially as a QB2 on DK. His top WR Matt VandeBerg produces solid yardage, but has shown zero TD upside, and while Tevaun Smith has flashed big play ability in the past, it hasn’t been there this year.

Purdue has particularly struggled against the run, and this is a run first Iowa offense so this is where most of the production should come from. Leshun Daniels, Jr. re-emerged last weekend with a monster game against a solid Minnesota rushing defense as he had 26 carries for 195 yards and three TDs. He was the starter to begin the year but was outplayed by Jordan Canzeri and then was injured. In his absence, we’ve seen Canzeri as well as Akrum Wadley bust out for huge games. In fact, according to ESPN, Iowa is the first FBS team since LSU in 1997 on which three backs rushed for 195 yards or more in different games.

Wadley and Canzeri have been banged up over the past few weeks so the question boils down to how much workload Daniels gets with those two back in the fold. Daniels is listed as a co-starter with Canzeri on the depth chart this week so that is where our focus should be. Purdue is allowing 5.3 YPC so if one of them gets a heavy workload there is GPP winning upside here. Given what we’ve seen from Daniels over the past two weeks, he’s where I’m looking to take some tournament shots, but he’s still somewhat risky for cash games due to Canzeri’s presence. There’s also the fact that this is Senior Day for Iowa so Canzeri is very likely to be play at least some role.

Elite Options – Leshun Daniels (GPP)

Secondary Options – C. J. Beathard, Jordan Canzeri

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies – O/U 61.5

North Carolina

North Carolina heads to Blacksburg on fire as they’ve ripped off nine straight wins. Their defense has been improved and their QB, Marquise Williams is rolling right now. He has 29 or more FD points in five of his last seven games, and has become one of the more dynamic dual threat QBs in the nation. UNC checks in with a solid team total of 33 points and Virginia Tech has struggled with dual threat QBs at times this year. The Hokies’ defense allowed 347 total yards to the Ohio State QBs, 169 rushing yards and two TDs to ECU QB James Summers, and 379 total yards and 4 TDs to Duke QB Thomas Sirk. Based on those numbers, this sets up very well for Williams to continue firing on all cylinders.

The UNC wide receivers can be very boom or bust so they are better suited as GPP plays rather than cash games plays due to their volatility. Ryan Switzer and Mack Hollins both have flashed big upside lately, but also the ability to completely disappear. Virginia Tech has been much better against the pass (9th nationally) than the run so I’m not in love with either this weekend.

I also think we see a fired up Virginia Tech defense and raucous crowd as this is Frank Beamer’s last home game before he retires at the end of the year. It’s narrative street but I think they play with a bunch of energy. I’ll primarily be limiting my exposure to Williams, but Elijah Hood has been very good and Virginia Tech has coughed up some big rushing totals this year. The primary downside to Hood is that his ceiling on carries is basically 20. He’s been able to find the endzone a ton lately so he’s certainly in play, but his upside tends to be capped by his volume.

Elite Options – Marquise Williams

Secondary Options – Elijah Hood

Virginia Tech

The Hokies check in with a team total of 28 points here and I expect them to come out amped up in Frank Beamer’s final home game. UNC has shown big improvements defensively, but most of those improvements have come against the pass as they’re still allowing over 200 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC. Virginia Tech RB Travon McMillian has burst onto the scene over the past three weeks, averaging almost 29 carries per game and has topped 100 rushing yards in each game. Based on his recent performance as well as UNC’s porous run defense, I think he’s a rock solid option. However, his price is really elevated on both FD and DK so he’s not an elite option. His price is much more affordable on FantasyAces so I do like him quite a bit there.

UNC hasn’t faced many top notch passing attacks, but they’ve shown solid improvement and Michael Brewer has lacked upside at the QB position. If you’re looking to target the Virginia Tech passing offense I’d rather target Bucky Hodges. On FD, Hodges is one of the better TE options as the position is very thin. Isaiah Ford is their leading wide receiver, but he’s TD reliant and there are better options at similar price points.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Travon McMillian, Bucky Hodges

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