CFB Grind Down: Week 12 - Early Slate - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-21 10:56:24

Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes – O/U 53

Michigan State

Connor Cook left last week’s game with an injury, but is expected to be good to go for this showdown with the Buckeyes. Ohio State has played a pretty soft schedule so it’s hard to know how much stock to put into their defensive rankings. However, there is a ton of talent on this defense, and given what we saw last year, this isn’t a defensive I want to target very much. Add on a team total under 20 and the Spartans offense is mostly a fade for me.

They are expected to be trailing throughout so Cook should be forced to the air in the second half. That should mean plenty of targets for his top WR Aaron Burbridge. With Cook injured last week, he was very quiet, but he’s otherwise produced big stat lines all season long. He won’t come cheap so there are other spots I’d prefer to spend his type of salary, but I don’t mind him as a tournament play. Outside of Burbridge, there’s not much else I want on this Spartans offense, with the exception of maybe Josiah Price as a punt TE on FD.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Aaron Burbridge

Ohio State

While I don’t love the Michigan State side of the ball, I do think the Buckeyes’ offense makes for a great target on Saturday. It’s hard to go wrong with a guy like Ezekiel Elliott as he’s so consistent. He’s coming off of a monster game last weekend and has a rushed for 100+ rushing yards in every game this year. He produced 154 rushing yards and two TDs in this matchup last year, and is a weekly top tier option at RB.

The strength of Michigan State’s run defense is their ability to stop the run so I’ll likely have the most exposure to the Ohio State passing attack. While MSU has contained the run well, they’ve really struggled in the secondary and this sets up as big game from J. T. Barrett at a somewhat reduced price point. In this matchup last year, he threw for 300 yards and three TDs, while also adding 86 rushing yards and two TDs. He wasn’t asked to do much passing last weekend Illinois, but I think that changes this weekend.

With MSU’s struggles in the secondary, I really like Michael Thomas this weekend and his price point is very affordable around the industry. He’s OSU top WR and has scored a TD in each of his past three games and has 8 total on the season. He’s one of my favorite options on the slate and a guy I’ll have exposure to in all formats. I think OSU makes several big plays down the field in this one so maybe even a guy like Jalin Marshall busts a big play.

Elite Options – J. T. Barrett, Michael Thomas, Ezekiel Elliott

Secondary Options – Jalin Marshall

Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers – O/U 40

Northwestern

This game checks in with the lowest total on the slate at just 40 points, and Northwestern is predicted to score just two touchdowns against a tough Wisconsin defense. The Northwestern passing game hasn’t topped 200 passing yards since September so they are an easy avoid. The only player worth a potential look here is Justin Jackson, who has finally gotten back on track with two solid performances. His volume is back, which is key, as he’s averaged 26 carries over the past two games, but this is another very tough test against a Badgers’ defense allowing just 3.2 YPC (12th) and 97.6 rushing YPG (4th). Given the matchup, I’d prefer to look elsewhere, but at least the volume looks to be back going forward.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Justin Jackson

Wisconsin

The Wisconsin side of the ball isn’t much better as they have a team total of just 25 points, and will likely be without starting RB Corey Clement once again. I’m not a weather guy and haven’t factored weather into any of this analysis so be sure to check the RG forums on Saturday for a weather report from Kevin Roth. However, the player blurb on FD, indicates a potential snow storm heading to Wisconsin on Saturday so that is certainly a situation to keep an eye on.

With Clement out, Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal will once again shoulder the load in the back field. However, with Clement out, they’ve struggled to run the ball at times, and Northwestern is a rock solid defensive team. I’d lean towards Dare over Deal, but he’s an average option at best.

With Clement out earlier this year, the Badgers turned to their passing game more and guys like Alex Erickson and Troy Fumagalli both benefitted. Assuming the weather is fine, Erickson is a solid PPR option on a site like DK, while Fumagalli is in play as a cheap TE on FD.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Troy Fumagalli, Alex Erickson, Dare Ogunbowale

UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes – O/U 56.5

UCLA

The Bruins will head on the road to face a tough Utah defense that has been particularly effective against the run. This doesn’t profile as a quality matchup for UCLA’s top RB Paul Perkins as Utah is allowing just 3.6 YPC. He has managed to grind out solid games against teams like Stanford, but his upside is limited by this matchup.

Utah’s run defense will put pressure on young UCLA QB Josh Rosen to have a productive afternoon against the more beatable Utah secondary that is 91st in passing yards allowed per game. He’s topped 300 passing yards in four of his past five games, and had 57 pass attempts last game. Utah is a tough place to play so I’d prefer him more as a QB2 on DK than on a single site like FD. His two primary WR this year have been Thomas Duarte and Jordan Payton. Both are in play, but I typically side with Jordan Payton.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Josh Rosen, Paul Perkins, Jordan Payton/Thomas Duarte

Utah

The big news for Utah is that their star RB Devontae Booker will miss the remainder of the regular season. Prior to the news, he was my favorite RB on the slate due to his usage and the fact that UCLA has been vulnerable to the run. An unproven Joe Williams is expected to step in as the starting RB, and has just 19 carries for 78 yards on the season. He’s minimum price on both sites, and especially attractive on DK to open up salary. There is some risk as his workload is still TBD, but much of that risk is mitigated by his minimum price point.

