CFB Grind Down: Week 12 - Early Slate - Page 4

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-20 15:18:57

West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas Jayhawks – O/U 59.5

West Virginia

This is a FD only game but don’t overlook it as the West Virginia running game is in a great spot. West Virginia is the lucky team to draw the matchup with the Kansas Jayhawks, who are the worst team in the nation. Their offense is horrific and they are getting shredded on defense by both the pass and run. West Virginia’s passing game has really struggled of late so they’v become a run heavy offense that has attempted only 35 pass attempts combined over their last two weeks. That formula has resulted in two WVU wins so I’d expect a similar approach against a KU team allowing 5.6 YPC. As a result Wendell Smallwood is one of my favorite RBs on FD and he should be in for a monster day. He does tend to get vultured by Skyler Howard and Rushel Shell, but he’s topped 160 rushing yards in consecutive games, and should make that three in a row in this one. I love the WVU running game in this one and think Smallwood finally finds the endzone multiple times. Rushel Shell isn’t near the talent of Smallwood but he’ll still likely continue to receive 10-14 carries a game. He’s cheap and should be able to find the endzone at a cheap price point.

Skyler Howard draws an elite matchup with Kansas, but the question is whether he can be trusted as he disappointed in a great matchup against Texas Tech just two weeks ago. I prefer the WVU ground game, but this KU secondary is also 126th in passing yards allowed per game so there will be plenty of opportunities for Howard and his WR if they don’t take a run heavy approach. I don’t mind taking a shot with him in a tournament, but would much prefer the Smallwood route for cash games. Shelton Gibson has disappeared at WR due to the passing game’s struggles as he’s produced donuts in consecutive weeks. He’s still WVU’s top WR on the year so he’s where I’d look to in the WVU passing game, but due to the run heavy nature of the WVU offense recently, he certainly comes with some risk. Jovon Durante would be the other WVU WR to potentially know as he does have some big play ability, but Gibson has been the much better performer overall on the season.

Elite Options – Wendell Smallwood

Secondary Options – Skyler Howard, Shelton Gibson, Rushel Shell

Kansas

Kansas is an all around awful team, and while this WVU defense isn’t great – you don’t want any exposure to this KU offense.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers – O/U 53.5

Duke

Duke heads on the road to face a Virginia team with a team total of around 25 points. The question here is the status of Duke QB Thomas Sirk. Right it sounds like he’s going to play but that his backup Parker Boheme will also see some snaps. For DFS purposes that is exactly what we don’t want to see and that is a stay away unless Sirk is ruled out or unless it comes out that Sirk will see all the snaps.

Both Sirk and Boheme have been a big factor in the running game so the Duke RB are not attractive fantasy options and no Duke RB topped 10 carries last week. Max McCaffrey is their “lead” receiver but they really spread the ball around so he’s not a great fantasy option either. On FD, Braxton Deaver is minimum price if you need a true minimum price punt TE.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

Virginia

Matt Johns is one of the more unexciting Qbs in DFS and I’m not falling for the 4 TD trap from last weekend. This Duke passing defense has struggled of late and the two Virginia players that I typically give looks to are Canaan Severin and Taquan Mizzell. Mizzell is typically a guy I look to more on a PPR site like DK as he does most of his damage out of the backfield. However, at just $6,400 on FD, I’ll have some GPP exposure to him. He has 17 receptions over his last two games and has at least 5 in each of his past four games. He’ll also chip in 15 to 20 carries in the running game so he’s flashed some upside at times this year.

After being quiet for a few weeks, Severin busted out with a monster 3 TD last weekend. He’s produced two big yardage days this season, but has otherwise been mostly held in check. Due to his volatility, he’s a guy I’d only take a shot in a large field low dollar tournament and I definitely wouldn’t chase his big game in a cash game. This Duke passing defense has been exposed a bit and Virginia does have a team total of almost 28 points. Based on that I could see one of Mizzell or Severin coming through with a nice game here, with my lean being towards Mizzell due to his high usage in both the running and passing games.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Taquan Mizzell, Canaan Severin

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