The loss of Booker is a pretty big hit to the Utah offense as he was the guy they leaned on. Their QB Travis Wilson is more of a game manager, but he does provide solid running upside, and maybe he takes on a bigger role in the running game down the stretch. They haven’t been a big passing offense so far this season so I’m curious to see what the loss of Booker does to their run/pass ratio. Maybe guys like Britain Covey and Kenneth Scott see some more passes come their way, but they’re deep GPP plays only.

Elite Options – Joe Williams (DK)

Secondary Options – Joe Williams (FD), Travis Wilson (DK)

USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks – O/U 71.5

USC

This game checks in with the highest total on the slate at 71.5 points and is a game to grab plenty of exposure too. Oregon is making some improvements defensively, but overall this is still a unit that can be attacked.

Cody Kessler started the year on fire, but has really hit the skids lately. His price point is down and the matchup against Oregon’s 120th ranked passing defense is great, but his productivity has been down for well over a month. I don’t mind him in tournaments, but he’s a guy I’m a little leery of in cash games. In terms of gaining access to the USC passing attack, I’m taking the route of targeting JuJu Smith. He’s battled injuries lately, but has continued to produce as he’s notched a TD in each of the past two weeks. With the Oregon secondary struggling and this high game total, he’s my favorite WR on this slate.

It sounds like Tre Madden will miss this game so Ronald Jones and Justin Davis should shoulder the load. Both are likely to see carries, but Jones has been seeing more of a 60/40 split so he’s the preferred target against an Oregon defense allowing 4.8 YPC. If Madden happens to suit up then this is a situation to avoid as there are just too many mouths to feed at RB.

Elite Options – Juju Smith-Schuster

Secondary Options – Cody Kessler, Ronald Jones II

Oregon

The Oregon offense has been rejuvenated by the return of Vernon Adams and Vegas likes them to have a productive afternoon as they have a team total of 38 points. While the return of Adams has sparked the Ducks, Royce Freeman is still the key cog to their offense. He’s topped 100 rushing yards in six straight games, including against three of the better run defenses in the Pac12 in Stanford, Washington and Arizona State. USC has played solid run defense this year, but they lost two of their starting LBs to season ending injury in their last game against Colorado, which is a boost to the Oregon running game. Freeman is a top 3 option at RB on this slate and one of the RBs I’ll have the most exposure too.

USC is also battling some depth issues at safety and is 88th in passing yards allowed per game. Despite the return of Vernon Adams, this Oregon offense has continued to be run heavy as he attempted only 12 passes last week and 29 the week prior. However, he’s flashed big play ability in the passing game and has 10 passing TDs over his last three weeks. Darren Carrington has returned from suspension and provided the big deep threat that Oregon was missing as he’s topped 100 receiving yards in three of his four games. On a non-PPR site like FD, he’s a great option. Bralon Addison has also seen an uptick in production with the return of Vernon Adams, and is a secondary option to consider.

Elite Options – Royce Freeman, Darren Carrington

Secondary Options – Vernon Adams, Bralon Addison

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Clemson Tigers – O/U 48

Wake Forest

Wake Forest managed just 7 points last week against Notre Dame, and now faces a similar top notch defense in Clemson. With a team total of just under 10 points, and a lack of playmakers on offense this is a team that can be safely avoided as there is little to no upside.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

Clemson

Wake Forest’s defense is better than their offense, but they’re still likely to completely overwhelmed by a far superior Clemson offense. The big injury situation to monitor here is the status of Wayne Gallman, who is questionable. If he sits it’s likely that Zac Brooks would draw the start, and he would immediately become a punt option as he’s minimum price on both sites. He’s produced 5 TDs on limited touches this season, and would be the safer punt option over a guy like Joe Williams, although he probably wouldn’t see the volume of Williams.

Deshaun Watson started the year slow, but has been on a tear since Week 7. The only potential hiccup to slow him here would be the likely blowout factor that will limit his playing time. However, he could easily rack up 4 to 5 total TDs prior to hitting the bench, and that is especially true if Wayne Gallman sits as he would likely take on an even bigger role. This slate lacks the high end QB options so despite the potential blowout, Watson is one of the safer options at QB on this slate.

Despite the loss of Mike Williams, Watson has plenty of weapons in Artavis Scott, Deon Cain and Jordan Leggett. Scott is a PPR machine, but hasn’t been able to find the endzone very often. I typically prefer him on a PPR site like DK, but his price is far too low on FD and he’s likely to be a very popular play at just $5,300. Most of the TDs have gone to Cain and Leggett, and both are very much in play. Cain has scored in three straight games and has been a prominent part of the Clemson offense since early October. His price is still very low on both FD and DK, whereas Leggett is one of the top TE options on FD if you’re spending.

Elite Options – Deshaun Watson, Artavis Scott/Deon Cain, Zac Brooks (if he starts), Jordan Leggett

Secondary Options – Wayne Gallman (if he plays)

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